THE STATUS OF MIDTERM ELECTION CONTESTS

The November midterm elections will see voters coming out to decide hundreds of federal, state, and county level positions. Across the nation, Democrat officials are predicting a “Blue Wave” of heavy turnout supporting their candidates.

This election is historically a referendum on the president. There is a strong relationship between presidential approval nationwide and midterm outcomes. According to a recent Reuters poll, 38 percent of voters approve of Trump’s performance while 60 percent disapprove. 

This year, there is only a narrow path for Democrats to retake control of the Senate. But recent polling shows a strong chance to capture the House of Representatives.

This commentary will focus on the political landscape in Pennsylvania and in Washington County. According to POLITICO, “Few places epitomize Democrats’ recent challenges — and hopes for 2026 — as well as Pennsylvania. Trump flipped the state back in 2024. Democrats lost a Senate seat and every statewide row office — and failed to make inroads in the state legislature.”

However, Commonwealth Democrats were encouraged by the results of the 2025 election. SPOTLIGHT PA reported, “In November, the party retained three state Supreme Court justices by more than 20 points. Down ballot, gains were made in Republican Bucks County, where the first district attorney running as a Democrat was elected since the 19^th century. In Erie County, a Democratic unseated the Republican incumbent county executive by a margin of 25 points.”

SPOTLIGHT interviewed an encouraged Democratic State Party Chair Eugene DePasquale. “We are focused on bread-and-butter economic issues. People are struggling in their daily lives. The Trump administration is just throwing more gas on the fire.”

Pennsylvania Republican leaders argue that the real affordability crisis in America takes place in Democratic strongholds like New York, Illinois, and California. These states have higher taxes and housing costs. Republican officials claim that only by electing their candidates can Pennsylvania avoid higher expenses.

Statewide, the real issue for Republicans in these mid-term elections is getting their supporters to the polls. When Trump is not on the ballot, participation by casual voters who support him often disappears. For the upcoming election, the momentum lies with Democrats.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, with presidential aspirations, is running against Republican State Treasurer, Stacy Garrity, a strong ally of president Trump. While Garrity, a combat veteran and business leader, has won state elections, she is not expected to unseat Shapiro. In early polling, Shapiro is running 15-17 percentage points ahead of his rival.

For years, in Washington County and across the country, there has been an alarming lack of knowledge regarding local politics compared to national campaigns. Much of the voting public does not get energized by local news. Typically, unless there is a catalyst (like attempts to bring a data center to South Strabane Twp.), social media is not engaged with local politics.   

Local Democratic leaders hope that this year will be different, even though no county offices are on the ballot. They believe that the widespread dissatisfaction with the president and his anti-democratic policies will produce an increased interest in Democrat candidates who represent Washington County.

Our Republican Congressman, Guy Reschenthaler, is running for a fifth term. He is a strong supporter of President Trump and has worked his way up the national party leadership to chief deputy whip in the House.

Reschenthaler has come under repeated criticism for spending most of his time in Washington DC and being a “no-show” in the district. He does not hold in-person townhall meetings for his constituents.

The Democratic candidate to oppose Reschenthaler in the 14^th District is a new face, Alan Bradstock. A native of Donora and a graduate of Ringgold High School, Bradstock went on to graduate from Washington & Jefferson College with high honors.  He served in the U.S. Army as a helicopter pilot, and following his military career worked for the FBI. More recently, Bradstock worked as an auditor for the large financial advisor, KPMG.

Bradstock has proven to be the ideal hardworking, well-qualified, moderate candidate needed to unseat Reschenthaler. However, political observers point out his uphill battle in our heavily Republican 14th District. Reschenthaler defeated Chris Dziados by more than 30 points in 2024.

There is no announced Democrat to oppose State Senator Camera Bartolotta in the 46^th Senate District. To date, the only political kerfuffle has been between the local and state Republican parties.

In January, the Washington County Republican Party executive committee issued a 21-3 vote of no confidence for Bartolotta. The local party was upset with her marriage to the former Democratic Speaker of the House, Bill DeWeese. They also disagreed with her support for Haitian immigrants in Charleroi.

The State Republican Party supports Bartolotta and declared the local vote null and void. Local Republicans rejected the state decision. Bartolotta will face a primary challenge from Al Buchta, who lives in Canonsburg. Neutral observers of this Republican dog fight believe Bartolotta’s position in the primary is secure.

This race will not affect party control of the Pennsylvania Senate. However, it highlights the fractured Republican party on issues like aggressive immigration crackdowns, economic policy, and support for all things Trump.

While Democrats are hopeful for large gains in the midterms, they must keep a close eye on Trump’s plan to nationalize elections. On February 3, nine months from the midterms, the president announced, “We should take over the voting in at least 15 places.”

 

 

   

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE REQUIRES OUR FULL ATTENTION

 

For my fellow traditionalists who love print newspapers, writing notes in cursive, and reading books made of paper, I have a warning and some thoughts. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is taking over the world. Now is not the time to complain about its disruptions or to ignore its presence. That reaction is exactly what the AI developers, venture capitalists, and certain government officials with an authoritarian bent hope you will do.

Each of us should study AI’s potential and its dangers. We should be knowledgeable enough to take a firm position on its further development and deployment.

For those who think AI is an unnecessary intrusion into our sedate, predictable lives, consider the 1811 Luddite movement of British textile workers. As part of this protest against industrialization, machinery was destroyed and riots ensued. Within five years, the Luddites were a distant memory and the industrial revolution took over the western world.  The United States was transformed from an agrarian society into an urban, industrialized one.

Skipping forward to the development of the internet, in 1992 a unique means of communication utilized by a few researchers was transformed into the “Information Superhighway.” Under a program championed by then Senator, Al Gore, seed money was provided to link computer networks in universities, governments, and industries around the world.

At first, the messy joint effort to develop the internet was encouraging. It was spearheaded by an early idealism that the new technology would empower individuals and unleash a wave of creativity for the benefit of mankind. The infant internet was praised for being decentralized and democratic. It was called a television station without producers and a newspaper without editors.

However, the internet took a dark turn that few saw coming. The erosion of privacy and the inability to protect personal data is now pervasive. The emergence of giant corporations (Google, Meta, Amazon), larger than nation states, has created a new class of oligarchs in America. The collapse of “old media” (newspapers, magazines, non-partisan news shows) has produced a society based on fake news and conspiracy theories rather than hard facts. The growth of tribal politics and the loss of a consensus reality is encouraged by social media.

The book to read on the downward spiral of the internet is Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It by journalist Corey Doctorow. Doctorow believes that “The once-glorious internet has degenerated into “platforms” that rose to dominance because they delivered convenient and delightful services efficiently and reliably. But once we were locked in to those services, the tech bosses turned on us, relying on our dependency to keep us using the services.”

In spite of this sad state of affairs, Doctorow believes that there is a way to take the internet back from the tech giants. Each of us must learn about the algorithms that lock us into platforms and how to avoid their “siren call.” Governments must have the fortitude to use antitrust laws and regulations to break the monopolies, prevent fraud, and protect privacy.

While we deal with the internet’s failures, now is not the time to ignore AI or hand the keys over to the developers and financers without controls. AI poses more serious consequences to society and deserves our full attention.

The lightning speed with which AI has developed was not predicted by those who study its transformation. Early neural networks (the kind that underpin ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini) for decades did not work as well as more mainstream machine-learning techniques. It turned out to be a question of scale.

Building bigger neural networks was not easy, and no one knew whether it would work. Once these networks were fed an abundance of computer capacity to perform large numbers of computations, everything changed.

In 2012 a program running on only two Nvidia graphics chips in a developer’s bedroom left all of the conventional models in the dust. Fourfold annual growth led to sixteen-fold over two years, 64-fold over three years. This is how we progressed from a promising bedroom experiment to data centers the size of Manhattan. The models’ predictions continued to get better as their scale increased.

Bigger is expensive. Citigroup estimates that total AI investment globally will be at least $7.8 trillion between 2025 and 2030. No one knows when the rate of improvement will diminish or disappear. The ultimate result could be to reach “superintelligence,” a hypothetical form of AI that surpasses human intelligence across all fields, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills.

The dangers of superintelligence have been the subject of many science fiction novels. The developers lose control over the technology leading AI to pursue goals harmful to humanity. To prevent such an outcome international regulation must be developed to ensure that AI improvements are gradual and safe.

AI is not the internet. The internet shares information. The little understood AI technology independently interprets and acts on the information. We cannot afford to let AI develop without oversight.

The best solution may be the one advanced by the Economist in a recent Special Report, “Stop Panicking and Start Preparing.” Use AI to improve all aspects of your life. Stay on top of the latest developments and support controls and regulations. The Economist concludes that each of us needs to be “a cynical optimist,” as the world changes before our eyes.

 

 

 

MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL STAYS STRONG UNDER SIEGE

 

Some emotional national stories are captured by news cycles/social media, and keep growing. I am referring to scenarios that pull at the heart strings. These stories are more likely to bring Americans closer together as we share our common humanity rather than to increase our political and social divide.

Examples include Lindsay Vonn attempting to compete in the Olympics with a torn ACL. This story touched us all as an act of personal courage. Another is the kidnapping of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of Savannah Guthrie. These unthinkable circumstances lead us to consider such a horrible event in our own lives.

Also in focus, is the crisis in the twin cities, Minneapolis/St. Paul (MSP). The unprecedented “Operation Metro Surge.” conducted by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) brought normal activity to a halt. This situation compels us to contemplate such an overwhelming disruption in our lives.

This largest operation in ICE history began in January. At its peak, roughly 2,400 federal agents from ICE and other agencies were deployed. (For comparison, 300 agents were activated in much larger Chicago.) The terrifying effect on MSP has included the killing of two American citizens, the use of military tactics against protesters by untrained officers, and the violation of the basic civil rights of immigrants.

This commentary will focus on what the ICE operation looks like where citizens live and work. The impressions I am relating come from the journalists on site (There were probably as many reporters from every major news source as there were ICE agents.) and from a close relative, with Washington connections, who now lives in MSP. My intent is not to present a formal legal analysis. What follows is a description of ordinary people, reacting to a situation that is as close to a modern domestic war zone as our nation has experienced.

We all like to talk about the weather. After the ICE operation began conditions in MSP were extremely cold with temperatures and wind chills well below zero. Hypothermia was a real concern, making it unsafe for prolonged exposure. Nonetheless, as the ICE operation progressed, many thousands of local citizens turned out each day to help those under duress and to demonstrate against the brutal crackdown.

Originally inhabited by the Dakota and Ojibwe, MSP was settled in the 19th century largely by Scandinavians and Germans. Today, it is a hub for large Somali, Mexican, and Hmong communities. 

According to a reporter from New York Magazine, “It is the misfortune of ICE to have invaded the state with the second-highest level of social trust.” The citizens of MSP know how to organize and take care of each other. Local elected officials, local news agencies, small business and corporations, churches and charities all made drastic changes to their schedules to help those under siege. Average citizens reported that between their regular responsibilities and volunteering they often worked 18-20 hours each day.

Thousands of concerned citizens buy groceries and walk dogs for potential ICE targets. The church, Iglesia Dios Habla Hoy, dropped off more than 12,000 boxes of essentials in six weeks. Volunteer shuttles drive sick immigrants to doctor appointments. Volunteer tow trucks return vehicles to their owners who fled on foot from ICE officers seeking to arrest them.

In every residential community, average citizens use whistles as a nonviolent signaling device to immediately alert their neighbors who might be the subject of a raid. The whistles draw support to the scene for community protests. Ordinary people juggle daily life to look out for each other, however they can.

All over MSP, a common sight was three SUVs moving in tandem with 12 agents, suddenly ducking into a side street and surrounding a house. To counter this activity, a sophisticated tracking system was developed to pinpoint the location of ICE vehicles as they departed the federal building.

N., our relative in MSP, had some interesting facts and observations to share. He carries a whistle on his key chain and a designated phone number in his mobile to warn of ICE activity. His young child asks questions about why the ICE personnel look so threatening compared to the local police she has come to know and respect.

N. believes that ICE is in his community in such large, intimidating numbers to “stoke fear and lower the voting rates in the mid-term elections.” He reports that since the shootings “Trump/MAGA supporters are few.” N. points out that one underreported fact is that “The community has organized a volunteer network to watch over the memorials for the two killed protesters, Renee Good and Alex Pretti. Anyone is able to come mourn, reflect, and embrace their community without judgment.”

A major takeaway for N. is that you do not need to be protesting to make a difference. “There are ways of showing your support like making grocery runs for our neighbors.” He believes the impact of local businesses was under-reported. “Local shops are donating their profits, cooking meals for free, closing for a day of solidarity.”

N.’s final thought is that “This is not about left vs. right or about criminals. It’s about fear. Our devotion and hope are stronger.”

On February 12, the massive ICE surge began winding down. Mayor Jacop Frey proclaimed: “They thought they could break us, but a love for our neighbors and a resolve to endure can outlast an occupation.”

 

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INSANITY IS MAKING THE SAME MISTAKE OVER AGAIN

 

The Republican Commissioners, Sherman and Janis, are about to repeat one of the most embarrassing public relations disasters of their administration. On March 12, they will sponsor their second annual Washington County Real Estate Expo. Instead of burying the memory of the under supported and badly planned, first Expo, our majority commissioners have decided to double down on a bad idea. There is no evidence that the results will be different.

The problems associated with the first Expo were well publicized.

First, the commissioners paid HGTV television actor Hilary Farr more than $30,000 to appear as the keynote speaker for their inaugural Real Estate Expo. According to reporting in the Observer Reporter, “the county also paid for Farr to fly first class on an airline of her choosing and stay at a Pittsburgh hotel of her choice while being transported to and from the event in a chauffeured luxury vehicle.” She was only on site for several hours.

Farr is a British-Canadian designer, businesswoman, television host and former actress. She now spends her time renovating her Toronto home, after leaving the reality television show Love It or Leave It.  

Farr lacked qualifications or knowledge to address the real estate/economic issues facing South Western Pennsylvania. She was hired as celebrity eye candy to shake some hands and amuse the participants.

Second, following the Expo, an initial audit by County Controller, Heather Sheatler, revealed that the Expo did not break even and was supported by unrelated grant funding, The initial Expo cost was $122,877 and only $71,000 was collected from vendors.

The $50,000 deficit was eventually recouped, well after the event. Sherman and Janis, hat in hand, went to Chapman Properties (who has now received $6 million from the county for demolition expenses for the Costco project) and to the county’s Tourism Promotion Agency (with whom the county now has a running battle for control) asking for substantial contributions.

Minority commissioner, Larry Maggi, was critical of these actions. He told this newspaper, “I didn’t think county government should be going out and asking for contributions with vendors we’re doing business with to fund an Expo.”

Third, the audit by Controller Sheatler revealed that the majority commissioners had opened an unauthorized bank account, not subject to Controller review, to fund the first Expo. More troubling, withdrawals were improperly made from the newly formed Blight Mitigation Fund to bankroll the Expo.

The announcement of a second Real Estate Expo on March 12 was met with skepticism. Commissioner Larry Maggi tried to block the no bid hiring of Richardson Communications for consulting services and Drive Marketing Inc. to promote the event. He also complained that county resources and staff were being improperly utilized to organize Expo II. It is unclear how or how much the private companies are being paid.

While the Expo is only a month away, a posted schedule of programing does not exist. There is a general description of presenters to include the two commissioners, local county agencies and an unnamed “array of industry experts.” As of February 8, the identity of the keynote speaker has not been announced. A participant searching for interesting sessions to attend is out of luck.

It is inevitable that Sherman and Janis’s ill-advised Expo II will be compared with the upcoming Washington County Chamber of Commerce Member Forum to be held on February 19, 2026. The county recently terminated the longstanding economic development contract with the Chamber. The majority commissioners now refuse to cooperate with the Chamber. If last year’s event is a guide, they will not attend the Forum and will lose the opportunity to network with its many business leaders.

The Chamber’s Forum is a well-established occurrence that presents a broad range of issues of interest to our diverse business community. This year, Dan Rooney III, Vice President of Business Development, Pittsburgh Steelers, will be the featured speaker. He will bring the regional business community up to date on the opportunities afforded by the April 2026 Pittsburgh NFL Draft.  Other scheduled panels of announced experts include: 1) the region’s economic outlook, 2) infrastructure development, and 3) workforce development.

Washington County only needs one well-organized winter event to discuss economic development. Sherman and Janis’s vanity project should not have been repeated.

 

 

ADJUSTING TO A CHANGE OF SCENERY

 

When my wife and I decided to move, we were told to prepare for a few difficult months. Because we were traveling less than a mile, at our own pace, in excellent fall weather, we laughed off the warnings.

We were wrong. Leaving a three story 1875 home in East Washington for a top floor condominium in South Strabane Township was a challenge. It was physically exhausting and emotionally stressful; beyond anything we imagined.

Our extensive planning was never enough to anticipate all the unforeseen issues. The parting with cherished items was painful and often time- consuming. The tedious packing, loading our car, and unpacking made us cringe at another banker box.  Waking up in the middle of the night with yet another task for our checklist was a common occurrence. Moreover, the mental adjustment to a new, smaller living space, and the inconvenience of owning two homes still has us running in circles.

The move was designed to simplify our lives. We are both in our mid-70s with ailments that make step-climbing a painful adventure and outdoor maintenance an unpleasant chore. Single level condominium living, where the property was professionally maintained, seemed like the answer. However, all the work in getting there was as arduous as running a marathon with little training.

We have now learned that the two abutting Washington County communities of East Washington and South Strabane, are nothing alike. Our community of 22 years, the Borough of East Washington, is only 0.45 square miles. It is surrounded on three​ ​sides​ ​by​ ​the​ ​City​ ​of​ ​Washington​ ​and​ also ​borders​ ​South​ ​​Strabane​ ​Township​ ​to​ ​the​ ​north.​ Because of the many older, ornate homes, the East Washington Historic District is listed on the National Register of Historic Places.  Only 2000 people live in the borough. The community prides itself in its residential setting. The zoning regulations discourage commercial enterprises.

South Strabane offers a very different living environment. It encompasses 23 square miles with a population of 10,000. Due to its location astride Interstates 70 and 79, it has undergone rapid commercial and residential development. Modern retail centers and the Tanger Outlet Mall are within its borders. A Costco store is planned for the site of the former Washington Mall in South Strabane. A proposal to place an AI data center within the township on 1,500 acres owned by CNX Resources is being considered, despite objections from concerned residents.

South Strabane contains several high-rise buildings (including senior citizen facilities) and extensive commercial structures. It was encouraging when a friend and former South Strabane Supervisor forwarded a video of the new aerial fire truck practicing rescue techniques at the top floor of the unit we were about to purchase. The video helped convince my wife that she could rest easily, many stories above the ground.

After moving in, we were shocked by news reports that the new South Strabane board of supervisors planned to reopen the budget process and terminate the contract for the lifesaving aerial truck. We were prepared to voice our objections when we learned that further discussions apparently convinced the supervisors to retain this valuable piece of equipment.

However, the supervisors now plan to eliminate a public safety specialist from the payroll.  As reported in the Observer-Reporter at a recent budget meeting, “the South Strabane Fire Department Chief sharply criticized the decision.”

Tax rates and budgets are determined by local township supervisors. South Strabane has a larger tax base with many commercial contributors. Consequently, the tax rate (including a “fire tax” add-on to help pay for the new aerial truck and other funding to create and maintain a professional fire department) is much lower than East Washington. The total millage in the township for 2026 is 1.85 mills and, in the borough, 2.43 mills.

East Washington has significantly higher municipal taxes, but must still rely on the City of Washington for fire protection. South Strabane taxpayers pay lower municipal taxes for benefits that now include a full-time professional fire and public safety department to respond quickly to all emergencies.

It makes little sense for the current supervisors, in a thriving and growing community, with an expanding tax base, to reduce public safety funding that protects everyone. Residents of South Strabane should be alarmed by this misguided plan to reduce services.

We were not familiar with how condominiums are administered before moving into our unit. The condo owners elect a board of directors to make day-to-day management decisions, collect homeowners’ association fees and to help new owners like us get adjusted. These board members do an extraordinary job of keeping things running smoothly. Forty-two owners have many questions and issues. Getting information out to the owners on a timely basis is critical and time consuming.

The two indispensable individuals are the building manager and the maintenance man. Both know the inner workings of the structure and are familiar with many of the individual units. Checking with them and following their advice before making important decisions saved us time and money.

As I write this commentary, we are safely tucked away as a major snowstorm swirls around us. Two days before the storm, I looked out my office window to observe a bald eagle gilding by. While we miss our neighbors, we are beginning to become accustomed to the change in scenery. There is no confusing it with our former East Washington back yard.

IN CELEBRATION OF HUMANISM II

 

Several years ago, I penned a commentary designed to escape the troubling news of the day. The article imagined that similar to the numerous awards shows that honor actors, directors and other creative types, there should be a comparable “Hall of Fame” to honor humanists. These individuals typically exemplify the scientific method and human values. Sadly, with the Trump administration, the celebration of humanism becomes a protest, not an escape.

Our divided society pays too little attention to the uplifting contributions of humanists seeking to celebrate human worth. Throughout recorded history, humanists have explored the goodness of humanity and sought rational ways to solve human problems. Without the foundation provided by dedicated humanists, giving us enlightenment and hope, there would be no place for the talented individuals we honor in our yearly awards shows. What follows are the new nominees for my imagined Humanist Hall of Fame. 

All three of my nominees are deceased. They represent three different time periods – the Renaissance, Victorian England, and today.  Each, in their own way, utilized reason and evidence to understand the world and to value human dignity. Each urged us to take responsibility for our own actions.

Cornelius Agrippa

The life of Cornelius Agrippa,1486-1535, took place during the Renaissance, as Europe was experiencing a rebirth following the Middle Ages. He was born in Cologne, Germany but spent time in numerous European countries. He studied both medicine and law with no evidence of him receiving a degree in either.

Agrippa was known for his deep learning and advocacy of classical and ancient wisdom, often clashing with traditional religious leaders. While still living in Cologne, he took on the defense of a women accused of witchcraft and was soon forced by the Inquisition to leave his native city.

During his fifty years, Agrippa’s diverse career included being a secret agent, soldier, physician, orator, and law professor. On one occasion he became the personal physician to the Queen Mother at the court of King Francis I. After the queen dismissed him, he was soon banned for practicing medicine without a license. Later, he became historian to the Holy Roman Emperor, Charles V.

Agrippa’s opinions were controversial, and he was often criticized by those in power. By seeking truth in classical sources outlawed by the church, he opened the gate for later philosophical thinking and scientific discovery.

Robert Louis Stevenson

The author, Robert Louis Stevenson is given credit for providing humanist influence in Victorian England. In his writing, Stevenson emphasized human experience and often critiqued Victorian hypocrisy. He rebelled against strict religious dogma and valued human ethics.

Stevenson’s work, The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, explored human duality. His literary and personal life reflected ideas of openness, tolerance, and profound care for others. One biographer/critic, Jeremy Treglown observed, “He always wanted to escape from the certitudes and complacencies, religious, moral, and social of his Edinburgh upbringing.”

It is not well known that during his life, Stevenson was considered one of the most accomplished essayists of his generation. In one essay that reminded me of the early life of Pittsburgh playwright, August Wilson, Stevenson wrote, “If a lad does not learn in the streets, it is because he has no faculty of learning.”

In another essay, Stevenson explains his progressive views on women, at odds with strict Victorian culture that placed them on a pedestal. “When you marry, you take into your life a creature of equal frailties, whose human heart beats no more tunefully than yours.” In other essays he admired strong women and attacked male superiority.

At the end of his life, Stevenson lived on the Polynesian island of Samoa. This gave him the opportunity to follow his earlier declaration that his mission as a writer was “to protect the oppressed and to defend the truth.” In his non-fiction book, A Footnote to History, Stevenson castigated the colonial powers for exploiting local native people and destroying their way of life.

Robert Dworkin

As an attorney, Robert Dworkin was my favorite philosopher of law. He placed human dignity at the center of his moral system. Dworkin was skilled in breaking down complex issues like race, abortion, euthanasia, and equality.

Dworkin studied law and philosophy at Harvard University and law at Oxford. His distinguished career was unfortunately ended by his death from leukemia in 2013. A dedicated progressive, Dworkin had the experience of teaching a joint course at Yale with conservative legal scholar, Robert Bork.

Dworkin believed that law should be viewed not as a series of isolated statutes and cases, but as a "single coherent scheme of principle." His basic moral principle was that respect for human dignity entails two requirements: 1) “self-respect.” taking the objective importance of your own life seriously, and 2) “authenticity,” accepting a personal responsibility for identifying what counts as success in your own life.

My favorite book by Dworkin is the ambitious Justice for Hedgehogs. It argues for a unified theory of value; connecting truth, morality, and justice.

Unfortunately, in Trump’s world, humanists are held in low regard and worse, often assailed. This has been the plight of humanists throughout history. Authoritarian and religious leaders have repeatedly sought to limit their influence. The humanist goals of reason, civic virtue, and truth seeking are the bane of despots. My Humanist Hall of Fame nominees, and others, give us examples to follow when the world turns dark.

 

THE LOOMING DEBT CRISIS

 

The Trump administration provides new issues daily for elected officials, policy experts, journalists, and economists to argue about. Under this constant barrage, the ever-present elephant in the room is the problem that gets ignored. Such is America’s case regarding the looming worldwide debt crisis.

Most wealthy nations are living beyond their means. Western Europe recognizes it has a problem, but is short on solutions. France is in a perpetual political crisis as it rotates through Prime Ministers unable to agree on increasing the retirement age to stop the bleeding. In Britain, the new Labor government has been forced to abandon promised help for the needy and instead must consider tax increases to plug the growing hole in the budget.

Italy faces a massive public debt (around €3 trillion or 150%+ of GDP) one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the EU, making debt servicing costly, thus hindering productivity. The huge debts owed by the Greek government to the rest of the euro area cast a shadow over its financial future. Painful budget cuts, tax increases, high unemployment, and shrinking living standards/social services have offered little relief.    

In Japan, the debt crisis stems from decades of government borrowing to offset slow growth after its 1990s asset bubble burst. This led to a massive debt-to-GDP ratio (over 250%) and persistent deflation, forcing the Bank of Japan to keep rates low.

For the past several decades, one of the marvels of the world economy has been the ability of the United Staes to consistently borrow its way out of financial trouble. Under both Democrat and Republican administrations, the federal government has employed debt to fight wars, control global recessions (caused by the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis and the pandemic), and to increase domestic spending.

Net debt in America is now nearing 100% (on track to exceed 150%) of national income. The president and Congress continue to disregard this troubling development. Even creditors at home and abroad who should be alarmed are strangely quiet.

In the fall issue of Foreign Affairs, Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard University makes the case for a looming debt crisis.  His concerns and reasoning are explained in a comprehensive essay, America’s Coming Crash: Will Washington’s Debt Addiction Spark the Next Global Crisis?

Rogoff believes that America’s free lunch of continuous fresh borrowing is coming to an end. The past few years have cast doubt on the assumption that bond market investors will remain happy to digest “another large pile of dollar debt.” Long-term interest rates have risen. This means that the gross debt in our nation is now nearly $37 trillion, almost as large as all the other wealthy economies combined.

Rogoff concludes: “As of May 2025, all the major credit-rating agencies had downgraded U.S. debt, and there is a growing perception among banks and foreign governments that hold trillions of dollars in U.S. debt, that the country’s fiscal policy may be going off the rails. The increasing unlikelihood that the ultralow borrowing rates of the 2010s will come back anytime soon has made the situation all the more dangerous.”

Rogoff points out that despite Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve and his efforts to lower interest rates, his plans are constrained by the need to keep inflation in check. Moreover, the ‘Big Beautiful Bill,” by keeping taxes low for the wealthy, has increased the deficit.

No reasonable person can argue that the Trump administration alone is the cause of the looming debt crisis. The problem started decades ago. But Trump’s policies have been an accelerant. In his second term, he has embraced large deficits – an unsustainable six to seven percent of GNP for the rest of the decade.

Rogoff fears that to escape a debt crisis without “crushing austerity measures,” the administration might employ options normally associated with emerging markets. He points out that the so-called Mar-a Lago Accord, a strategy put forward by Stephen Miran, now head of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors, suggested that the U.S. could “selectively default on its payments to the foreign central banks and treasuries that hold trillions of U.S. dollars.”

An easier third world option would be simply to print more dollars, and let inflation achieve a partial default by making creditor holdings less valuable. In normal times, the independence of the Federal Reserve would prevent this result to avoid inflation. These are not normal times.  If the nation finds itself in a financial crisis precipitated by the budget deficit, who knows what Trump will do?

Rogoff believes that Trump’s policies and those of previous administrations are “a huge wager on long odds.” Dependence on miraculous levels of growth and perpetual low interest rates cannot be guaranteed to support an out-of-control deficit. If the looming debt crisis explodes, forced austerity, high inflation, financial depression, and partial default would all be worse than a government-initiated response.

A Special Report in the October 18^th edition of the Economist, The Coming Debt Emergency offers some thoughts on how to avoid increasing public debt. Sweden adopted fiscal rules designed to ensure a budget surplus. It capped spending and eliminated open-ended appropriations. New Zealand, Switzerland, and even much larger Germany have enacted caps on deficits.

Our domestic solution would be a non-partisan agreement on a progressive plan of belt tightening and higher taxes to return debt to a manageable level. Every year’s delay makes it harder to achieve results.