THE CENTER DID NOT HOLD

The Irish poet W.B. Yeats wrote in his famous poem “The Second Coming”: Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold.  Yeats was referring to the state of civilization in the aftermath of WWI. His words are indeed appropriate for the shattered condition of American politics in 2017.

In a two party political system, like our constitutional republic, being elected and governing from the center has always been the key to success.  We differ from a parliamentary democracy where numerous political parties, some with fringe views, are permitted to flourish and compete for power by forming coalitions to form a government. Our constitutional republic works best when only two conflicting ideologies compete for the center to win elections.  Third parties have never met with much success in America.

There are reasons why the importance of the center in modern American politics often gets lost in the fog.  First, political actors on the left (progressives) and on the right (tea party conservatives) have become unrelenting forces that control the national primary process.  This compels otherwise moderate candidates to move from the center in order to win the nomination of their party.  

Second, the Nixon era label “the silent majority” has always applied to the political center.  Even in our high octane 24/7 social media environment, almost all of the political chatter comes from individuals, print media and websites that are devoted to the two extremes of American politics and not the center.

Leading up to the 2016 presidential election, both democrats and republicans took the center for granted.  Moderate democrats were sure that their political tent was overflowing with young and minority voters, all of whom would enthusiastically vote to extend the Obama vision of America.  More progressive democrats were sure that the changing national views on social equality would automatically translate into the center favoring programs that adopted economic equality. Republicans of all stripes were sure that the center was fed up with stagnation in Washington and ready to give them control of Congress and the White House, with a candidate of their choosing.

All of the pundits, pollsters and political sages were wrong.  The center did not hold. It rearranged itself in ways that political experts could not predict or image.  As a result, Democrats were banished to the political wastelands.  Traditional Republicans are now forced to do business with a man and his movement that few understand or respect.

I believe the fact that the center did not hold decided the 2016 election and not Russians, the FBI or brilliant nationalist advisors working for Trump.  Figuring out the political views of moderate democrats in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan last November and the direction the center is now heading will determine which candidates succeed in upcoming elections. The analysis that follows is directed at progressive democrats, like myself, who want to see the democratic party get back in the game after a devastating defeat. The stakes are enormous because if left unchecked, this political, social and economic fiasco will undo much of the progress made during the Obama presidency.

First, it is a mistake to get caught up in the Trump circus and current investigations while gloating with other liberals about the newest revelation.  Such conduct feeds into the partisan divide and helps Trump hold his supporters together in a siege mentality.  The Trump Presidency is an outlier and will self-destruct on its own.  Time would be better spent grooming candidates and developing policy acceptable to the evolving center for 2018 and 2020.

Second, it cannot be assumed that young and minority voters will flock to the polls to vote for democrats.  We need to earn these votes by listening to their concerns and adopting specific policies to address them.  The assumption that millennials would tip the scales when they began voting was wrong.  Those that live and work in rural areas vote like their parents and do not share the views of their urban cousins. Black voters that went to any length to vote for Obama were not motivated to vote for Hillary. Latino voters, notwithstanding the immigration debate, are conservative on many issues.

Third, upcoming elections must be about a Democratic vision for America, not about how deplorable the President or his followers have been.  Millions of Americans voted for a man with no moral compass, not because of who he was or the horrible things he did, but because of the promises he made. It is true that some of the promises were based on racist and nativist themes.  These must be attacked with vigor. But many of the economic promises are ones that responsible democrats can actually work to deliver.  The center will hold for sound economic policy.

Fourth, there is a misplaced belief among progressives that the failures of Trump and the Republican Congress will usher in the promised land of social democracy.  For example, many hope that the death knell of the Republican health care plan will be the birth of a single payer health system. Unfortunately, American politics are not the all or nothing French Revolution and the evolving center is not prepared for an overnight sea change of that magnitude.  The history of enduring social reforms is one of Congress improving them over the years. The ACA was not perfect.  The center will hold to make it better, over time.

Lastly, we lost the election.  The road to regaining control of Congress and the White House will be complex, arduous and full of setbacks.  At best, progressive policies will be implemented incrementally as the center evolves.  This is the way democracy functions in America.  Eventually a new center will take hold and we must let it evolve and be part of the process.

Ironically, progressives living in Washington County are in the ideal place and time to begin the work.  Look around. We are in the middle of the center that did not hold.  Our friends and neighbors are the registered democrats that voted for Trump.  We must listen to their concerns and identify candidates and develop policies they can support.

Washington County does not have the mindset of the Northeast, or even Pittsburgh.  For example, our two Democratic Commissioners are more conservative on many issues then I would like, but truth be told, they reflect our community and unlike Washington D.C. or Harrisburg are able to govern with rational leadership rather than partisan rancor.  There is no better environment for progressives to analyze the center and help shape its future.

For others like me, who care about diversity, income equality, educational equality and projects designed to help our most vulnerable citizens, Washington County is a good place to start.  If we can get the center to hold here, with liberal leaning programs accepted by a majority of citizens, it can happen anywhere.  It is time to stop gloating over Trump failures and to get busy.