In the age of Trump not many would argue against the
partisan political debates that divide the country continuing to be the
greatest societal conflict facing the American polity for the next several
decades. I am going to take a contrarian
position and argue that conservative/liberal partisan politics will soon take a
back seat to a new conflict based on age: the interests of Baby Boomers versus
the interests of Millennials. As summarized by the economist Robert Samuelson:
“The essential budget question going forward is how much we allow federal
spending on the elderly to crowd out other national priorities.”
The Baby Boomer generation peaked at 78.8 million in 1999 and has for decades remained the largest
living adult generation. There were an estimated 74.1 million Boomers in 2016. By midcentury, the
Boomer population is projected to dwindle to 16.6 million. Millennials, whom we define as ages 22 to 37 in 2018,
numbered 71 million in 2016 and will soon surpass boomers as our largest
population group. This will accelerate
as the older group passes on and younger talented workers are imported from
abroad to fill positions in our full employment economy. Worldwide, Millennials
will soon account for half of all employees (and voters).
In order to formulate my thinking
on the coming economic conflict based on age, I found it helpful to think back
to the period when Baby Boomers were entering adulthood in the late 60s and
70s. Friends were transitioning from
pugnacious students or stints in Vietnam to well-paying union positions and
into medical, law and business school.
We continued to seek emotional and physical distance from our parents
and had no desire to live with them or even reside in the same town. Our laissez-faire parents felt the same way.
(until the grandchildren started arriving)
Student loans were manageable 3%
debts. Employer backed Defined Benefit
Pensions as opposed to less generous 401Ks were common. We married in our 20s and could afford
mortgages and vehicles. As we
transitioned from soldiers and students to union representatives and
stockbrokers, we wanted material rewards to showcase our success. We were
selfish, loud and built our futures based on our sense of economic entitlement. Politically, we compelled elected officials
to favor our economic whims at the expenses of future generations. After all, we knew how to run a country and
how to save the world.
When I place this snapshot next to today’s millennials, I
get a much different view. The Millennials I know well are not as eager to
break away and explore the world. Their
steps away from the familial cocoon, where parents have often placed them on a sheltered
pedestal, are measured and careful. While some elders may view Millennials as
disinterested, in fact they are fundamentally pragmatic. Riding a bike to work
each day and taking Uber to the grocery store seems more sensible than owning a
car.
Those Millennials that are beginning to take a stand
politically do not demonstrate the rebellious enthusiasm of the 60s and
70s. Decisions to delay marriage, own a
home and purchase a vehicle have become lifestyle choices as much as financial
decisions. Balance between work and recreation is essential. The internet and
social media provide a network that seamlessly governs their employment,
communications, recreation and access to news and advertising.
But at some point Millennials will realize that there is
strength in numbers and that they have real political clout outside of their
insular world. One day millions of young voters will look up from their phone
screens and collectively ask, “where is our piece of the economic pie?” Their minimalist lifestyle choices will
become more material and biological alarm clocks will tell women it is time to
start families and purchase homes. They
will realize that the industrial age is dying and that the information age is
being built on their shoulders. A full
blown economic transformation will be underway.
This process started with the primary campaign of Bernie
Sanders in 2016. His campaign promises
of universal health care and free college education were enough to stir the
Millennial bear. To illustrate this
point, in Pennsylvania (one of the older population States in the country) the
most recent voter registration totals disclose more registered voters under the
age of 34 than over the age of 65 for the first time in the history of the
Commonwealth. Now that the seed has been
planted, demands for economic parity will continue to be made and candidates
running for office will be compelled to listen.
These inevitable changes will come at the expense of Social Security
and Medicare payments which must be pared back to accommodate the demands of
Millennials. What has been true for Baby Boomers over the past 50 years, will
become true for Millennials. No serious
political party, no matter what the ideological orientation, will be able to
ignore their economic demands.
Millennials have not yet given their new political power the
full attention it deserves. When they do, Boomers and the AARP will have less
leverage to determine policy. This is
the way a democratic republic based on pluralism works, as one large
demographic interest group is replaced by another.
As matters have turned out, Baby Boomers did not know how to
run the country or how to save the world.
Millennials deserve their time at the wheel and could not possibly do
any worse.
