The impeachment hearings that took place over two weeks
presented a complex scenario for the American public to follow. The post-cold
war relationship between Russia, Ukraine and the United States, that sets the
background for the hearings, is even more complicated and was little discussed
by the congressional committee or the media.
Without this historical context, the average listener would have no
reason to understand the importance of Ukraine to American foreign policy. (for
background see: Foreign Affairs, 11/22/19, The Shoals of Ukraine,
Where American Illusions and Great-Power Politics Collide, Serhii Plokhy and M.
E. Sarotte)
The hearings, designed to gather facts for articles of
impeachment, were evidence of something more ominous than a one-time quid pro
quo between the Trump administration and Ukraine. The important revelation for
me was understanding the chaos that results when the federal government is led
by a White House that is uninterested in following accepted procedures and
uninformed on its own foreign policy. My fear is that what has been exposed is
only one small example of the governance crises yet to come as a direct result
of Trump’s hubris and ignorance.
Of the witnesses that testified, all but one, EU Ambassador
Gordon Sondland, were long standing, highly qualified career diplomats and
policy experts. The experts understood
the background on Ukraine and the disinterested and uninformed policies that
brought us to a constitutional crisis.
Mr. Sondland, on the other hand, was a political appointee who paid one
million dollars to the Trump inauguration to gain his position. Like the President, Mr. Sondland’s background
was in the hotel business. He had no
training or experience in diplomacy.
The loosest canon in this fiasco is Rudy Giuliani, the
President’s personal lawyer. Mr.
Giuliani was not a diplomat and in recent years made millions giving speeches
and selling himself as a security consultant to authoritarian governments.
None of the well trained policy experts and diplomats had
any contact with the President. They all had valuable information to share
concerning Ukraine’s immediate need for military assistance. Their reasoned advice to superiors on the
Ukraine political situation and timely warnings to department lawyers were subject
to formal protocol and went unheeded.
Only the players with no historical knowledge or diplomatic
experience, Giuliani and Sondland, had direct access to the President. Both either encouraged or were on board with
what Trump wanted to accomplish.
It is impossible to know whether the ill-advised scheme
leading to impeachment would have occurred if White House advisers interested
and informed about Ukraine were in place.
Reports of the White House in 2017-2018 indicated that the Chief of
Staff, White House Counsel, National Security Adviser and key Cabinet heads,
all had some positive influence over the President. These officials were able to discourage
outrageous or illegal behavior on the part of the President on numerous
occasions.
Unfortunately, all of the “adults in the room” are long gone
and the President has only his own political instincts, his limited knowledge
of the federal bureaucracy, his inexplicable pro Russian, anti European view of
foreign policy and the commentators on Fox News to guide him. My conjecture is
that as uninterested and uninformed political appointees continue to advise the
President, the worst is yet to come and that Ukraine and impeachment will be
the least of our concerns.
First, consider that the President’s son-in- law, Jerad
Kushner, has been given an exclusive profile over foreign policy in the Middle
East. Mr. Kuschner is yet another Trump
insider with knowledge of the hotel business and with no diplomacy experience.
Both the FBI and CIA recommended that Kuschner not receive top level security
clearances, a decision overruled by the President.
No one seems to know what Jared is up to but his progress on
the President’s “ultimate deal” between Israel and Palestine has gone nowhere.
In September, the only seasoned diplomat reporting to Jared, Jason Greenblatt,
left the White House and was replaced by Avi Berkowitz, a young recent graduate
who previously was Mr. Kuschner’s errand boy.
(Politico, 9/6/19: Can Jared’s millennial “mini me” bring peace to the
Middle East?)
Second, is the State Department, where key professionals
either resigned or were terminated by the previous Secretary of State and
ignored by the present placeholder, Mike Pompeo. Mr. Pompeo is reportedly going to run for the
Senate and spends as much time in Kansas as Washington. His goal is to agree with and not upset the
President.
Third, there is no coherent policy toward either North Korea
or Iran, other than Trump’s wish for bilateral meetings. Both countries have rejected this outreach
and continue to solidify their nuclear capabilities.
Fourth, no one knows what other promises, commitments or
self serving deals may have been made by the President to other heads of state.
Fifth, the chaos in governance that was evident during the
impeachment hearings did not go unnoticed by Russia, China and other foreign
governments. Whether Trump would encourage a foreign military engagement to
take off the impeachment heat is unknown. What is known is that uninformed
foreign policy decisions made for personal or political reasons are not in the
country’s best interests.
I would propose that Republican Senators exercise the art of
the deal with the President. In return
for supporting him in the upcoming impeachment trial, insist on the
following: 1) that a bipartisan foreign
policy expert sit in on all conversations with foreign leaders and review
transcripts of prior conversations, with authority to report problems to
Congress; 2) that the White House move quickly to fill all staff positions in
the foreign policy apparatus with qualified candidates; and that 3) the
President remove his son- in- law from responsibility for the Middle East and
replace him with a seasoned expert.
Such moves would exercise responsible oversight and could
save America from another constitutional crisis, or much worse.
