UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD TAKES TIME & PATIENCE

 

In this age of misinformation and sound bites, one lesson should be entrenched by now. It takes hard work to be a well-informed citizen, capable of interacting with other well-informed citizens, who wish to discuss the important issues of the day. Communications from elected leaders and political parties must be fact-checked. Disclosures from individuals with impeccable professional standing and high journalistic standards are not sacrosanct. Their analysis and conclusions do not give us the green light to accept factual statements as true. It is up to each of us, who wish to make sense of the world, to avoid the emotional bliss associated with confirmation bias when someone tells us our beliefs were correct.  

Many of the issues screaming from the headlines have profound effects on our financial and emotional well-being. We hope there are simple answers to these problems so that we can comfortably agree with those we admire and respect. Unfortunately, many of the important issues we confront are complex and not explained by superficial descriptions of right and wrong.

Sometimes, the information sources we rely on are reliable. At other times, the sources have taken liberties with the facts to support a predetermined result and to keep us in blissful ignorance. If the reader of this commentary cares more about results and supporting a particular agenda than  understanding issues, please turn to the sports page or comics and enjoy.

To make my point I have chosen two topics that are on the minds of many Americans: inflation and the Ukrainian conflict. I have no political agenda or position to support.  My sole purpose is to ask readers to consider diving deeper into the vast amount of information available to them before drawing conclusions.

Inflation. The onset of the highest inflation rate in 40 years is too complex to place blame on any single factor. The combined development of pandemic-induced, supply-chain issues and strong consumer demand was unanticipated by economists of all political persuasions. Moreover, pandemic induced worker shortages has led to higher wages.

The Federal Reserve is powerless against the lack of supply of everything from computer chips to housing. Over time, chip production will increase as the pandemic winds down, and the housing market will cool off as interest rates return to a more normal level. American oil/gas producers have been reluctant to increase production, even with higher prices. Many drilling companies promised their investors that profits and dividends would take precedence over plowing earnings back into more infrastructure.

Increasing interest rates in order to get a lid on prices will lower inflation. However, if the Fed moves to hike interest rates and tighten credit too aggressively, it risks tanking the economy into a recession with negative effects on the stock market.

Ukraine. The media has painted the Ukrainian conflict as a classic battle of good vs. evil and largely ignored the geopolitical background leading up to the war. Since the Soviet Union dissolved, America has set out to enlarge the NATO military alliance to include nearly every nation in Central and Eastern Europe that had been a vassal of the Kremlin for the previous half-century. To many Russian scholars, Putin’s initial attack came as little surprise. In a sense, it was a Russian backlash waiting to happen. Going back to 1995, George Kennan, the dean of Russia experts and the architect of America’s cold war containment policy castigated NATO enlargement as “the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.”

The war has compelled Washington to make new concessions to autocratic regimes in Saudi Arabia and Iran to compel them to pump more oil. Doing so will provide a financial windfall to both countries. Moreover, both countries will have more resources to fund their deadly proxy war in Yemen where the death toll has reached 400,000 non-combatants (10,000 children).

Ukraine is a major world exporter of wheat and other grains to the world. The war has shut down exports of existing grain production and may make it difficult to plant the spring crop. The United Nations has warned that the Russian invasion could trigger global famine, as Moscow’s Black Sea blockade delays important grain exports. The conflict has stoked fears of a deepening hunger crisis in countries already facing famine conditions.

Ukraine’s combined wheat exports are crucial to a number of countries, including Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh and Iran, who get 60% of their grain imports from the region. Without food security, many third world countries will be subject to military conflict.  On another front, important to the West, Russia and Ukraine both supply raw materials critical to chip production, which is undergoing a worldwide supply shortage (see inflation above).

On the positive side, Western Europe could increase its commitment to renewable energy to lessen dependence on Russian oil and gas. This would be a boon for the climate, not unlike the pandemic crisis when energy usage shrank by half.

When it comes to complicated economic and geopolitical issues, very little can be explained in a brief commentary. For individuals seeking to broaden their understanding the RealClear array of news, opinion and innovative research (see realclearpolicy.com and related sites) covers all angles and is a reasonable place to start. The more we understand, the less likely we are to claim the only “right” answer in our social interactions.

 

 

 

A DISPATCH FROM THE RECENT COMMISSIONER’S MEETING

 

I recently attended my first public meeting of the Washington County Commissioners. If reporters could risk their lives imbedded in Ukraine, the least I could do was take the time to show my support for our commissioners and election office employees. All have been under constant verbal attack (and recent threats of physical violence) as they attempt to move on from the 2020 election and prepare for this May’s local primary vote. The public meeting was an eye-opening exemplar of democracy in action, and in some cases, democracy run off the tracks.

The Pennsylvania Sunshine Act (also known as the Open Meetings Law) requires the commissioners to deliberate and take official actions on county business in an open and public meeting.  It requires that meetings have prior notice and that the public can attend, participate and comment before the county takes the official actions.  Specifically, Washington County residents and taxpayers have the right to comment on issues “that are or may be before the board.”

The commissioners are permitted to establish rules to oversee public comment to avoid a chaotic French Revolution style “free-for-all” from disgruntled residents. In Washington County a sign-up sheet with appropriate identification is required and a three-minute limit on each speaker’s presentation has been established. In the interest of time and to avoid full-blown debate without proper deliberation, the commissioners do not respond to residents during the comment period. They do follow up with appropriate action when a valid issue is disclosed during public comment.

 

In normal times, the above process well served Washington County and other governing bodies throughout the Commonwealth.  Unfortunately, these are not normal times.  Since the “stop-the-steal” crusade erupted following Trump’s 2020 defeat, a small but vocal cadre of residents have made it their mission to challenge and decertify the election results in Washington County.

These individuals appeared to be well coordinated when making public comments.  Some attacked the county voting machines as untrustworthy.

Others attacked the manner in which votes were tabulated and demanded an expensive forensic audit. Still others focused on the discredited theories of “election expert” Douglas Frank, who personally addressed our county officials several weeks ago. Most remarks appeared to be a rehash of comments from previous meetings. Over the past year, Commissioners Diana Irey Vaughn and Larry Maggi have discovered there is no way to satisfy these unproven demands short of taking steps to illegally decertify the 2020 county election.  

 

A second occurrence took place during the public comment period that was  further removed from the intended purpose of permitting rational input from concerned citizens. Two Row Office officials, known for their hostility against the commissioners, signed up to speak as private citizens. Each used their allotted three minutes to level personal attacks that had little to do with the business before the board. Their comments were embarrassing, derogatory, disrespectful and defamatory. The only possible explanation for such an outrageous display would be to use these outbursts as fodder for their social media or as a political tool to remove those commissioners with whom they disagree. 

What transpired contradicts the purpose of open meeting public comments. These Row Office officials should be banned from participating at future commissioner meetings as private citizens. This would not be discriminatory because these members of county government are in a position to make their views known through press releases, news conferences and political advertising. Their objective in speaking is not to discuss an issue on the meeting agenda. It is to attack the leadership of the county in the hope of replacing them in the next election cycle.

The last speaker in support of the “stop the steal” movement had the only new information of the day to report to the commissioners.  At the end of her comments she smiled and informed them she had a message from “election expert” Douglas Frank who has begun his own vicious attack against the commissioners. The commissioners were warned to be very concerned that Mr. Frank had acquired “all of their digital information including sign-ins and passwords.” This was a thinly veiled threat, which, in my humble legal opinion, may be criminal.

I came away from the meeting conflicted over whether the better response would be to ignore the misinformed repetitious barrage or to rebut it head-on with public statements supporting Washington County’s election process and discrediting the maverick Row Office speakers. In favor of the first approach, if few county citizens are paying attention to this nonsense, it may be prudent not to give it further attention. The second approach has the advantage of publically speaking the truth to such patently false positions and outrageous conduct. Whatever the resolution of this charade, under no circumstances should either the voter fraud adherents or the outlaw public officials who seek to discredit the commissioners receive any further concessions. Enough is enough.

When the public comment period was completed, almost all of the observers cleared the boardroom and took their talking points out to the foyer. With few spectators looking on, the meeting room returned to the formal civility it deserves. The commissioners could finally get down to the important county agenda items they were elected to address and to resolve.

 

 

 

THE UNDERDOGS THAT KEEP FREEDOM ALIVE

 

“The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride to safety.” Volodymyr  Zelensky

Last weekend, we took a break from Netflix and watched the 1960 John Wayne version of The Alamo. It just happened to be the anniversary of this important historical event (February- March 1836).

The over three hour production tells the well-known story of a small band of Tennessee volunteers joining forces with local Texans to take on a large Mexican Army before being killed in action. The fact that two larger-than- life American heroes, Davy Crockett and James Bowie, fought and died in the conflict have added to the allure. However, we most remember the Alamo for the actions of the brave few to keep the ideal of Texas independence alive in the face of overwhelming odds.

History is replete with similar examples of the underdog taking on a superior adversary to preserve a way of life free from oppression. The Old Testament gives us David vs. Goliath where David accepts the Philistine challenge of single combat. Taking only his staff, sling and five smooth stones from a brook, David defeats the giant, Goliath. In modern usage, the phrase "David and Goliath" has taken on a universal meaning, denoting an underdog situation, a contest where a smaller, weaker opponent faces a much bigger, stronger adversary.

Jewish history also gives us the battle of Masada in 73 CE. According to the historian Josephus, the siege of this desert rock plateau by Roman troops ended the First Jewish Roman War with the mass suicide of 960 Jewish rebels who refused to surrender. Today, in Israel, many Jewish soldiers who complete their basic training are sworn-in on top of Masada.

In the classical Greek world, the Battle of Thermopylae between Spartan Greeks and invading Persians occurred in 480 BCE. Seven thousand Greeks were able to hold off two hundred thousand Persians at the narrow mountain path until betrayed by one of their own. The Spartan King, Leonidas, refused to retreat and with three hundred of his men died in battle. Today, Thermopylae is celebrated as an example of heroic persistence against seemingly impossible odds.

Many nations and cultures have similar legendary myths and verified historical events to help bolster national cohesion when threatened by superior outside forces. Our own American Revolution pitted thirteen small, unruly colonies against the world’s greatest eighteenth century empire. Few expected the one- sided conflict to end in a colonial victory.

Before the horrified eyes of the world, in real time on 24/7 live media, the nation of Ukraine now has its own unifying event. The unprovoked Russian attack on its homeland will serve as a fundamental building block of Ukrainian nationalism for years to come.

The position of Russian President Vladimir Putin that “there is no historical Ukrainian nation worthy of present-day sovereignty,” is only the latest insult in a long history of Russian bullying. In fact, Ukraine did not get created in any real sense by the old Soviet Union as claimed by Putin. It was already there, and it already had an extremely long and complex history.

For decades, the Soviet Union treated Ukrainians as second-class citizens, or worse. First, one of the greatest political atrocities in Europe of the 20th century took place in Ukraine when Stalin imposed a famine that caused the death of about 3.9 million people. Second, after Germany overran Ukraine in WWII, Soviet officials treated Ukrainians as Nazi collaborators, and many were persecuted. Third, the Chernobyl nuclear disaster occurred on Ukrainian soil, and the Soviet leadership did not disclose the spread of radioactive material to the Ukrainian people.

Without question, Russians and Ukrainians share many similar values and historical events. Citizens along the common border speak both languages and often hold dual passports. However, since the popular independence referendum in 1991, Ukraine has become a democratic state and sought closer ties with Western Europe, including membership in the EU. Putin now seeks to reverse this trend by placing a pro-Russian regime in power through naked aggression.

As I pen this commentary, Ukraine is holding its own against one of the largest and best-trained militaries in the world. If Russia persists, it is doubtful Ukraine can win a military victory.  However, in the end, the Ukrainian people will gain a sense of national identity, a commitment to independence and the support and gratitude of the world beyond measure.  Such is the power of an underdog who is willing to fight and to die to preserve its freedom.

The brave Ukrainian underdogs have performed a valuable wakeup call for all of us. When a million mothers and children are forced to leave their homes, and school teachers are fighting in the streets to disable tanks, the least we can do towards our fellow Americans is understand that others do not always think as we do. The disagreement does not mean they are bad people. The world is a complex, dangerous place, and we need each other. We need to develop a set of civic values that apply to every American.  We need to encourage and aid the underdogs among us, who seek their own freedom and the right to disagree.  We must be prepared to sacrifice a portion our own material lifestyle and financial well-being to make it happen. Otherwise, we are enabling the Putins of this world to take control.