BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

 

We all know that the idiom “be careful what you wish for” is used as a type of warning to people who are wishing for one thing, but might not realize all the negative consequences that could accompany obtaining that wish.  Sometimes it is instructive to look around and think about the ramifications of change on our lives and in the world at large.

For example, Washington and Greene counties are undergoing an economic revival of revolutionary proportions.  Unemployment is low, housing sales are improving and our backyards are literally the foundation of a new national industry.  My birthplace in Hunterdon County New Jersey went through a similar transformation in the 1970’s. A rural county of dairy farms with a homogeneous population of mostly white middle class residents exploded overnight with the completion of interstate 78 into New York City.  Within a few years Exxon, AT&T and Merck set up their headquarters in the cornfields and my favorite hunting spots sprouted wealthy subdivisions.  Now, I could not afford to go home and live in my hometown.

In Washington and Greene counties, along with growth and a larger tax base, we will begin to see more crime, more congestion and if the detractors of fracking are correct, more pollution.  The country hamlets and wide open spaces will never be the same.  Some of us will be questioning what we wished for.

Another “Be Careful” issue is taking shape in our Country at large that will have widespread implications.  Those among us wishing for immediate and significant debt reduction may not win the day immediately, but as the economy recovers there is no question that public retirement plans and the Social Security and Medicare Programs will undergo reduction. Because it is impossible to reduce present entitlements already in pay status, a line will be drawn in the sand.  We will in effect have two classes of retirees, those before and those after debt reduction.  The unlucky “afters” will be expected to work longer for less monetary and medical benefits.  I actually pity the unlucky republican congressman who must explain to his forty year old constituents why he was so eager to let this genie out of the bottle and get his wish answered.  Moreover, those of us with disabled family members or other economic challenges will be fighting to stuff the genie back in the bottle.

            On the international front the “Be Careful” issue is democracy in developing countries.  While the uprisings of the last two years have represented a significant affront to authoritarian rule in the Arab world, it has also reminded us how messy democracy is.  Being more democratic is not equating with being pro American.  It is somewhat ironic that those who insist the United States is a Christian democracy are horrified that an Arab country would want to become an Islamic democracy.  The Asian model for democracy, first economic and later political, looks nothing like our own experience.  In Latin America, the Spanish influence on democracy has continued to produce banana republics as opposed to stable institutions.

            I am not suggesting that any one of the three examples above is a bad result to wish for.  Perhaps the answer lies in moderation.  Like Midas turning everything he touched to gold, too much local development, debt reduction or international democracy may not be a wise result for any of us, at least in the short run.  Strong local governments which anticipate rather than react to change will help with the first issue. Thoughtful, measured plans to lower the deficit rather than sharp cuts will help with the second.  America offering moral support but otherwise staying out of the way as emerging democracies find their way will help with the third.