Monday, February 23, 2015

THE ARAB SPRING’S NAPOLEON CHALLENGE


         At the end of the 18th century a “European Spring” swept through France, on the heels of the American Revolution.  This movement, in the largest and most influential country on the Continent, promised the end of monarchs and the beginning of the rights of man.  The experiment was short lived and ended in horrible bloodshed as an unbalanced democracy without developed institutions ate its young.
          In the political vacuum that followed, a military genius small in stature with an unbounded ego, united the French people and influenced many others.  For those who had nothing and the fledgling middle class shopkeepers trying to grasp a purchase, his vision of a modern Roman imperialism was enticing.  Equality for all, governed by the rule of law appeared worth the price of a glorious death with a guaranteed pension for the family.  Many were Roman Catholics who feared the Protestant heretics from Britain and Sweden and the Orthodox Russians most of all.
         Napoleon Bonaparte kept Europe in flames for almost 20 years.  His ideology was shared by commoners in all corners and abhorred by the political elites. Napoleon’s propaganda spread throughout Europe in the form of pamphlets.  The information was never true but always inspirational and inflammatory.  At the beginning of important battles all the languages of Europe could be heard among the assembled soldiers fighting for Napoleon.  Geographical borders meant nothing as French victories carved out new principalities that were handed out like candy to Napoleon’s family and favorite generals.
         The Vatican States were conquered and the Pope fled. Napoleon was excommunicated from the Catholic faith as an extremist not worthy of the church’s support.  Britain stayed out of the fray until the end, paying other monarchs from Prussia, Russia, Saxony, and Sweden vast sums of money to fight the evil that sought to end the status quo.  Spies and assassins worked behind the scenes with impunity, blowing things up and killing political leaders.
         This short, incomplete summary of the Napoleonic wars has many parallels to the rise of ISIS in the Middle East.  While there are numerous differences as well, my point is not that history repeats itself.  I simply believe it is a dangerous mistake to treat ISIS as a terrorist organization like the al Qaeda of the past.  The point is also to remember that social and political change took time in the West and will take time in the Mid East.
         ISIS sees itself as a legitimate Islamic State.  It holds territory, runs municipal government, collects tolls, exports oil, passes laws and executes enemies.   It is more like the Taliban on steroids, a phenomena similar to Napoleon that seeks to conquer and rule a large geographical area in disarray.   ISIS is self contained, does not depend on outside funding and raises an army by promising glory, sexual partners and a purpose in life to dissatisfied young men.  Militarily, ISIS is run by former Iraqi military Sunnis, trained by the United States back in the day.
         In my view the United States should follow the British example from the Napoleonic Wars and stay removed from this singularly Islamic conflict as long as possible. Let those countries most affected by ISIS do the heavy lifting. This is a battle for the heart and soul of Islam with multiple agendas and forms of government in play.  Threats to our homeland are minimal.  If we take the ISIS bait and increase our military presence it will prolong the conflict and accomplish little.  With ISIS, patience and backseat containment are the best course.
         During the Napoleonic Wars, our country minded its own business, completed the Louisiana Purchase with the French and began the march West that made us into a great nation.  During the ISIS wars, we should concentrate foreign policy on Russia and the Far East, leaving the Mid East to sort out its own Napoleonic moment.
        

         

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