Election Day is close at hand. After November 8, the thousands of articles
written by political pundits, the hundreds of cable news shows and the millions
of dollars spent on political advertising will no longer matter. Either the White House will be claimed by our
first woman president or by a maverick firebrand who adopts Ronald Reagan as
his (sometimes) domestic model and refuses to disclose his plans in foreign
affairs.
Donald Trump has clearly struck a
chord with segments of white America who want this election to be about
them. They see Mr. Trump as the change
agent needed to give voice to their complaints and fears. This may be their last chance as an interest
group to control the national agenda and they intend to seize the moment.
Despite Trump’s missteps and un-presidential
demeanor, he has an even chance of becoming the next leader of the free
world. In these final days before
America votes, it is time to stop arguing about Trump’s statements and his
campaign management. Instead undecided
voters should stand back and consider what a Trump presidency might look like.
It is time to extrapolate Trump the candidate into
Trump the President. After all, four years of a Trump Presidency is the real
issue, not this mean spirited election which often feels like a war of
attrition.
FIRST 100 DAYS: It is safe
to assume that if Trump wins, Republicans will keep control of the Senate and
House. One would think that his first
acts would be to repeal large portions of Obama Care; cancel administrative
orders on immigration and regulatory matters; take some action to build a wall
on the Mexican border and introduce his tax cuts. If he nominates a Supreme Court candidate
unacceptable to Democrats, this could derail his other programs as the Supreme
Court battle consumes the Senate.
Before Republicans start cheering,
remember that Trump has zero governmental experience and has alienated the
Republican Congressional leadership,
some think beyond repair. His major election advisers, Governor Chris Christie,
former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Senator Jeff Sessions are outliers with little
influence on Capitol Hill. Believing he
would manage the first 100 days of his Presidency any better than he did the
Republican convention is not a good bet.
HONEYMOON PERIOD WITH CONGRESS: This is a different issue from the
first 100 days because Trump is not a typical Republican. Tea Party members of Congress will find
little to like because while Trump may talk like a gun toting bigot, his daughter will want her father to govern
more like a social liberal. President
Trump will not be a no spend tea party conservative. He will appear more like father and son Bush,
seeking to spend revenue to advance his projects like immigration enforcement,
law enforcement, child care proposals and making the military “big, powerful
and strong.” His plans to force other
nations to pay for projects, from the Mexican Wall, NATO commitments and
Chinese trade imbalances will prove difficult to implement. Traditional Republicans will soon wish Clinton
had won the election as Trump roils the financial markets.
PRESIDENTIAL STYLE: Donald Trump
is no Ronald Reagan who delegated to competent advisors. His style is more in the Jimmy Carter
micro-management camp. Unfortunately, Trump is also no Carter. He will waste
valuable political capital on counter punching the media, Democrats and fellow
Republicans who challenge his statements and policies. His inability to understand that words
matter, which has not affected his electability, will cause a series of crises,
particularly in foreign policy. Trump’s
Secretary of State and Press Secretary will have the most difficult jobs in
government, explaining his words and cleaning up after him.
DOMESTIC POLICY: Eight years
of steady profits and cheap money did not compel corporate America to invest in
new factories or infrastructure.
Instead, increased productivity through layoffs and automation and using
profits to buy back stock shares was the order of the day. There is nothing in Trump’s corporate tax
cuts that would compel a different result.
He does nothing to tie tax breaks to increased corporate spending on job
creation. If Trump is serious about
penalizing corporations who use cheap overseas labor and in attacking all trade
deals, he will run afoul of free market Republicans.
Regarding individual taxes, his reduction plan
will increase inequality by making the rich, richer and will increase the
deficit. There has been little evidence
of trickle down spending by the wealthy.
Instead well healed Americans have plowed savings into the stock market
which has had phenomenal growth since the recession.
Domestic unrest will increase based on Trump’s
off the cuff comments and his divisive election tactics. The coal mines will not magically reopen and
rust belt factories will not be unshuttered. Investment capital is not
interested in reviving the old economy when the new economy holds so much
profit potential . There are no Trump
plans to fix the student loan crisis or to recommit the nation to an equitable
education policy.
FOREIGN POLICY: This is the
wild card in a Trump Presidency. World
leaders with the exception of the most embedded despots fear the worst. Trump’s refusal to offer policies he would
follow forces friend and foe to recalculate the options, many of which are
destabilizing to the world order. If a
President Trump seeks to renegotiate alliances with Europe, South Asia and the
Far East, pro American world leaders will be forced to rethink their own security
concerns.
Trump may be correct that compelling
Germany, France, Japan, South Korea and India, among others, to increase militarization
might save a small percentage of the defense budget. But the cost to American
hegemony would be beyond repair.
Moreover, regimes in Russia, China, North Korea and Iran would expand
quickly to fill the vacuum.
As a direct result of Trump’s
election statements and positions, Islamic fundamentalists will have resurgence
both in the Mid East ISIS Caliphate and in recruiting terrorists in the
West. A vicious cycle of Islamic
repression and increased violence at home and abroad will result. Trump will find common cause with right wing
governments in Europe who will support his draconian immigration policies.
Trump has made clear that the
United States would no longer participate in global warming initiatives and
treaties. Trade wars will irrupt as existing
accommodations are no longer honored by the Trump administration.
When sober Republicans and
Independents enter the voting booth they must be careful what they wish
for. Voters should remember that the
Clinton 90s were a time of economic prosperity, balanced budgets and thoughtful
foreign policy. Hillary Clinton will
continue this tradition now that Obama has guided the country through the
recession.
Our economy in 2016 is the largest and most
stable in the world. American diplomacy and military strength are the envy of
the world. Changing horses when you are
in the lead and in the home stretch on numerous positive policies does not make
sense. A vote for Trump will be betting
on uncertainty and disruption, not change for the better.
