WHAT A TRUMP PRESIDENCY MIGHT LOOK LIKE

Election Day is close at hand.  After November 8, the thousands of articles written by political pundits, the hundreds of cable news shows and the millions of dollars spent on political advertising will no longer matter.  Either the White House will be claimed by our first woman president or by a maverick firebrand who adopts Ronald Reagan as his (sometimes) domestic model and refuses to disclose his plans in foreign affairs.

Donald Trump has clearly struck a chord with segments of white America who want this election to be about them.  They see Mr. Trump as the change agent needed to give voice to their complaints and fears.  This may be their last chance as an interest group to control the national agenda and they intend to seize the moment.

 Despite Trump’s missteps and un-presidential demeanor, he has an even chance of becoming the next leader of the free world.  In these final days before America votes, it is time to stop arguing about Trump’s statements and his campaign management.  Instead undecided voters should stand back and consider what a Trump presidency might look like. 

 It is time to extrapolate Trump the candidate into Trump the President. After all, four years of a Trump Presidency is the real issue, not this mean spirited election which often feels like a war of attrition.

FIRST 100 DAYS:  It is safe to assume that if Trump wins, Republicans will keep control of the Senate and House.  One would think that his first acts would be to repeal large portions of Obama Care; cancel administrative orders on immigration and regulatory matters; take some action to build a wall on the Mexican border and introduce his tax cuts.  If he nominates a Supreme Court candidate unacceptable to Democrats, this could derail his other programs as the Supreme Court battle consumes the Senate.

Before Republicans start cheering, remember that Trump has zero governmental experience and has alienated the Republican Congressional   leadership, some think beyond repair. His major election advisers, Governor Chris Christie, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Senator Jeff Sessions are outliers with little influence on Capitol Hill.  Believing he would manage the first 100 days of his Presidency any better than he did the Republican convention is not a good bet.

HONEYMOON PERIOD WITH CONGRESS: This is a different issue from the first 100 days because Trump is not a typical Republican.  Tea Party members of Congress will find little to like because while Trump may talk like a gun toting bigot, his daughter will want her father to govern more like a social liberal.  President Trump will not be a no spend tea party conservative.  He will appear more like father and son Bush, seeking to spend revenue to advance his projects like immigration enforcement, law enforcement, child care proposals and making the military “big, powerful and strong.”  His plans to force other nations to pay for projects, from the Mexican Wall, NATO commitments and Chinese trade imbalances will prove difficult to implement.   Traditional Republicans will soon wish Clinton had won the election as Trump roils the financial markets.

PRESIDENTIAL STYLE:  Donald Trump is no Ronald Reagan who delegated to competent advisors.  His style is more in the Jimmy Carter micro-management camp. Unfortunately, Trump is also no Carter. He will waste valuable political capital on counter punching the media, Democrats and fellow Republicans who challenge his statements and policies.  His inability to understand that words matter, which has not affected his electability, will cause a series of crises, particularly in foreign policy.  Trump’s Secretary of State and Press Secretary will have the most difficult jobs in government, explaining his words and cleaning up after him.

DOMESTIC POLICY:  Eight years of steady profits and cheap money did not compel corporate America to invest in new factories or infrastructure.  Instead, increased productivity through layoffs and automation and using profits to buy back stock shares was the order of the day.  There is nothing in Trump’s corporate tax cuts that would compel a different result.  He does nothing to tie tax breaks to increased corporate spending on job creation.  If Trump is serious about penalizing corporations who use cheap overseas labor and in attacking all trade deals, he will run afoul of free market Republicans.

 Regarding individual taxes, his reduction plan will increase inequality by making the rich, richer and will increase the deficit.  There has been little evidence of trickle down spending by the wealthy.  Instead well healed Americans have plowed savings into the stock market which has had phenomenal growth since the recession.

 Domestic unrest will increase based on Trump’s off the cuff comments and his divisive election tactics.  The coal mines will not magically reopen and rust belt factories will not be unshuttered. Investment capital is not interested in reviving the old economy when the new economy holds so much profit potential .  There are no Trump plans to fix the student loan crisis or to recommit the nation to an equitable education policy.

FOREIGN POLICY:  This is the wild card in a Trump Presidency.  World leaders with the exception of the most embedded despots fear the worst.  Trump’s refusal to offer policies he would follow forces friend and foe to recalculate the options, many of which are destabilizing to the world order.  If a President Trump seeks to renegotiate alliances with Europe, South Asia and the Far East, pro American world leaders will be forced to rethink their own security concerns. 

Trump may be correct that compelling Germany, France, Japan, South Korea and India, among others, to increase militarization might save a small percentage of the defense budget. But the cost to American hegemony would be beyond repair.  Moreover, regimes in Russia, China, North Korea and Iran would expand quickly to fill the vacuum.

As a direct result of Trump’s election statements and positions, Islamic fundamentalists will have resurgence both in the Mid East ISIS Caliphate and in recruiting terrorists in the West.  A vicious cycle of Islamic repression and increased violence at home and abroad will result.  Trump will find common cause with right wing governments in Europe who will support his draconian immigration policies.

Trump has made clear that the United States would no longer participate in global warming initiatives and treaties.  Trade wars will irrupt as existing accommodations are no longer honored by the Trump administration.

When sober Republicans and Independents enter the voting booth they must be careful what they wish for.   Voters should remember that the Clinton 90s were a time of economic prosperity, balanced budgets and thoughtful foreign policy.  Hillary Clinton will continue this tradition now that Obama has guided the country through the recession.

 Our economy in 2016 is the largest and most stable in the world. American diplomacy and military strength are the envy of the world.   Changing horses when you are in the lead and in the home stretch on numerous positive policies does not make sense.   A vote for Trump will be betting on uncertainty and disruption, not change for the better.