Over the past several decades my
live has changed. I now seem to know
much more about matters that directly affect me and have a willingness to act
on my knowledge. Twenty years ago I would have left such decisions to the
experts. Ten years ago I would have
searched the internet for information, but not have acted on self
knowledge. Today, I am often willing to
challenge the experts.
Before seeing my physician, I wade through articles
and blogs so that I can provide alternatives to her diagnosis and impress her
with my self-knowledge on medicine. I
attempt to argue with my brother, the CPA, on how to save money on my
taxes. Like-wise I am always attempting
to undermine plumbers, electricians, garden experts and those who make their
living in appliance repair, even though replacing a light bulb can be a task
for me. Without training or experience in many vocations, I seek to make my
opinion known and sometimes dare to follow it against expert advice.
The American political landscape
has seen a demise of expertise as well. When Trump campaigned on “draining the
swamp” to his populist base, in practice this meant terminating thousands of
government jobs of professionals with vast amounts of knowledge and experience.
Government workers in all areas, from
foreign affairs to climate change to financial regulation to running the
National Parks are now unemployed.
Trump has put an exclamation point
on his dislike for governmental expertise by refusing to fill 533 key executive
branch positions through April, 2017. As
Tom Nichols points out in his excellent new study: “The Death of Expertise”:
“Donald Trump ran a one man campaign against established knowledge.” As President he is now in a position to turn
the full force of the White House on reality itself.
Of course what has changed is not
me, but the availability of the internet. What has changed in our democracy is a
populist disdain for experts who tell us what to do. Who needs a climate expert in the EPA when
there are thousands of opinions a click away? The
great globalization of knowledge and communication has turned many of us, including
global political leaders, into experts in areas where we have no training or
experience.
I believe that as time goes by individuals and
governments will learn that an expert’s view is likely to be more informed than
my (their) own. Hopefully this will be
discovered before I flood the basement while attempting to fix a pipe or the
short handed, fact challenged, Trump administration wades into an international
crisis that could have been avoided.
As if the internet and populism
were not enough to encourage a mindset that “everyone’s opinion about anything
is about as good as anyone else’s”, there is a new attack on expertise on the
horizon that will provide a greater challenge.
I am referring to those mysterious concepts of “big data” and
“artificial intelligence.”
Big Data (BD) has been defined as:
“extremely large data sets that may be analyzed computationally to reveal
patterns, trends and associations, especially related to human behavior and
interactions. (It helps me to remember that “computing” is a synonym for big
data.)
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is
understood as: “the theory and development of computer systems able to perform
tasks that normally require human intelligence, including decision
making.”
As these two concepts are improved
and better understood, the implications for many of our professions are enormous. The practice of law, medicine, accounting,
teaching, journalism, psychological therapy and others will change and may
dramatically shift decision making from the trained experts to the individual
lay person.
Consider the practice of law. BD
makes it possible to review and analysis every judicial opinion in the history
of American Jurisprudence. AI will soon
have the capacity to draw conclusions on the outcome of legal matters based on how
all prior cases were decided, the judge who decided each opinion, counsel who
were involved in each case and a host of other factors. If this capability were for sale to the
public, how would it affect the need to hire an attorney? Would a divorcing couple who could spend a
thousand dollars to learn the most likely judicial result in dividing their
property and reordering their life find it necessary to retain legal advice?
BD is already having an effect on
psychological therapy. According to the
April issue of Atlantic Magazine (What Your Therapist Doesn’t Know) researchers
at Brigham Young University have developed psychotherapy metrics, drawing on
historical data from thousands of cases, to create algorithms predicting when
clients are at risk from mental deterioration.
By having clients take simple question surveys therapists incorporating
this tool into their practice claim great success in preventing drug relapse,
suicide and other mental health crises. As these algorithms become perfected,
what is to prevent them from being monetized and from family members employing
them to determine when a psychiatrist is necessary?
The teaching and journalism
professions present their own unique set of problems in light of advances in BD
and AI. Many young students already view teachers as the hired help and
themselves as consumers of a high priced product. This leads to them being catered to and not
instructed. Online Colleges have begun
to remove “hands on” teaching from the equation. The availability of BD and AI
problem solving may lead many students who are “confident but dumb” to strike
out on their own. Qualified or not, they will ask themselves: “If the founder
of Facebook could do it, why not me?”
Journalism faces the toughest task
of all in light of BA and IA advances. Social media has already turned many of
us into our own journalistic universes.
We have our own set of facts, opinions and conclusions. Before long we will be able to use BD to find
some algorithm that supports our facts and AI that supports our conclusions. The
further decline of print media and unbiased reporting seems assured.
The above discussion applies in
equal measure to all of our professions. The ability to self diagnosis medical
conditions and unravel complex tax questions will improve as BA and AI improve.
Will these technological advances
combined with the internet transform us into a society of polymaths, each of us
knowing enough to solve all daily problems without consulting someone with
training and experience? I doubt this will be the result. The professions I
have discussed above will not go the way of travel agents, realtors and
mortgage facilitators (all of which are downsized but still exist and provide
valuable niche services in their brick and mortar form). The human factor in analyzing data for
professional services will never be replaced.
Many of these professions will mutate into different formats and service
delivery models because of BD and AI.
In the end, both advances will become valuable
tools to make us healthier and more secure.
For example, In the case of journalism, I am convinced that old fashion “Sixty
Minute” door knocking investigations will never be replaced by social media, BD
or AI.
Those of us who insist on ignoring expertise
and seeking our own solutions, based on technological “cliff notes” and not
based on education or experience, will ultimately fail. Better to trust our health and our bank
accounts to those experts who learn the tools of the trade and put them to work
alongside the new advances in gathering and interpreting information.
In the case of the Trump
administration we must hope that expertise will regain its purchase in a
disorganized, reality challenged White House before something really bad
happens.
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