THE NEXT DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT

The passing of John McCain and the public discussion of his life and legacy has left me contemplating an issue that is 30 months away. What type of presidential candidate would I support for the Democratic party nomination in 2020?  If pressed, who would actually be my choice?

My view is that Trump has little chance of being impeached and will most certainly be the Republican candidate in 2020. With this in mind, there is a tendency in this age of Trump to nominate a Democrat who mirrors some of Trump’s characteristics. That is, to consider potential presidential candidates who are not career politicians, who are independently wealthy and who present out sized egos to confront the President on his own terms.

Prospective candidates who fall into this bucket now include entertainer Oprah Winfrey; Entrepreneur, TV personality and owner of the Dallas Mavericks Mark Cuban; and former President of Starbucks, Howard Schultz.  I would also place in this category former Mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg because I do not consider him a career politician and attorney Michael Avenatti, who is representing porn star Stormy Daniels.  Avenatti is by no means a billionaire but he meets the other criteria.  He is becoming a recognizable face on cable news and has expressed an interest in running for president, urging democrats to: “be a party that fights fire with fire.”

 In this group of potential candidates, Michael Bloomberg would be my clear choice.  But his candidacy is problematic.  First he is a registered Independent.  Second his track record as Mayor of New York, while admirable, is not the stuff to attract progressive democrats.  Third, he would find it next to impossible to survive primary challenges from those to his left.  To his credit and to ingratiate himself with democrats, Bloomberg has spent upwards of 80 million dollars to help Democrats retake the House in 2018. Still, his best chance of becoming the candidate might be to accept the nomination at a hopelessly deadlocked Democratic Convention.

 If a candidate other than Bloomberg were to emerge from this group, it would be a clear sign that the Trump presidency has opened a new era in presidential politics.  Celebrity name recognition and personal wealth would have replaced years of earned political acumen as the ticket to the White House.

The second bucket of potential candidates I will label as the young Turks.  In this group would fall a number of possibilities, many of whom have already expressed some interest in running.  There is New Orleans Mayor, Mitch Landrieu, a dark horse to be sure.  A bit more viable in ascending order are: Ohio Senator, Sherrod Brown; New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo; Connecticut Senator, Chris Murphy; Former U.S. Attorney General, Eric Holder Jr.; Former Virginia Governor, Terry McAuliffe; former Massachusetts Governor, Deval Patrick; New York Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand; New Jersey Senator, Corry Booker; California Senator, Kamala D. Harris; and the leader in this group, Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren.

My view among these candidates is that the first consideration should be to favor a qualified woman candidate.  Much of the pain of the Hillary Clinton lose would be repaired if the democratic party were to rebound four years later and be the first Party to place a woman in the White House.  This would advance Kristen Gillibrand, Kamala D. Harris and Elizabeth Warren to the top of my list.

Of these three, Elizabeth Warren has the better name recognition and national organization but is somewhat of a lightning rod.  Her sharp rhetoric and attack dog style might actually help Trump to frame the debate in the Twitter wars that would surely dominate the general election.  My feeling today is that either of the other two would make a better candidate, although neither is as dynamic as Warren.  Much would depend on how deep a following either of them could attract over the course of a congested and hard fought primary.

This brings us to the third and most likely bucket to produce the next democratic nominee for the presidency, the old political warriors.  There are two potential candidates, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.

 Sanders would seem to hold a strong grip on the leaderless Democratic Party because in 2016 he won at least 40 per cent of the primary vote in 37 States.  But in back of his dedicated, progressive young following his ceiling for support is low. I am not convinced that the country is ready for an Independent and avowed socialist to be elected president.  Moreover, his election would guarantee another four years of gridlock that would make even the Obama years seem tame.  In order for Democrats to govern, the next president must be part of a wide tent solution and not be the issue that invites partisan attacks.

Biden, on the other hand offers up a wider appeal in his liberal, but more fiscally conservative positions and voting record.  After a long Senate career and four years serving as Vice President, he is far and away the most well-traveled and knowledgeable statesman in the pack.  He knows how to campaign, he knows how to bargain with Congress and he knows how to govern.

Recent events have proven that there is no longer a McCain following of note in the Republican Party.  That is, elected Republicans are no longer inclined to follow their moral compasses or independent views rather than an uncompromising party line.  The truth is that but for McCain’s larger than life persona, he would not have won his last election to the Senate in Arizona. 

It does not follow that there is no longer a Biden following in the Democratic party.  The progressive left is more forgiving than the tea party Trumpian right. I believe the Democratic goal of recapturing the White House with the strongest unifying candidate will win out over pure ideological considerations.  If Biden were to win the nomination, Sander’s supporters would fall in line with greater urgency than they did for Hilary Clinton in 2016.

At the recent McCain memorial service in Arizona, Biden was among the last to provide a tribute. His remarks began with the words: “My name is Joe Biden.  I am a Democrat. I loved John McCain.” 

It is my view that this attitude of bipartisanship, along with Biden’s long record of service and blue collar roots is exactly what the country needs to begin the long road back from four years of turbulent tribal warfare.  Biden could enhance his candidacy by declaring he will only serve for one term in the White House (he will be 78 in 2020 as will Sanders) and by choosing early in the campaign, a progressive young Turk, to serve as his vice president. 

Joe Biden and one of the woman listed above would make an excellent ticket to ensure that Donald Trump is sent packing, back to his penthouses, golf resorts, indictments and lawsuits.