PREDICTING POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2019

One of the most hopeless exercises one may undertake is predicting the future. Not only do our built-in biases adversely effect our views, the future truth is often stranger than fiction and impossible to nail down with any accuracy. But still many make the attempt to see if someone will get it right. 

My 2019 prognostications will begin, in Washington County, where I predict that all three of our Commissioners will be reelected with little appreciable opposition. Democratic Commissioner Shober has now served for two terms and has gained the name recognition and reputation as a hard working public servant that should guarantee him a safer margin of victory than in the past. The reelections of Commissioners Maggi and Diana Irey Vaughan are not a prediction, but rather a sure thing.  I have previously pointed out in this column that unlike our federal and state governments, our three Commissioners actually govern and have exercised the level of prudent cooperation that produces results.

There will be an election for District Attorney in 2019 and I predict that the present DA, Republican Eugene A. Vittone Esq., will be reelected.  Although Democratic voter registrations still outnumber Republican registrations, there is a growing Republican preference among the electorate as evidenced by the local 2016 local mid-term results.  Moreover, Vittone has pleased many citizens with his compassionate stand on drug abuse at a time when almost everyone knows someone effected by the opioid crisis.

The two most interesting municipal elections in 2019 will be to replace retiring County Treasurer, Francis King, and to fill a new Judgeship recently approved by the Governor in our local Court of Common Pleas.  I predict that both elections will feature multiple candidates and hotly contested May primaries.

In the City of Washington and in the Washington County municipalities there will be important elections for which I am not knowledgeable enough to offer any predictions.  I will predict that the hottest issue in Allegheny County local government will make its way into Washington County in 2019.  I am referring to the discussions to merge fire departments, to merge police forces and to merge municipal governments in order to save money and avoid financial collapse. The City of Washington and many small municipalities and first responders will not survive without joining this conversation to think outside the box.

I predict that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania will follow the lead of New Jersey, Virginia and California in becoming more Democratic in 2019. In the mid-term elections, Republicans lost three congressional seats and lost both the Gubernatorial and Senate races by double digits.  The key is new voters, larger urban populations and Pennsylvania’s eastern suburbs where traditional Republicans are not comfortable with the new party brand as embodied by the President.

But, while Democrats now have the stronger statewide apparatus, they have not made significant inroads in electing State House and Senate representatives in the many rural Pennsylvania counties.  This will result in a continued legislative stalemate between the Governor and the State Legislature in 2019. 

Predicting results in national politics is the brass ring of 2019.  To be effective here, one must put emotion to the side to think through the most likely outcomes.  One must also recognize that in the wild wild west of Trump world, anything can happen.

First, I predict that President Trump will not be impeached.  The Republicans who control the Senate have too much invested in Trump’s base and their own political futures to walk out on the President now.  I also predict that Trump’s criminal exposure and that of his family and business interests will be more in focus after the Special Counsel completes his assignment.

Second, I predict that the Special Counsel will not indict the President while he is in office, but will indict members of his family.  I cannot see a Republican Justice Department changing their written policy and giving Mueller permission to indict Trump while he remains in office. I predict this result could be reversed if Trump attempts to pardon his own family or other co-conspirators while in office.

Third, I predict that Democrats who control the House of Representatives will not be spending as much political capital on removing the President as the cable networks are spending on advocating such a move.  The better bet is for the House to spend the next two years on developing policy that is beneficial to the electorate. 

When the Senate and President vote the Democratic initiatives down, there will be a voting record and platform for Democrats to regain control of the executive and legislative branches in 2020. Conversely, there is the possibility that the House, freed from the controlling freedom caucus, will actually pass legislation on spending, a farm bill, immigration reform and infrastructure that will reach common ground with the Republicans and become law.  (hedging my predictions here)

Third, I predict, for the same reason stated above, that House investigations into the Trump Presidency will be selective and involve only the most egregious transgressions.  It makes no sense to spend two years investigating Trump and to accomplish nothing else.  At this point the odds that such investigations will change the minds of Trump supporters is nil. But developing sound policy can bring traditional Republicans, purple Democrats and independents into the Democratic fold.

Fourth, not unlike the over-under bet in an NFL game, I predict that more Democrats will enter the Presidential race in 2019 than the 17 Republicans in 2015.

Fifth, I predict that all legal challenges to the ACA (Obamacare) will be defeated in 2019 and that the medical insurance plans offered in many states will begin to turn a profit for the first time.

Sometimes there is merit in throwing rationality to the wind, particularly when dealing with President Donald Trump. Accordingly, I predict that late in 2019, Donald Trump will announce he is not running for reelection.  Trump will turn the Presidency over to Vice President Pence, with assurances that he and all members of his family receive full federal pardons. Trump will claim he is a businessman not a politician, and like the virtuous Cincinnatus, that he has accomplished all of his announced goals. He will return to private live to save his business and to fight whatever state investigations and criminal charges are not cleared by the pardons.

In part II of this commentary, I will give my international, economic and social predictions for 2019.