THE ECONOMY WILL DETERMINE THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Remember all the excitement among Democrats when Conor Lamb won the special election for Congress in a Republican district. This euphoria was repeated when the Democratic Party took back the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections. Now it is happening again, as Trump levels racist attacks against progressive members of Congress.  Many political pundits are predicting that these events, along with other positive signs, are setting up a major Democratic victory for the presidency in the 2020 election.

As I survey the political landscape in the summer of 2019, I do not feel confident that Trump will be defeated.  In fact, given his formidable array of political advantages as the incumbent President, I believe the odds of Trump being reelected increase; the closer we get to Election Day.

The economy has always been a major factor in national elections, and Trump’s economy is the most robust in the world. Despite ongoing trade battles with China and saber rattling with Iran, the stock market hit all-time highs in mid-July. Unemployment, new jobs and GNP numbers continue to impress. Consumer spending is on fire with not even a hint of recession on the horizon.  The Federal Reserve has conceded to the President’s demand to reduce interest rates, guaranteeing that cheap borrowing and the economic expansion will keep humming along through 2020.

A great deal of research has been conducted over the years on the effect of economic conditions on presidential elections. Politico points out that Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling, shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the advantage of incumbency.

Most Americans have little interest in following Trump’s tweets.  They are not familiar with the myriad of articles, books and cable news shows that explain how Trump has degraded both domestic and foreign policy institutions.  They do not care who was appointed to the Trump cabinet or why certain officials resigned in disgrace.

These voters, who are not avowed members of one of our partisan political tribes, and who have no ideological skin in the game, will enter the voting booth in 2020 asking one primary question:  do I feel more economically secure and has my 401(k) account grown since the last election? In many cases, Trump gets an affirmative vote, no matter what secondary issues may concern the voter.

In addition to the economy, if matters stay the same, the President will also be able to claim a reduction in American troops in the Mid-East with no new entanglements.  This is critical to winning over a war weary nation and a position shared by most of the Democratic electorate.

 There will be those that challenge my assessment of Trump’s political future. They will point to his immoral standing, his imperial and narcissistic personality and his personal attacks against the rule of law, the media and against individuals who disagree with him. These were valid issues leading up to the 2016 election but will hold little water in 2020. At this point there is nothing new about Trump’s past, his political views or his treatment of individuals that would shock those who are familiar with his history.

Voters have come to expect the President to act out in unpredictable ways. Trump tends to say things that affront those who would never vote for him in the first place.  He is careful to both praise and reward his political base with frequent announcements. Moreover, voters in recent elections have appeared to be been more influenced by “what affects them” than “what offends them.”

What about the Mueller Report and the possibility of the Democratic House bringing impeachment proceedings?  The Report has not changed the view of the Trump base and will have less impact on neutral voters as the election approaches. Any attempt to impeach the President is a fool’s errand because the Republican Senate will never convict.  In addition, impeachment would provide Trump with additional fuel for his claim that a vast conspiracy is afoot to discredit his 2016 election.

For Democrats to cobble together a winning strategy to defeat President Trump in 2020 will indeed be a formidable task.  The key will be to take back several key states that were part of the Obama coalition.  There must be a willingness to listen to those voters who turned Republican in 2016 and to address their needs. Unfortunately, a good strategy and a humble attitude will not be enough to defeat Trump if the economy keeps firing on all cylinders and continues to reward those who previously voted for him.

While the president has few leadership or administrative skills, his political savvy as the ringmaster of the presidential circus is formidable. Every decision he makes going forward will be based on reelection.  Unless the economy has an unexpected reversal, Trump will likely win a second term in 2020.

A BRIEF SUMMARY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

It is difficult enough to keep track of family schedules, local news and domestic politics.  Attempting to keep informed on the status of other countries is beyond the capabilities of most of us.  Unless one is blessed with entirely too much free time and an insatiable appetite for reading the Economist, the Financial Times and the daily postings of Foreign Affairs. What follows is my short summary of where other select countries stand in this summer of 2019.

↔ Russia. Economically, Russia is a one trick pony with oil and gas production.  Putin has mastered the art of the authoritarian regime, with limited democracy, by instilling a sense of patriotism through propaganda based on Russian history and myth. Military adventurism against countries with Russian speaking populations and in Syria have helped Putin remain popular.  This approach is wearing thin as living conditions have not improved. 

↑ China.  While China appears to be faltering in the short term with riots in Hong Cong and at an economic disadvantage in the face of U.S. tariffs, these wounds are superficial.  American leaders think in terms of the next election cycle, the Chinese plan in terms of multiple decades.  China is well positioned to challenge the United States for hegemony in Asia and eventually beyond.

↓ Great Britain.  Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, Great Britain has faced its greatest challenge since WWII.  The popular vote to leave was contrary to what the established political elites thought was best for the country. The government has been unable to agree on the conditions for leaving. Two conservative Prime Ministers have resigned and Boris Johnson, a political jokester who favors “leave” at any cost is well positioned to take control.  The next deadline with the EU to finalize terms is in October.  The three possible outcomes: soft leave with a deal signed; hard leave with no agreement; and another referendum to possibly reverse the decision to leave, each are fraught with economic and political landmines.

↔ France.   Emmanuel Macron was elected President of France in 2017. It appeared that his country had escaped the right wing populism that was washing over Europe.  Macron championed rational economic reforms with unions, pensions and other cost saving measures.  The goodwill disappeared when a proposed tax on gasoline lead to the “yellow vest” demonstrations that lasted for months.  Macron has regained control of the streets, but not widened his political appeal, after showing his authoritarian stripes in permitting deadly police weapons like flash-ball guns and dispersal grenades against the demonstrators.  The political choice in France is now between authoritarian neoliberalism and nationalist populism. 

↔ Mexico.  Mexico needs the new trade agreement negotiated with Trump and Canada (Usmca) to pass Congress.  This helps explain Mexican cooperation with the President in addressing the flow of refugees flowing from Central America to the U.S. border.  As the border patrols from both countries change diapers and make baloney sandwiches, it is open season for the flow of drugs to the north and cash/guns to the south.

↓ Venezuela, Cuba.  American foreign policy is directed against these two socialist countries while other nations to our south, below Mexico, are ignored. An American supported coup in Venezuela failed to topple Nicolas Maduro. Economic embargoes remains in place against both countries.  Cuba depends on oil from Venezuela, but all exports are in shambles, resulting in severe deprivations to both local populations.

↑ Turkey.  On 15 July 2016, an unsuccessful coup was attempted in Turkey against state institutions, including the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  Erdogan used this event to jail and purge hundreds of thousands of his detractors from the military, civil service and higher education.  In addition, he has sought to cozy up to Russia and ignore his European allies, while becoming more authoritarian.  This somber picture began to change when his scheme to annul the election of a popular, more liberal, opponent to become the mayor of Istanbul failed after a second election on June 23. Shoots of democracy are beginning to reappear in Turkey and the currency is recovering from a 40% drop in value.

↔ Israel.  On the outside Israel appears to be in the best position since its creation.  The most important Israeli ally, the U.S. has moved its embassy to Jerusalem and recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.  Many Arab countries are no longer calling for Israel’s destruction as they have common cause against Iran.  Iran, Israel’s mortal enemy, is in an economic tailspin because of U.S. sanctions. But none of these positive developments will solve a more desperate Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, or a more desperate Palestinian population from starting a new wave of violence, or address the multitude of domestic problems facing Israel.

For more background on any of these countries (or others), the best up to date analysis can be found at the Economist.com, on numerous podcasts and blogs and of course, Wikipedia.