Remember all the excitement among Democrats when Conor Lamb
won the special election for Congress in a Republican district. This euphoria
was repeated when the Democratic Party took back the House of Representatives
in the mid-term elections. Now it is happening again, as Trump levels racist
attacks against progressive members of Congress. Many political pundits are predicting that
these events, along with other positive signs, are setting up a major
Democratic victory for the presidency in the 2020 election.
As I survey the political landscape in the summer of 2019, I
do not feel confident that Trump will be defeated. In fact, given his formidable array of
political advantages as the incumbent President, I believe the odds of Trump
being reelected increase; the closer we get to Election Day.
The economy has always been a major factor in national
elections, and Trump’s economy is the most robust in the world. Despite ongoing
trade battles with China and saber rattling with Iran, the stock market hit
all-time highs in mid-July. Unemployment, new jobs and GNP numbers continue to
impress. Consumer spending is on fire with not even a hint of recession on the
horizon. The Federal Reserve has conceded
to the President’s demand to reduce interest rates, guaranteeing that cheap
borrowing and the economic expansion will keep humming along through 2020.
A great deal of
research has been conducted over the years on the effect of economic conditions
on presidential elections. Politico
points out that Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling,
shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the
advantage of incumbency.
Most Americans have little interest in following Trump’s
tweets. They are not familiar with the
myriad of articles, books and cable news shows that explain how Trump has
degraded both domestic and foreign policy institutions. They do not care who was appointed to the
Trump cabinet or why certain officials resigned in disgrace.
These voters, who are not avowed members of one of our
partisan political tribes, and who have no ideological skin in the game, will
enter the voting booth in 2020 asking one primary question: do I feel more economically secure and has my
401(k) account grown since the last election? In many cases, Trump gets an
affirmative vote, no matter what secondary issues may concern the voter.
In addition to the economy, if matters stay the same, the
President will also be able to claim a reduction in American troops in the
Mid-East with no new entanglements. This
is critical to winning over a war weary nation and a position shared by most of
the Democratic electorate.
There will be those
that challenge my assessment of Trump’s political future. They will point to
his immoral standing, his imperial and narcissistic personality and his
personal attacks against the rule of law, the media and against individuals who
disagree with him. These were valid issues leading up to the 2016 election but
will hold little water in 2020. At this point there is nothing new about
Trump’s past, his political views or his treatment of individuals that would
shock those who are familiar with his history.
Voters have come to expect the President to act out in
unpredictable ways. Trump tends to say things that affront those who would
never vote for him in the first place.
He is careful to both praise and reward his political base with frequent
announcements. Moreover, voters in recent elections have appeared to be been
more influenced by “what affects them” than “what offends them.”
What about the Mueller Report and the possibility of the
Democratic House bringing impeachment proceedings? The Report has not changed the view of the
Trump base and will have less impact on neutral voters as the election
approaches. Any attempt to impeach the President is a fool’s errand because the
Republican Senate will never convict. In
addition, impeachment would provide Trump with additional fuel for his claim
that a vast conspiracy is afoot to discredit his 2016 election.
For Democrats to cobble together a winning strategy to
defeat President Trump in 2020 will indeed be a formidable task. The key will be to take back several key
states that were part of the Obama coalition.
There must be a willingness to listen to those voters who turned
Republican in 2016 and to address their needs. Unfortunately, a good strategy
and a humble attitude will not be enough to defeat Trump if the economy keeps
firing on all cylinders and continues to reward those who previously voted for
him.
While the president has few leadership or administrative
skills, his political savvy as the ringmaster of the presidential circus is
formidable. Every decision he makes going forward will be based on
reelection. Unless the economy has an
unexpected reversal, Trump will likely win a second term in 2020.
No comments:
Post a Comment