AN ANALYSIS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WASHINGTON COUNTY

 

When it comes to presidential elections, Pennsylvania has become a crucial swing state and 2020 was no exception. The presidential candidates, followed by the herds of media attending to them, spent more time in Pennsylvania in the waning weeks of the campaign than in any other state.

On the evening of the election, President Trump enjoyed a sizeable lead because his supporters tended to vote in person on Election Day and their votes were quickly tallied. Over the next several days as the more Democratic mail-in vote was counted Biden caught up and surpassed the Trump vote.  The final certified vote total gave Biden an advantage of 81,555.

Given the fact that Trump took Pennsylvania in 2016 by 44,000 votes, an analysis of the recent results are crucial to understanding what changes have taken place.  Fortunately, the Philadelphia Inquirer and other news outlets have performed a deep dive into the Commonwealth results. A local political action committee, “SWPA Moving Forward”, has done the same for Washington County and South Western Pennsylvania.

The Inquirer results (reprinted on the front page of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) found that democracy is alive and well as voters in every single Pennsylvania County cast more votes this year than in 2016.  Highlighting this exceptional performance, voters cast 13% more presidential votes in 2020 with 64 out of 67 counties showing increases of more than 10%.

There were some interesting anomalies including the Philadelphia vote.  While Mr. Biden gained more total votes than did Obama or Clinton, President Trump’s improvement in Philadelphia over 2016 was his greatest gain of any Pennsylvania county.  The unexpected national shift of Hispanics for Trump played out on a smaller scale in Philadelphia. Moreover, many college students were not in the city to vote Democratic because of the pandemic.

In the Trump country of rural Pennsylvania, Biden often got a larger percentage of the vote than Hilary Clinton.  With the larger turnout, Trump actually received more net votes this year than in 2016.  There were only 10 counties where Trump increased both his percentage of the vote and his net vote.  Accordingly, rural Pennsylvania was a little less Republican this year.  However, because of the large turnout, Trump still received a boost from these counties.

As Democrats had hoped, the four Philadelphia suburban “collar” counties and Allegheny County powered Mr. Biden to victory in the Commonwealth.  There were also Democratic gains in the growing suburbs outside of Harrisburg and in the Lehigh Valley.

Biden’s “hometown advantage” of Scranton appears to have played a role in his win.  He finished with a 9,657 margin of victory in Lackawanna County where Scranton is the County Seat. In neighboring Republican Luzerne County he improved on Clinton’s 2016 vote totals.

Turning to South Western Pennsylvania, the best analysis I have read was prepared by “SWPA Moving Forward”.  Concerned citizens from Washington County formed this political action committee during the presidential campaign. Its mission was to promote pro-Biden public policy issues and to nurture future Democratic candidates in our section of the Commonwealth that is becoming more Republican. The group ran a series of positive, well received, fact based political ads during the campaign in support of Mr. Biden.

As was the trend elsewhere in the Commonwealth, the Biden vote increased over the Clinton vote because of the increased turnout.  In Washington County Biden received 45,151 votes, an increase of 8,829 over Clinton in 2016.  Biden’s increase in percentage of total votes cast increased to 38% from 35.8% in 2016. One could argue that the combined increased vote totals in Washington, Beaver, Westmoreland, Fayette and Greene Counties was a significant factor in his winning Pennsylvania.

Voter registration is becoming more Republican in Washington County.  At last count Republican registration increased from 39.84% to 44.29% of total registration; Democrats declined from 48.99% to 43.52%; and Independents increased from 11.16% to 12.18%.

What do political action committees like SWPA Moving Forward and other Democratic leaders need to accomplish to turn Washington County back to the Democratic fold?  In my view, there are four major tasks.  First, new candidates must be groomed that follow the template of Congressman Connor Lamb and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. These elected officials have won in Republican jurisdictions by developing an independent, moderate Democratic message that is fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

Second, I agree with the stated mission of SWPA Moving Forward that Democrats must “find ways to communicate our platform and values in a manner that connects to the electorate.” This would include knocking down the misstatements and outright lies promulgated by Pennsylvania’s Republican far right. On the proactive level Democrats must find common ground to simultaneously engage new voters while reengaging with older ones.

Third, now that Republicans have control of local government in Washington County, they need to be held accountable. Republicans unfairly attacked former Commissioner Harlan Shober to gain elected office and local Democrats must now return the favor.  For example, the electorate must be reminded that the two Republican Commissioners recently sanctioned the 10 million dollar purchase of an unneeded new building in the middle of a pandemic.

Lastly, local Democrats must use this moment of Trump negativism and Biden hope for the future to register as many new voters as possible.  Waiting for the next election before initiated voter registration would be a mistake.