To be a moderate in today’s political playground is
difficult. Anyone who attempts to begin reasonable dialogue while playing in
the partisan sandbox is likely to be attacked by bullies from both right wing
Trump nativists and left wing cultural warriors. It is safer to stay at home
(away from social media) and hope that the extremes cancel each other out
before they burn down the public park.
Democrats and Republicans are experiencing a similar problem
of vocal extremists seeking to control each party’s messaging. On the right,
traditional conservative Republicans are being “primaried” out of office by neophyte
candidates with few political credentials other than their loyalty to Donald
Trump. These candidates do not understand or care about public policy. Their
forte is energizing the Trump base and attacking all others.
On the left are cultural activists who have replaced the
normal push for incremental cultural change with an accelerated cultural agenda.
Under this trend, Democrats are judged not only by the public policies they
support, but also by the extent they are “woke” on important social issues.
This includes the call to defund the police, the recognition of white privlege
and institutional racism and embracing the extreme element of the Me Too
movement.
What is different about the two political extremes is that
most Republicans have welcomed the gravitation to Trumpism as a Faustian
bargain designed to win back Congress in 2022. The Republican Party is laser-
focused and will tolerate little dissent among its leadership on the road to
gain short-term political advantages.
Conversely, all Democrats are not equally sold on the
cultural wars. While activist progressives are proud to have pushed the Democratic
Party toward the left, a more measured opposition wants to slow the process
down to keep moderates and Independents under the Democratic tent.
In today’s political climate, the extremist dilemma is a
greater obstacle to gaining and keeping political power for Democrats than for
Republicans. By refusing to exercise moderation, Republicans have kept their
coalition together and gained strength among voters who are against one or more
progressive cultural positions. On the other hand, when the Democratic Party
moves further to the left, it turns off voters afraid of being labeled
left-wing extremists or socialists. Better to be considered a patriot in favor
of God & Country than to have the neighbors believe you are a closet communist.
In my view, winning elections remains the ultimate prize,
not changing social mores faster than the average American can absorb. I am in
the same camp as the journalist Kevin Drum, a long-time writer for the
ultra-liberal publication Mother Jones. In
a recent article, he wrote: “Being personally happy means nothing in politics.
What matters is what the median voter feels and Democrats have been moving
further and further away from the median voter for years.” (If You Hate the Cultural Wars, Blame Liberals,
July 3, 2021)
Mr. Drum does a back of the envelope analysis to conclude
that “Despite endless hopeful invocations of ‘but polls show that people like
our positions,’ the truth is that the Democratic party has been pulled far
enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plan scary.” Moderate
voters feel uncomfortable that “their entire lives are being held up to a
spotlight and found wanting.”
The recent NYC Democratic Primary has provided an
interesting snapshot of the status of more moderate Democratic politics. During
the campaign, the progressive leanings of the present mayor, Bill de Blasio, or
the firebrand Bronx Congresswoman, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, were nowhere in
evidence. Eric Adams, a former NYPD captain, won the primary. His campaign
message was moderate and straight forward, based on recovery from the pandemic
and controlling violent crime rates.
The midterm elections in 2022 will determine whether the
Biden administration is able to effectively govern in the last two years of his
term. Democrats cannot forget that the flood of new voters who helped power
Obama to his two historic wins fell away in the midterms. This permitted Republicans to control
Congress and functionally end Obama’s ability to pass legislation. For Biden to avoid this result several
factors are important.
First, it is impossible to win in 2022 without the
Democratic base fully engaged. Accordingly, Biden is correct in honoring his
commitments to his progressive base. However, he should emphasis those policies,
like infrastructure, that least offend moderates and Independents.
Second, Democrats must turn the anti-democratic,
anti-immigration and anti-equality messaging of Trumpism to its advantage with
the same fervor as when Trump was in office. The more successful Trump is in
recruiting unqualified candidates in Republican primaries the better Democrats
will do in the general elections.
Third, Democrats must turn Republican attempts to limit
voting into a central campaign issue so that young voters and voters of color
have a stake in overcoming any voting impediments to prove that their voices
matter.
Fourth, analysts believe that Democrats will need to capture
about 52% of the national popular vote to maintain a House majority. This can
only be accomplished if many of the marginal Democratic voters who participated
in the 2020 election remain in the electorate.
Republicans have learned that extremism can win local and state
elections. Democrats must counter by moderating
their rhetoric on sensitive social issues. Keeping moderates and Independents
engaged is the key to maintaining Democratic control of Congress in 2020.
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