For those willing to get involved in political campaigns, there has never been a better opportunity to make a difference at the national level. The main event is the most closely watched Senate race in the country. Whichever party replaces Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey could well determine control of the Senate for the remainder of the Biden presidency.
The scramble by Republican candidates to replace Toomey has provided juicy, soap-opera drama in recent months. Early on, former President Trump endorsed Sean Parnell in the Senate primary. In late November 2021, Parnell suspended his campaign after a judge ruled against him in a custody battle. Credible testimony had included allegations that he physically and verbally abused his wife and children.
Smelling blood in the water, two wealthy sharks swam into Pennsylvania and announced their intent to run in the Senate Republican primary. First, television celebrity and former heart surgeon, Mehmet Oz, entered the fray with few political credentials and fewer ties to Pennsylvania. Dr. Oz apparently believes that, like Donald Trump, his smiling face and huckster demeanor will win the day.
Not to be outdone, former hedge fund manager David McCormick appeared on scene with an exploratory committee and vast amounts of media ad buys. He then made it official by entering the race to take on Oz. Like his opponent, McCormick has no political experience, few recent ties to Pennsylvania but deep pockets. He is portraying himself in commercials as a folksy farmer who can defeat the Democratic socialists and "woke" mob.
While these two Republican candidates continue to slice each other with vicious attack ads, the primary contest on the Democratic side is more sedate. The two "top-tier" primary candidates are Congressman Conor Lamb and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. Both respect each other as elected officials. Their policy positions are similar, and the only question in the primary is who is more electable. Lamb's advantage is that he won a congressional seat in a pro-Trump district while Fetterman has won a statewide contest. The general election will be the most expensive Senate campaign in Pennsylvania history.
This year offers the rare occasion when a Pennsylvania Senate and governor's race appear on the same ballot. The stakes are high. If a Republican wins it will give the party control of both legislative chambers and the executive office. The sole Democratic candidate to replace Gov. Tom Wolf is Attorney General Josh Shapiro. In a surprise move Shapiro has already endorsed a Black state lawmaker from Allegheny County, Austin Davis, for lieutenant governor. This gives him geographic and racial diversity on his ticket.
In the Republican primary for governor, it is difficult to pick a frontrunner where there are at least five viable candidates. Recently, Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman may have separated himself from the pack by bringing Trump loyalist Kellyanne Conway on to his campaign staff.
In the background a host of other significant political issues are swirling around and building to a crescendo. Regarding district election boundaries, there has been a yearlong period of public hearings and political posturing. The result will determine the "once-a-decade" final composition of Pennsylvania's legislative and congressional district election maps. Non-partisan rationality and compromise have failed. The Republican Legislature and Democratic governor cannot reach an agreement compelling the appellate courts to again decide the final district maps. Due to candidate filing deadlines, if the courts do not act quickly, the May primary could be delayed.
Former President Trump's unprecedented challenge to his 2020 election loss (the big lie) has spilled over into a furious debate of whether Pennsylvania election laws should be changed to favor Trump positions in future elections. The same Republican elected officials who passed legislation to make it easier to vote before Trump became president have now reversed course and proposed procedures that would narrow voter participation.
If a Republican is elected governor, these ballot box limitations will easily pass. If a Democrat is elected, Republicans plan to introduce constitutional amendments to change election laws. These changes would include requiring "government-issued identification" to vote and require the state auditor general to review elections and voter rolls for accuracy, even when there are no improprieties.
Last week, Commonwealth Court, along party lines, upheld a Republican challenge to Pennsylvania's highly successful vote by mail procedures. Mail-in ballots helped President Joe Biden win the state by some 80,000 votes. The questionable ruling held that Article VII section 14 of our state constitution requires citizens to vote in person unless they have a specific excuse. Wolf immediately filed an appeal. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which has a Democratic majority, will now decide whether there is access to mail-in ballots in future elections.
In order to stay current on all of these fast-moving developments, there is no better source than the nonpartisan Spotlight PA, a collaborative newsroom dedicated to producing investigative journalism. It regularly appears in newspapers throughout the state and features updates on political topics of interest in the commonwealth.
Gary Stout is a Washington attorney.
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