THE MOST IMPORTANT NATIONAL ELECTION

The Aesop Fable of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” is an apt description of Democratic Party warnings prior to the last several national elections. Since 2016, each presidential and midterm election has been called “the most important election of our lifetime.” This November, the 2022 midterms are no exception. Democrats will seek to overcome traditional voting patterns giving advantages to Republicans. In the midterms, the national party in power always has an uphill battle justifying to voters two years of decision making, especially when a myriad of events can and often do go wrong.

Mark Danner asked in a recent essay in the New York Review of Books (We’re In an Emergency, Act Like It, August 18, 2022 issue), “What if this time, like the boy who cried wolf, we find ourselves screaming that the emergency is real – and no one pays attention?” When the wolf is at the door, we need to cry aloud with some solid facts to explain the emergency and avoid the catastrophe. Fear and anger can motivate voters and win elections.

President Biden’s low poll numbers and a series of challenges for the country explain the dire outlook for Democrats. These issues include high inflation levels and fraying trust in civic institutions — caused, in part, by Republican anti-democratic efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. 

Danner’s essay urges Democrats to make crystal clear what is at stake in November.  He believes that American voters have not faced so grave a choice at the ballot box since 1860 when Abraham Lincoln defeated several candidates with southern sympathies and set the stage for the Civil War. He identifies an unprecedented series of first time crisis events facing the American electorate. He believes that unless the growing authoritarianism brought on by these issues is defeated at the polls, our democracy will continue to falter.

First, the 2022 midterms will be held following the only coup d’état in our nation’s history, instigated by the former president. Second, these are the first elections following a decision by a far right Supreme Court to abolish a fifty-year entitlement allowing women a choice on abortion. Third, this is the first election that will determine whether Republican state legislatures rather than non-political civil servants will be given the authority to determine who gets to vote, how the votes are counted and when future election results can be overturned.

If Republicans gain control of Congress in 2022 and the White House in 2024, the America of the immediate future will be more authoritarian. We will be a nation where government can intervene in personal decisions − even the most intimate. This could include the use of contraceptives, whom you can love and whom you can marry. Large corporations will become less regulated.  The Medicare and Social Security programs will come under attack and could be reduced. Climate change will be ignored. Democratic institutions will be further weakened.  When it comes to firearms, the immature and the unbalanced will continue to walk the streets as heavily armed as combat soldiers.  

Danner believes that the Democratic ”cry wolf” alarm must be bolstered by a Democratic Contract with America, similar to the plan Newt Gingrich, then Republican Speaker of the House, introduced for his party in 1994. Such an idea is off to a positive start with the recent package of legislation passed by the Democratic Congress, including the Inflation Reduction Act. Voters must be reminded that a Republican controlled Congress will  reverse these gains. A concrete package of new legislation to help the middle class must be developed and articulated.

Danner concludes his essay with the observation, that the 2022 midterm elections need to be more than just about traditional issues, like the economy or cultural issues designed by Republicans to frighten voters.  He urges Democrats to “cry wolf” from the rooftops because the principles of our unique democratic government are at stake.

To keep Democrats in power, it will not be enough to hope that Trump “might” declare his intent to run in 2024 before November or that extreme right wing primary winners “might” be defeated by more even handed Democrats. President Biden, his administration, Democrats in Congress, responsible Republicans and each of us who care must all cry wolf with urgency and frequency. Elections matter. Getting out the vote for the midterms by motivating Democrats is essential.

My major criticism of the Danner essay is that it does not consider the aftermath of an unexpected Democratic midterm election victory. This would not be a case of “all’s well that ends well.”  If Democrats maintain control of Congress, I fear a right wing backlash similar to what happened in 1860 when Lincoln won the presidency and South Carolina succeeded from the union.  Republicans will invoke “stop the steal” and contest close elections across the country. Fringe groups will advocate violence. Republicans will rally behind Trump or a like-minded candidate to run in 2024.

Democrats must not let the November midterms be reduced to a choice between more authoritarianism if Republicans win or more division and violence if Democrats win. The Democrats must offer a positive alternative through the above-mentioned Democratic Contract with America. The plan must have broad, moderate appeal beyond the progressive wing of the party. Otherwise, the schisms that made the Civil War inevitable in 1860 may be repeated following this year’s midterm elections.

 

KENTUCKY IS ON MY MIND

 

The United States of America has one of the most complex cultural identities in the world due to its immense size and diverse heritage. Unlike most countries, America’s vast dimensions and immigration history have enabled the formation of subcultures that are often geographically determined because of settlement patterns and landscape differences. 

Kentucky provides a wonderful example.  The region is unlike the northeast where I was born and have spent much of my life. Its citizens often think, act, talk and vote differently than I. However, despite being poles apart, I have come to admire the people of Kentucky as much as any of my northern neighbors.  Kentucky is on my mind.

Months before the Ukraine war became front and center in our hearts and minds, Kentucky earned this spot following a terrible tragedy. During the late evening of Friday, December 10, 2021, an unusually violent, long-track tornado moved across Western Kentucky producing catastrophic damage through eleven counties.  The tornado traveled 166 miles, and 57 fatalities were confirmed. It caused 3.5 billion dollars in property damage.

Last week another once in a lifetime natural disaster rocked the Eastern Kentucky hill country. Flooding caused by six to nine inches of rain led to thousands stranded in the remote mountain hollows for days. As of this writing, there are at least 37 deaths and hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage.

What struck me after both unpredictable disasters is the resilience of the Kentucky people. Governor Andy Beshear summed it up well: "These are proud, hardworking folks that have just lost it all, and I think the least we can do as human beings, as people with values, is to give and do what we can to get them back on their feet."  Everyone I witnessed being interviewed stated that Kentucky was their home and that they would rebuild.

Kentucky and Pennsylvania are two of only four states that call themselves commonwealths. In both, the urban areas are mostly Democratic with vast Republican rural areas. Kentucky is mostly “South” with a bit of “Midwest” mixed in. It borders Illinois, Indiana and Ohio to the north; West Virginia and Virginia to the east; Tennessee to the south and Missouri to the west.

Many people now living in the Appalachian Mountains of Eastern Kentucky are descendants of Scotch-Irish who immigrated to America in the 1700s. After the English persecuted these mostly sheep farmers, they left the British Isles in order to seek a better life. As the colonies became more populated, settlers began to push farther west into the mountains. The Scotch-Irish carved out small farms and homesteads in the remote hollows and valleys of the Appalachian Mountains. For the most part, they were and still are farmers, loggers, and coal miners. 

In recent years, I have developed a guilty pleasure in reading fiction depicting the people in and around the Eastern Kentucky hill country. Excellent authors like Chris Offuit (The Killing Fields, Country Dark); Brian Panowich (Bull Mountain) and new on the scene S.A. Cosby (Blacktop Wasteland) know their subject well. The stories are raw and violent, but the moral code from this unique geographical area is always the same.

First, no one living in the eastern small hill towns is considered a native unless the family history goes back at least a hundred years. Second, family is more important than God or country. If there is a dishonored distant cousin on your mother’s side whom you have never met, be prepared to seek retribution at any cost. Third, many make a living believing that the law and the government are not to be obeyed, but rather outwitted. Running moonshine, avoiding taxes, organizing rooster fights and collecting unearned government benefits are all admired endeavors.

Using Louisville as a dividing line, many would characterize Eastern and Western Kentucky as two different states. The vast fields of bluegrass in Western Kentucky have given us uniquely American bluegrass music. Bluegrass citizens love horses and look forward to the biggest party of the year, the Kentucky Derby. The Bluegrass Region is more affluent and cosmopolitan with activities that are typical of more urban areas.

Hunting season for a vast range of critters begins in August and extends through May. Most Kentucky citizens own several guns and go hunting on a regular basis. Concealed carry is legal for anyone at least 21 years old who can legally possess a firearm without a license/permit.

Kentucky has produced a varied collection of native sons. Four of the most renowned are Daniel Boone, Abraham Lincoln, Jefferson Davis and Mohammad Ali. The range extends from gonzo writer Hunter S. Thompson to country singer Loretta Lynn.

American diversity is not simply taking note of more recent ethnic and cultural differences that help enrich our urban communities. Diversity has been with us since the colonial period and has always made us a stronger nation. It is time to celebrate our amazing array of distinctive populations and to stop disparaging others for being different. In truth, for those seeking a lower cost of living and who enjoy outdoor activities, Kentucky makes an excellent place to live and work.

The Commonwealth of Kentucky (and other states outside of our immediate purview) help to define who we are as a nation. We are enriched by the unique history and culture of all sections of the country that define America.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DO DEMOCRATS HAVE A PLAN?

 

“I am not a member of an organized political party. I am a Democrat.” Will Rogers

For those of us who follow the day-to-day political news, being a Democrat can be a frustrating experience. Despite the Democratic presidential candidate having won the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections (though thanks to the Electoral College system, just five presidential terms), the party seems unable to decide what and whom it represents. Moderate Democrats and progressives are in conflict over many legislative initiatives. Well-pleased Republicans look on with a mostly united front, as Democrats appear to be bashing each other out of their slim Congressional majority ahead of the upcoming mid-term elections.

To quiet ones’ nerves, it is sometimes helpful to stand back from the news cycle and consider a more panoramic view of the Democratic Party. A recent book, What It Took to Win: A History of the Democratic Party, by Michael Kazin, fits the bill by reminding me why I am a Democrat.

Mr. Kazin traces the history of what he terms “the oldest mass party in the world.” He believes that Martin Van Buren in the 1820s, not Thomas Jefferson, was the true father of the Party. Van Buren molded Democrats into a powerful electoral machine, complete with a network of local newspapers, nominating conventions and a spoils system of government jobs. My father, the nephew of a Democratic state senator, would benefit from Van Buren’s handiwork over a century later in 1949.  Harry Truman awarded him the plum position of postmaster in our small NJ town.

After Democrats found a charismatic leader in Andrew Jackson, two principles would guide the party until the 1960s. The first, Kazin calls “moral capitalism,” the belief that government should serve the interests of ordinary Americans not business elites. The second is white supremacy. Many Northern Democrats supported the right of their southern Democrat brothers to hold slaves and later supported the Jim Crow laws.

The original populist, Democrat William Jennings Bryant, believed that social change required using public authority to redistribute private wealth. However, his three presidential campaigns ended in failure because his message never caught on with industrial workers or the middle class. Finally, a Democrat, Woodrow Wilson, was elected president. He increased antitrust legislation and instituted an income tax on wealthy Americans. Neither Bryant nor Wilson had any interest in racial justice.

Democrats came to control the cities, and their political success was due to Irish dominated political machines. Industrial unions got out the Democratic vote. The unions took the Democratic Party to the left and gave FDR the influence he needed to pass the more radical elements of the 1930s New Deal. After WWII, a new breed of Democratic leaders, black and white, were anxious to dismantle segregation. Slowly, the two major parties switched identities with regard to race until LBJ’s Civil Rights Act sealed the deal. Republicans found a new home in the south.

The Vietnam War, feminism, the LGBTQ+ community and immigration issues all helped to further galvanize the modern Democratic Party. However, the conflict grew between socially liberal and fiscally moderate leaders like JFK, the Clintons and Obama and all-in progressive social Democrats like Bernie Sanders. Under its “large tent,” the present Democratic party has been unable to forge a coalition of working and lower middle class voters of all races.

As things stand today, Democrats can count on affluent urban voters, members of racial minorities and a majority of women. Conversely, Republicans have locked up voters in rural and “small town” America where declining industrialization and globalization have led to chronic economic decline. Why Democrats no longer speak to many white, working class Americans remains the great political mystery of our time.

In 2022, there are two problems with Democratic messaging. First, the Democratic “large tent” that seeks to attract both progressives and moderates has ended up angering one and then the other. Progressives believed President Biden would “go-big” and pass massive social reform, climate change and tax increases of the wealthy. On the other hand, moderates were sure that with a slim electoral mandate Biden would “stay small” and work to heal the damage Trump caused to our democratic institutions.

Second, the progressive left has opened up a cultural war can-of-worms by giving Republicans the opportunity to invoke a negative vocabulary with which to frighten middle class Americans. Democrats need these voters to move forward. The misused concepts of wokeness, cancel culture, defund the police, banning guns, Marxism, “offensive” public health mandates and critical race theory are all wrongly applied by conservative media. This has influenced white Americans to turn away from the Democratic Party.

What is to be done? Returning to the author Michael Kazin, he observes that historically Democrats succeed when they enact policies such as Medicare that serve all segments of the working middle class. He cautions that new initiatives must not be seen by white voters to benefit only minorities.

A winning plan will not be easy because it must walk a fine line between being too progressive and too status quo in order to keep a winning coalition together. All segments of the Democratic Party must be prepared to compromise starting with the Inflation Reduction Act now before Congress. With proper messaging and sound policies, the white middle class should return to their historical place under the Democratic tent.