THE MOST IMPORTANT NATIONAL ELECTION

The Aesop Fable of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” is an apt description of Democratic Party warnings prior to the last several national elections. Since 2016, each presidential and midterm election has been called “the most important election of our lifetime.” This November, the 2022 midterms are no exception. Democrats will seek to overcome traditional voting patterns giving advantages to Republicans. In the midterms, the national party in power always has an uphill battle justifying to voters two years of decision making, especially when a myriad of events can and often do go wrong.

Mark Danner asked in a recent essay in the New York Review of Books (We’re In an Emergency, Act Like It, August 18, 2022 issue), “What if this time, like the boy who cried wolf, we find ourselves screaming that the emergency is real – and no one pays attention?” When the wolf is at the door, we need to cry aloud with some solid facts to explain the emergency and avoid the catastrophe. Fear and anger can motivate voters and win elections.

President Biden’s low poll numbers and a series of challenges for the country explain the dire outlook for Democrats. These issues include high inflation levels and fraying trust in civic institutions — caused, in part, by Republican anti-democratic efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. 

Danner’s essay urges Democrats to make crystal clear what is at stake in November.  He believes that American voters have not faced so grave a choice at the ballot box since 1860 when Abraham Lincoln defeated several candidates with southern sympathies and set the stage for the Civil War. He identifies an unprecedented series of first time crisis events facing the American electorate. He believes that unless the growing authoritarianism brought on by these issues is defeated at the polls, our democracy will continue to falter.

First, the 2022 midterms will be held following the only coup d’état in our nation’s history, instigated by the former president. Second, these are the first elections following a decision by a far right Supreme Court to abolish a fifty-year entitlement allowing women a choice on abortion. Third, this is the first election that will determine whether Republican state legislatures rather than non-political civil servants will be given the authority to determine who gets to vote, how the votes are counted and when future election results can be overturned.

If Republicans gain control of Congress in 2022 and the White House in 2024, the America of the immediate future will be more authoritarian. We will be a nation where government can intervene in personal decisions − even the most intimate. This could include the use of contraceptives, whom you can love and whom you can marry. Large corporations will become less regulated.  The Medicare and Social Security programs will come under attack and could be reduced. Climate change will be ignored. Democratic institutions will be further weakened.  When it comes to firearms, the immature and the unbalanced will continue to walk the streets as heavily armed as combat soldiers.  

Danner believes that the Democratic ”cry wolf” alarm must be bolstered by a Democratic Contract with America, similar to the plan Newt Gingrich, then Republican Speaker of the House, introduced for his party in 1994. Such an idea is off to a positive start with the recent package of legislation passed by the Democratic Congress, including the Inflation Reduction Act. Voters must be reminded that a Republican controlled Congress will  reverse these gains. A concrete package of new legislation to help the middle class must be developed and articulated.

Danner concludes his essay with the observation, that the 2022 midterm elections need to be more than just about traditional issues, like the economy or cultural issues designed by Republicans to frighten voters.  He urges Democrats to “cry wolf” from the rooftops because the principles of our unique democratic government are at stake.

To keep Democrats in power, it will not be enough to hope that Trump “might” declare his intent to run in 2024 before November or that extreme right wing primary winners “might” be defeated by more even handed Democrats. President Biden, his administration, Democrats in Congress, responsible Republicans and each of us who care must all cry wolf with urgency and frequency. Elections matter. Getting out the vote for the midterms by motivating Democrats is essential.

My major criticism of the Danner essay is that it does not consider the aftermath of an unexpected Democratic midterm election victory. This would not be a case of “all’s well that ends well.”  If Democrats maintain control of Congress, I fear a right wing backlash similar to what happened in 1860 when Lincoln won the presidency and South Carolina succeeded from the union.  Republicans will invoke “stop the steal” and contest close elections across the country. Fringe groups will advocate violence. Republicans will rally behind Trump or a like-minded candidate to run in 2024.

Democrats must not let the November midterms be reduced to a choice between more authoritarianism if Republicans win or more division and violence if Democrats win. The Democrats must offer a positive alternative through the above-mentioned Democratic Contract with America. The plan must have broad, moderate appeal beyond the progressive wing of the party. Otherwise, the schisms that made the Civil War inevitable in 1860 may be repeated following this year’s midterm elections.