BUCKLE UP FOR A WILD RIDE

The August doldrums will soon disappear and politics in Washington County will reclaim center stage. Starting with the county fair, the focus will be on the critical two months leading up to the local November election for county offices. This will be followed by a 2024 presidential election campaign that promises to place Pennsylvania in the middle of a political maelstrom unlike any other in the history of American politics.

While much of the nation dozes through 2023, Washington County faces a crossroads in county government. Republican Diana Irey Vaughan has decided to step down from her Commissioner’s chair after 28 years of service. The dynamics of decision-making at the Commissioner’s meetings will inevitably change.

If the Democratic team of Larry Maggi and Cecil Township Supervisor Cindy Fisher pull off a November victory, there will likely be a return to an administration familiar to voters, from recent decades of Democratic rule. A Maggi-Fisher majority would be characterized by no tax increases, moderate spending on essential needs, and little drama in the Commissioners’ office. Civil servants in county government, who have been preparing resumes in anticipation of their termination, would breathe a sigh of relief.

A Republican victory in the Commissioners’ race comes with greater uncertainty. Neither Nick Sherman nor Electra Janis has disclosed plans for restructuring the county government. However, over the past four years, Sherman was often displeased with the reasonable path taken by his fellow Republican Commissioner, Ms. Irey Vaughan. He was sympathetic to the positions of radical pro-Trump election deniers. Accordingly, no one is sure what action a Republican administration would take to placate these extremists.

In sizing up the November Commissioner’s race, there are several unknowns involving how residents will vote. First, could the trend from four years ago, when Republicans were elected to county offices, be reversed? Under this theory, the theft of funds by a Democrat in the Clerk of Courts Office cost Democratic candidates many votes. Second, does the Republican advantage in voter registration preclude any opportunity for a Democratic victory? Third, will the infighting throughout the Washington County Republican Party cost them the Commissioners race? Fourth, if the Maggi-Fisher team wins the top of the ticket, will the Row Office officials also be replaced with Democrats?  

Following this November’s results, we will have little opportunity to escape politics before the nation focuses on Pennsylvania and the presidential election of 2024. In addition, because of the razor-thin Democratic majority in the Senate, Republicans have identified incumbent Democrat Bob Casey as one of their top targets in 2024, bringing national attention to the contest.

While urban dwellers trend toward voting Democratic and rural residents are overwhelmingly Republican, the “swing” suburbs now determine national elections. Thus, the Presidential candidates must focus on the suburban voters in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. Because the area surrounding Pittsburgh is considered suburban, our communities will garner unprecedented political advertising and campaign visits.  

Although we are over a year from the presidential election, President Biden recently appeared in Philadelphia and his wife in Pittsburgh to take credit for low unemployment and the infrastructure bill. Former President Trump recently spoke at an early campaign rally in Erie.

The battle to determine our next President is shaping up to be a rerun of 2020. The latest polling gives former President Trump a rating of over 50% among Republicans compared to 16% for his closest challenger, Ron DeSantis. President Biden has no serious Democratic opposition. No viable third-party candidate has yet appeared.

The last presidential campaign was a nasty affair. The post-election criminal conspiracy by Trump and his allies to overturn the Biden victory was unprecedented in American history. The 2024 campaign will be much worse. We are faced with a confrontation of victimhood and untruth vs. the rule of law.

When Trump receives the nomination of his party next July, he will be out on bail in two federal and two state indictments. His “Save America” PAC spent over $40 million on criminal legal fees so far in 2023. The New York felony trial involving Stormy Daniels's hush money should be completed and on appeal. The federal trial in Florida on the classified documents charges is likely to be completed and the verdict on appeal. The other two indictments involving election conspiracies should also be scheduled for trial by July.

Trump will play off these criminal trials to raise money and to energize his “always Trump” supporters. His campaign strategy to regain the presidency will be to tear down the American legal system along with federal law enforcement and to undermine support for Ukraine. If elected, Trump has made it clear he plans to seek revenge against those who brought charges against him. If Trump loses, there will be another claim of election fraud, and he will send his furious hoard of election deniers back into the fray.

On the Democratic side of the equation, President Biden will be facing his own challenges. Congressional Republicans will use any specious claim of impropriety to bring impeachment proceedings against him. This will further muddy the election waters. Any uncertainty with the economy will loom large.

A continuous stream of national political commercials will start to run locally this November and accelerate during 2024. A vote from our area will be among the most sought-after in the country on Election Day.