THE ROLE OF BIDENOMICS IN THE 2024 CAMPAIGN

The White House is campaigning for the reelection of Joe Biden on the back of his economic policies, appropriately labeled “Bidenomics.” This commentary will examine what the President has achieved after three years in office. The analysis will consider why Biden is not receiving credit for his successes and what could go wrong in the 2024 campaign.

The Biden administration correctly argues that when it took office in January 2021, former President Trump left them with an economic and public health disaster. That January was the cruelest month for COVID-19 when more than 95,000 Americans died from the disease. The universal vaccination rollout was untested and bumpy with logistical problems. In the economy, unemployment was elevated to 6.3%. International supply chains were broken well beyond what any economist thought possible, and inflation would soon skyrocket. Hundreds of thousands of small businesses were at risk of permanently shutting down.

For the next 12 months, the Biden presidency was about getting vaccine shots into people's arms and providing economic aid to those most affected by the pandemic. In Biden’s first month in office, he announced the “American Rescue Plan.” Following its Congressional approval, the program provided $1.9 trillion in aid, one of the most extensive economic rescue efforts in U.S. history.

By late 2021, the Biden administration was able to pivot away from crisis mode and into developing its comprehensive blueprint to bring the country out of the pandemic and into a strong economic rebound. The centerpiece was the bipartisan “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.” This generational investment of $2 trillion in our nation’s infrastructure and competitiveness is designed to rebuild America’s roads, bridges, and rails. It expands access to clean drinking water, ensures every American has access to high-speed internet, and tackles the climate crisis. The infrastructure initiative was followed by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. This legislation sought to curb inflation and lower prescription drug prices. It invests in domestic energy production, emphasizing clean energy.  

With these legislative programs as background, the White House put together its goal to campaign on the benefits of Bidenomics in 2024. By July of 2023, the President could affirm that the economy had added more than 13 million jobs since the pandemic low point. Amazingly, 800,000 of the jobs were in manufacturing. Ten million applications for new small businesses were filed in 2022 and 2023. America experienced the strongest growth since the pandemic of any leading economy in the world. By this August, inflation has been cut in half and come down for 11 straight months. The country has experienced a 50 percent increase in Affordable Care Act medical insurance enrollment since Biden took office.

With all this positive news, how is it possible that Bidenomics does not have President Biden surging in the polls?

First, in our pessimistic media, negative speech gets more attention than positive statistics. Fox News and related pro-Trump media sources have nothing constructive to announce on the progress of Bidenomics to their listeners. Moreover, traditional news sources report on high inflation and skip stories based on a statistical analysis of the President’s successes.

Second, the same Republican members of Congress who voted against Biden’s economic policies and who attack Bidenomics as “big government overreach”, are now taking credit for the new job-creating projects in their districts. Unfortunately, many other projects funded by Biden’s efforts will not show results until long after the 2024 election.

Third, consumers continue to feel the effects of the record-high inflation resulting from the pandemic. While the overall inflation rate has dramatically decreased, sticky inflation on certain consumer items and gasoline has kept these prices above pre-pandemic levels.

Fourth, the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation under control are designed to raise the unemployment rate and lower wages, which are not positive developments for the middle class.

Fifth, the Fed’s major weapon to fight inflation has been to raise interest rates. This has made the cost of consumer borrowing more expensive. Seven percent mortgage rates have discouraged first-time homebuyers.

Lastly, there is a general sense of economic uncertainty, and fears of a recession remain remarkably high. All of this leads to only 41 percent of Americans approving of President Biden’s job on the economy, despite all the success over his three years in office.

There is a danger that the President and other Democrats running for office will place too much emphasis on Bidenomics in the 2024 campaign. For this strategy to work the economy must be improving twelve months from now. Inflation and interest rates must both be down. The President’s economic message must finally resonate with the American people. This is asking a great deal, much of it beyond Biden’s control.

A better strategy would be to broaden the Democratic campaign message to include the President’s foreign policy agenda. The Biden administration has shown decisive leadership in Ukraine and in uniting Japan/South Korea. America’s European allies and other countries have praised Biden’s efforts in promoting international democratic norms after serious erosion during the Trump era.

The remaining option is to go fully negative against Trumpism and the Republicans who follow the former president’s creed. This approach is not in Biden’s DNA, and he would prefer to stand back and not engage with Trump or gloat about his legal problems.  However, negative campaigning may be the last best option for influencing undecided voters in 2024.