A YEAR OF SEVENTY-SIX WORLWIDE ELECTIONS

“The stability of democracies depends on the possibility of elections to be destabilizing.” The New Yorker, Talk of the Town, 1/15/24

Now that the domestic election season has begun, Americans are focused on the 2024 presidential campaign. There is little drama left in the primaries and a rerun of the 2020 Biden-Trump contest seems inevitable.

For those looking for different election events to expand their worldview, the Economist magazine and many other print news outlets point out that in 2024 a new international record will be set in exercising the right to vote. Seventy-six nations are going to the ballot box to choose new leaders. Countries with more than half the world’s population, over four billion people, will send their citizens to the polls.

According to the analysis in the Economist, “In the most democratic countries, such as Britain, the election may cause a substantial change in policy. In Russia, one of the least democratic, the vote is unlikely to weaken Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.” With this important contrast in mind, my commentary will take a look at some of the more noteworthy election events in 2024.

Taiwan. On January 13, Taiwan hosted the first of many critical elections in 2024. The results could reshape the global political order. The current Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) defeated two other candidates. Mr. Lai has long been an advocate of Taiwanese independence from China and does not support the mainland’s “one country-two systems” formula. Mr. Lai is a lightning rod, and his election could worsen the growing threat of Chinese military action against Taiwan. A moderating factor is the divided government where the Taiwanese legislature favors policies more acceptable to China.

Indonesia.  In the most populous country in South-East Asia, elections are scheduled in February. It is the world’s largest single day election. When the votes are counted a president and vice president, along with nearly 20,000 representatives, will be elected to national, provincial, and district parliaments from a pool of a quarter-million candidates. Indonesia’s young democracy is fragile. Political observers are concerned that illiberal meddling in election policies by the country’s old guard elites may cause irreparable harm to democracy.

Ukraine.  Under the Ukrainian Constitution, presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024. However, also under Ukrainian law, elections cannot occur because a declaration of martial law is in place. While 80 percent of Ukrainian voters do not want an election until the war is over, there are reasons to remove martial law and attempt a wartime election. Far right American Republicans are using the absence of voting as an excuse to suspend military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, holding a fair election under difficult circumstances would be well received by the European Union and NATO.

India. In May, Indian voters go to the polls. India’s ruling BJP political party, the world’s largest with 180 million members, is expected to carry the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi to victory.  In a recent survey, 78 percent of Indians approved of Mr. Modi’s job performance.

Two factors account for Modi’s popularity. First, his government’s economic program consists of ramped up investments in the public distribution of private goods, toilets, bank accounts, and electricity connections. Second is the steady march toward Hindu nationalism in which the strong central rule of a Hindu party and its leader brings about the rebirth of a “golden Hindu age.”  If Modi continues on this path, the future will be difficult for Muslims and others who value a pluralistic state with freedom of expression.

Mexico. On June 2, the 2024 presidential elections will mark a milestone in Mexico’s history. For the first time, a woman will likely be selected to lead the country.  Mexico’s incumbent president Andrés Manuel López Obrador has chosen former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Shinebaum Pardo as his successor. It appears that Ms. Sheinbaum would continue the strategy of minimal confrontation with organized crime, a policy that has come to be known as “hugs, not bullets.” Her election would leave the U.S. and Mexico far apart on important issues like controlling immigration and illegal drugs.

Britain. Sometime in the second half of 2024, British voters will cast their verdict after 13 years of chaotic conservative rule by the Tory government. In an ironic turn of events, British conservatives are now battling each other for control of the right. They have lost their grip on the Trump-like populism that previously slashed through established party lines on issues that kept them in power like leaving the European Union.

While the rest of Europe moves toward electing populist candidates based on concerns on the economy, immigration, and distrust of elites, Britain is poised to place a moderate left leaning Labor administration in charge. The Labor candidate, Keir Starmer, has laid out five missions: to boost house-building, job creation, economic growth; the reduction of consumer energy bills through the creation of a publicly owned Great British Energy; to create a National Health Service fit for the future; to tackle crime/antisocial behavior; and to reform childcare and education systems.

Important June elections in the European Parliament and the 18 contests in Africa are also worth examining. While many 2024 elections are no guarantee of democracy, representative government cannot exist without them. On the other hand, elections that are free but not fair can quickly turn liberty into oppression.