“Disruption is not good for people.”
Steve Ballmer, former president of Microsoft
In my lifetime, three individuals have been responsible for bringing
the stock market and the world economy to its knees. The first individual had
bad intentions. On September 11, 2001, Osama bin Laden unleashed terrorists who
crashed two planes into the World Trade Center, killing 2996 people. The stock
market fell more than 14% causing a 1.4 trillion loss in market value.
The second individual, an innocent, unknown person from China, was the first human
to contract the Covid-19 virus in 2019. The ensuing pandemic had a dramatic impact on world-wide financial markets,
causing investors to suffer significant losses. Between
Feb. 12 and March 23, of 2020, the Dow lost 37% of its value.
The third
individual is President Donald Trump. He will forever remain infamous for the recent
stock market crash and global disruptions. Trump personally triggered the
sell-off by invoking a head-scratching tariff policy that caused indefensible
damage to our economy. In an instant, he made our trading partners into trade
adversaries, erasing decades of good will and American success.
Trump’s actions
have triggered a trade war with China, essentially halting most China trade,
and may spark a global recession. In the period of one week, he was able to far
exceed the severity of my previous two examples. At one point, $11 trillion in
stock market value was lost. This represented the largest two-day-drop in
history.
Even after
Trump’s backtracking on April 9, when he postponed reciprocal tariffs for 90
days, he had already caused profound harm to the American economy. The market
has recovered a portion of its large loses. However, the day-to-day uncertainty
in the economy and unprecedented volatility in the stock market remains. There
is still no prudent tariff policy in place.
This entire
debacle was driven by Trump’s uninformed notion of how tariffs work. His
mindset was emboldened by White House ideological sycophants including Peter
Novarro. The truth is that Trump made up his tariff policy with no input from
the business, financial or international communities. He made up the debilitating
numbers for reciprocal tariffs. He made up the plan for application of the
tariffs with no advanced notice to those it impacted.
The financial
markets entered a dangerous cascading deep dive on April 9, causing chaotic
economic dysfunction. Trump then made up the rationale for suspending the
higher tariffs. Of course, he tried to claim a shallow victory. But the damage
was done, and confusion remains. The president continues to subject the country
to agonizing pain, fear, and chronic economic dislocations. This was all done
in order to cure an economic situation that did not require his intervention.
Before the
President’s actions, knowledgeable observers believed that the American economy
was the most successful and admired in the world. Only months earlier, Trump
had campaigned on lower prices, lower taxes, removal of impediments to business
growth and his support for cryptocurrency. Republicans were looking forward to
an extended period of prosperity, built on the previous administration’s low
unemployment and booming stock market.
Instead,
Trump’s voters were rewarded with a President determined to break the economic
system and to slow growth. According to the Economist, “On April 2nd,
Trump, spurred on by his delusions, announced the biggest break in America’s
trade policy in over a century – and committed the most profound, harmful, and
unnecessary economic error in the modern era.” The conservative editorial board
of the Wall Street Journal expressed similar concerns. “If Mr. Trump’s tariffs end up raising
prices, slowing growth and increasing unemployment, Republicans who have gone
along will likely break ranks, with expressions of resentment at having been
pressured into supporting policies they don’t believe in…President Trump should
fear the blowback from a governing strategy largely built on fear.”
While tariffs
are the story driving the headlines, Trump has caused indefensible harm against
America in other areas as well. First, Trump and his DOGE
layoffs of Federal employees have jeopardized essential services on which Americans
rely. These indiscriminate terminations threaten critical agency objectives in
everything from medical research to providing memorable experiences in our
National Parks. Trump’s actions have made it more difficult to keep Americans
safe and healthy in our airports, in the products we purchase, and in combating
contagious disease. We are learning quickly that there is nothing efficient
connected with “chainsaw” mass firings. However, there are extensive losses to
basic protections.
Second, universities in America are under attack. The Trump
administration is pretending to punish our most revered educational
institutions for their alleged compliance with or support for “antisemitism” and
diversity initiatives. The real targets are academic freedom and freedom of
speech which threaten Trump’s plans for autocratic rule. Universities that
support – or even tolerate – protests, research, or speech that goes against
the preferences of the Trump administration are investigated, and their federal
funding is frozen or cut. If Trump succeeds, a cornerstone of the American
educational system will be lost.
My last example of Trump’s unwarranted harm (there are many
others) is to the rule of law. Our laws, as interpreted by our courts, are sacrosanct. Democracy works because no one is above the
law. Trump’s course of revenge and retribution against former employees,
lawyers, law firms and judges must be stopped if our form of government is to
survive.
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