IMMIGRATION RESTRICTIONS ARE HURTING THE ECONOMY

 

There is more to the immigration story than the constant images of masked ICE agents chasing people of Hispanic heritage through parking lots and forcibly removing them from vehicles, schools, and workplaces. These operations, using racial profiling and aggressive military tactics, lack basic due process protections and require a full-throated protest. However, what is escaping the attention of many Americans are the negative economic effects that the Trump immigration restrictions are having on the economy.

Two weeks ago, my commentary addressed the tariff barriers that are being imposed across specific industries and against countries with whom the president has a political axe to grind. This commentary will discuss the second part of the Trump strategy to turn America into an isolated bunker at a substantial economic cost. His immigration policies are keeping talented foreigners from entering the country and is deporting those who are productive workers.

According to the Economist, until Trump took office in 2025, in every year since the 1930s, more people arrived in America than moved abroad. America’s borders have now been closed to the “huddled masses yearning to be free.”

The one astonishing exception has been a group of right-wing, White South Africans who claim to be victims of racial discrimination. Under a special program they have been resettled. This appears to be a politically motivated effort rather than a humanitarian one.

A recent report issued by the American Immigration Council concludes, “The first six months of the second Trump administration have arguably seen the most significant changes to U.S. immigration policy in the nation’s history. Taken one by one, as they have been announced or revealed, the effect can be overwhelming.”

National surveys conducted after recent ICE raids on workplaces and the deployment of Marines and National Guard troops by the Trump administration reveal the public’s changing views. Many Americans have softened their opposition to legal immigration in the space of a year. Overall, just one in three Republicans (34%) want to see lower legal immigration levels today compared to 50% last year. Regarding undocumented immigrants, a CBS/YouGov poll conducted on July 16-18, 2025 shows 51% of Americans overall now disapprove of Trump’s program of deportation, which is up from 41% disapproval in February.

This recent history provides background to review the economic fallout from the Trump immigration policies. This issue has not received the same attention as the moral/legal objections.

H1-B Visas. The H-1B visa category allows employers to petition for highly educated/skilled foreign professionals to temporarily work in “specialty occupations.”  These jobs require at least a bachelor’s degree or the equivalent and include positions like civil engineers, software developers, and researchers. Typically, the initial duration of an H-1B visa classification is three years but may be extended.

The administration claims that this type of visa displaces American workers and suppresses wages. On Sept. 19, 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order mandating that foreign nationals seeking to enter the Unites States as H-1B temporary workers must pay a $100,000 fee.

In fact, studies have found that H-1B workers complement and strengthen employment opportunities for native-born workers in the United States. Unemployment rates are relatively low in occupations that hire large numbers of these workers. Economists have sounded the alarm that this astronomical fee will likely hurt the U.S. economy by causing a “brain drain” of qualified workers who will now move on to other countries.

Reduced GDP and Larger Deficits.  The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that a four-year deportation program that removes 19% of migrant workers per year would cut our GDP by at least 1% over that period. Reduced tax revenues from fewer workers and the $170 billion for immigration and border enforcement in the “Big Beautiful Bill” will expand the federal deficit.

Job Losses for Native-Born Americans and Labor Shortages.  Rather than focus on the “worst of the worst,” the Trump administration has increasingly targeted worksites for immigration raids, picking up delivery drivers, restaurant employees, farmworkers, meatpackers, and other essential employees.

Because immigrant and native-born workers often have complementary jobs, there is a ripple effect when immigrants are deported. Consider the restaurants, construction companies, and farm operations that will close or reduce operations because of the inability to fill positions. The Economic Policy Institute estimated that deporting 4 million people over four years could result in nearly 6 million total job losses, including 2.6 million job losses for Americans.

Before deportations, an aging population and lower birth rates were already causing a shortage in labor-intensive jobs. As Trump’s efforts ramp up, restaurant, construction, landscaping, agriculture, and food processing businesses will experience increased labor shortages.

Trump needs to take off his blinders and consider what other right-wing populist leaders are doing to strengthen their countries through immigration. For example, in Italy, ultra conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni intends to issue 165,000 low-skilled work visas next year. Even Trump’s authoritarian pal, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, has recently embraced a guest worker scheme permitting 78,000 non-EU migrants to work in Hungary.

Four of the seven corporate leaders of America’s most profitable technology companies were born abroad. They entered America through the immigration programs that Trump is attacking. A smaller population and workforce will constrain our economy. It will devastate labor-intensive work forces including on farms (50%) and construction companies (25%). Trump’s push for net-zero migration is ill-conceived and bad for the economy.