WHAT WOULD A TRUMP PRESIDENCY LOOK LIKE ?

          Now that Donald Trump continues to surge in the polls, it is time to consider the unthinkable.  His candidacy may actually be with us for the long haul, through the primaries and beyond.  Democrats are certainly hoping this is the case.  With the Clinton e-mail debacle, the Trump campaign soaks up a great deal of media attention until all Clinton investigations are completed by the end of the year.  Democrats are delighted that Trump forces more mainstream republican candidates to spend valuable financial resources and political capital to appease conservatives, more than they would like this early in the primaries.

          But what if Trump is not an apparition?  What if by March or April, all of the most conservative candidates throw their support behind him and he wins the republican nomination? What if his continued appeal as an outsider garnishes enough democratic and independent support to pull off a general election upset? What would a Trump presidency look like?

           In listening to Trump’s pressers and stump speech several thoughts come to mind.  First, the “art of the deal” way of doing business does not prepare him for the infighting among cabinet members, partisan party politics or diplomacy.  He is now top dog at Trump Inc. with no one above him on the organization chart.  He is able to make decisions based on past experience and intuition, with little input and no committees.  This is the opposite of governing a complex nation in a pluralistic society.

          Second Trump does not understand the importance of being politically correct and in fact boasts about his lack of discernment.  As President, every word uttered by Trump would be dissected and analyzed. Shooting from the hip would not serve the Presidency or the nation well. His term in office would require a second full time press secretary to explain and walk back from his gaffes and confusing remarks.

          Lastly, Trump seems more adept at reacting to problems then in developing a vision for the future. He is able to forcefully explain what he is against, who is an idiot and where mistakes were made.  He is unable to articulate what a Trump presidency would look like or what it would accomplish.  Without a well defined game plan it would be difficult for him to hold together the political coalition that got him elected.

          In short, the very factors that are serving Trump well during these early primary months would be his undoing as President.  A warning to the growing number of Trump supporters.  Be careful what you wish (vote) for.

USE THE CITY’S BAD SUMMER AS A SPRINGBOARD FOR ACTION

         The City of Washington has not had a good summer.  The national media has focused on a small community’s inexplicable spike in heroin overdoses and increased crime.  The City Mission experienced a depilating fire.  A little known web site (roadsnacks.net) has captured our attention by crowning Washington the most redneck city in Pennsylvania.  This was based on the High School graduation rate, the number of dive bars, tobacco and gun stores, mobile home parks and Waffle House restaurants, among other factors. Even an attempt to “redd-up” a vacant lot and make it into an art filled Parklet backfired and was not to be.

         This is not the time for City residents to shurge their shoulders in defeat or for County residents to nod their heads in agreement with the City’s plight.  This is the time to stand up and take action.

         It is my humble opinion that lifelong residents of our community are myopic and cannot see the forest through the trees.  I have lived in the idyllic bedroom communities of Hunterdon County New Jersey, Swarthmore Pennsylvania and Fox Chapel Pennsylvania.  None provided the outstanding standard of living available in my adopted home town of East Washington Pennsylvania.  Let me count the ways.

         Housing costs and property taxes are so favorable, particularly within the City, that I shout the praises of Washington as a place to retire at every opportunity.  The benefits of a major metropolitan area and airport are minutes away.  Washington sits at the intersection of two major interstates which have attracted a minor league baseball franchise, Casino, first class wellness center, unlimited dining choices, traditional and discount shopping venues and a volunteer symphony.  An exceptional Hospital, thriving daily newspaper, small Liberal Arts College, beautiful park, farmers’ market and numerous places of worship are situated within the City’s borders.  Public transportation has been vastly improved.  The County as a whole is at the center of America’s new energy boom which will provide economic opportunity for decades to come.  Lastly, a community of hard working friendly people are employed in local government and in the retail outlets and professional offices.

         I can assure you that community leaders throughout the Country would love to have the opportunities available in our area with which to plan and revitalize a small American city.  There are certainly problems that must be addressed including widespread drug use and the crime it fosters, poverty, minority unemployment and a shrinking tax base.  So what is to be done?

         First, the fruits of economic development, evident throughout the County must be utilized in reviving the City.  It is simply not fair for the County to continue to use the City as a dumping ground for all of its unpleasant but necessary social services, governmental and low income needs, without making the renaissance of the City its first priority.

         Second, non City residents must recognize the benefits the City provides to the rest of the County and be willing to help pay for this privilege.  This can be accomplished through a County wide taxing scheme that does not go to the City’s general fund, but is earmarked only for City redevelopment.  The County must be an equal partner in choosing and implementing projects in return for raising the funds.

         Third, the County must begin a major campaign to attract small retailers and retired individuals looking for a place to settle apart from the expensive northeast corridor and even from the burden of Allegheny County taxes.  There are many who prefer to settle in a low cost area that offers a change of seasons with quick access to an interstate and an airport.  The City business district is an excellent location to build garden apartment style retirement housing, interspersed with specialty retail shops.

         Fourth, renovation plans must not leave behind our City’s citizens in most need of assistance.  While our small City school system is a dying breed in public education, it performs remarkably well given the number of low income and academically challenged students.  Give educators the resources they need to improve test scores, graduation results and post secondary school placement.

         Lastly, bring meaningful job training programs into the City to address the unemployment and underemployment in a County of plentiful jobs.  There is no reason that jobs related to the energy boom should not be filled with local well trained students as opposed to “out of towners”. Give energy companies tax credits to do the training and hiring.

         This is not the time for Washington Officials to become insular, defensive or to point fingers.  It is time to be bold and think outside the box.  It is their responsibility to do so and the rewards will be great. Thankfully resources are available to make this happen. While some new programs may fail, others will not and the City will become a better place.

         

THE DONALD HOLDS A TEA PARTY

         Many of us were wrong about the Tea Party for the same reasons we are now wrong about Donald Trump. While both initially appeared as simplistic distractions, dedicated to Obama baiting after the 2008 election, Trump and the Tea Party have evolved.  Dismissing their brand of conservative populism as a passing fad of misplaced anger and below the surface racism was a mistake. It is time to grudgingly acknowledge the staying power of a political movement that is not going away any time soon.

         The Tea Party web site now lists 15 non-negotiable core beliefs as the center of its platform.  At the top of the list are: “Illegal aliens are here illegally” and “pro domestic employment is indispensable.”  It is no coincidence that Trump’s stump speech makes these positions the focus of his campaign.

         Both progressives on the left and now, Tea Party members on the right, seek to replace the status quo.  The difference is that progressives are advocating for others, less fortunate, while tea party conservatives are advocating for themselves, with a personal all or nothing mentality.

          Progressives, to their credit and largely explaining their marginalization in modern politics, are pragmatic and willing to see the big picture.  When the debating is over, inside the voting booth, they will soften their positions and accept incremental change from moderate democrats over the republican alternative.  The number of progressives willing to follow Senator Bernie Sanders down the rabbit hole into an election disaster like the 1968 George McGovern campaign are few.

         On the other hand, Tea Party adherents demand representatives who will support their views, without compromise.  While their ideological take on the U.S. Constitution and Bill of Rights does not stand up to a fair and impartial critique, it feels right to them and that is all that matters.  The election of a moderate republican is ridiculed with the same contempt as the election of a moderate democrat.

         Once it is understood that the Tea Party views any politician willing to change a position to get elected or to compromise a position after elected as unacceptable, the love affair with Trump begins to make sense.  Today’s Tea Party would not support Ronald Reagan who made legendary concessions to Tip O’Neil, the democratic Speaker of the House, to responsibly run the government.  It will support Trump because he has remained consistent on oddball issues like Obama’s birth certificate and he attacks immigration, political correctness, the media and moderate Republicans without mercy.

         Donald Trump has staying power with the Tea Party because his firebrand pronouncements are delivered with unfiltered certainty.  For the Tea Party this is exactly the mouth piece they have longed for and Trump knows it.  He has discovered the one audience that thrives on his take no prisoners, shoot from the hip brand of politics.

         Over time, the Donald may not be able to develop a viable campaign organization or articulate policy positions acceptable to the Tea Party base. In this case, Senator Ted Cruz will be right behind him to pick up the Tea Party flag and carry on. No one but Trump could make Cruz appear to be the more mainstream candidate.

         A self centered populist political movement, threatening a tall fence and wielding a sledge hammer rather than an inclusive umbrella cannot win a national election.     But the Tea Party, with either Trump or Cruz as its candidate, will smash tables full of traditional china, in the primaries and beyond.

IT IS TIME TO STAND UP FOR OUR WORKING POOR

         I know a woman in her 50s who works at a local McDonalds along with several other middle aged employees.  She has been employed there for 8 years and makes $8.75 an hour.  Several weeks ago she called me in tears asking for advice.  She never misses work and was faced with a crisis when her landlord decided to empty the building of his month to month tenants and sell the property.  She was afraid that if she left her rented “room” and went to work she would be locked out and forfeit her possessions.

         There is a cultural in Washington of the working poor that gets little attention from the rest of us.  They are employed as dishwashers at W&J, wait staff at the chain restaurants, stockers at Shop & Save and clerks at Good Will.  Out of sight, out of mind, they are washing our windows, cleaning our gutters, mowing our lawns, watching our young children in child care and changing bed pans at the hospital and nursing homes.

          Many have physical and/or mental impediments that limit their work capabilities, without qualifying them for SSI or SSD.  Others are single parents unable to afford higher education or trade school.  For almost all the working poor every dollar in income is accounted for before the next paycheck arrives.  With access to high interest credit cards and pay day lending services, many fall into debt.

         Those of us with liberal views often ask ourselves: why doesn’t this permanent underclass, which according to the Center for Poverty Research total an estimated 11 million Americans across the country, rise up and demand better wages?  Why aren’t they marching and protesting for more of the cradle to grave benefits that are prevalent in Europe?  Why don’t they insist that the wealthy pay more in taxes?

         Upon reflection and research, several answers spring to the surface.  First, unlike the days of labor organization in the late 19^th and early 20^th century, when farmers and factory workers fought for economic and social reform, today’s working poor are more isolated, politically apathetic, and have little thought for the future beyond the next paycheck.  Transportation and unexpected expenses take precedence over activisim.  Second, extended families to provide assistance and encouragement are nonexistent.  Third, despite the hardships and unlike their European counterparts, many are of the view that anyone can win the American lottery and step up to a life of wealth and leisure with a bit of luck and elbow grease.

         I am convinced that the working poor, who make up only 23% of all the people classified as poor in this country, are the true forgotten Americans. The inequality debate is really about them. They face economic and social hardships to remain employed and raise a family that are difficult for the rest of us to imagine.

          That is why I will continue to advocate for a living wage and increased benefits for this politically underserved population.  The working poor have a miniscule safety net and no time or resources to fight back on their own.

        

          

HOPE NOT DISGRACE

         With the sentencing of former Washington County judge Paul Pozonsky, many citizens will give a collective sigh of relief.  It is finally over. Of course there will be debate over the length and type of incarceration and whether the judge was impaired while on the bench, but now the courthouse can return to a semblance of normalcy.

         For me and many others in the recovery community the Pozonsky story is just beginning. Those of us who have suffered through the embarrassment, the loss of the work we loved, the loss of our family’s trust and support, divorce, the loss of income and yes even incarceration, know all too well what Mr. Pozonsky is going through.  We have experienced the horror of alcohol and drug addiction sending us to the bottom of the longest chute in life’s never ending game of chutes and ladders.  The next ladder often looked impossible to climb.

         For those of us in recovery, the use of alcohol and drugs often  began as a social attitude adjustment, moved on to a coping mechanism and ended in a train wreck as an uncontrollable urge to obtain and consume our drug of choice.  Our bodies physically mutated as the addiction progressed.  There is no changing a pickle back into a cucumber.  The only cure is to not use the very substance that our physical and subconscious minds cried out for as the answer to all our problems.

         Those of us who have been on the journey of recovery see Mr. Pozonsky as an example of hope, not of disgrace.  Twelve step programs will welcome him with open arms.  Not only has he earned his way into the recovery fellowships, his story will reinforce the message that addiction affects all professions and segments of society.  His struggle for sobriety will help many others in their struggle.  Eventually, Mr Pozonsky will come to know what many of us have witnessed.  Our greatest failures and consequences, were actually our greatest blessings because these crash and burn events lead us to a life of sobriety. 

         The recovery journey is not without setbacks and disappointments.  For those who endure, there is a life on the other side of the wreckage, a good life.  I hope that Mr. Pozonsky endures and finds it.

        

         

IT IS TIME FOR SOUTHPOINTE TO RETURN TO EARTH

         Southpointe did not have a good week following the Independence Day holiday weekend.  This celestial portion of Washington County normally goes about its business of making money and ignoring the rest of us.  However last Monday morning the Wall Street Journal featured a front page piece of investigative reporting that revealed apparent incestuous business practices between one of Southpointe’s principal founders, Rodney Piatt and one of its largest tenants, the pharmaceutical company, Mylan NV.

          A large real estate transaction and other activities were not disclosed to shareholders.  Mr. Piatt wears many hats in and around Southpointe I and II including primary developer, owner of the Southpointe Golf Course and Vice Chairman, Independent Director at Mylan.  While the land deal at Southpointe II for the new Mylan headquarters may not have provided a financial windfall for Mr. Piatt, it certainly did not pass the smell test for good corporate governance.

         The story had legs and made its way onto the front page of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette and Pittsburgh Tribune on Tuesday and onto the front page of the Observer Reporter last Wednesday. Just as this story was dying down, the OR came back on Sunday with a five column front page story on the economic impact of Southpointe. 

         While it cannot be denied that both phases of Southpointe have sparked economic development, not everyone is happy.  There is a sense that older communities in Washington County are crumbling, while Southpointe receives all the perks.  Moreover, Southpointe appears to benefit Corporations and high society, leaving the rest of us to admire from afar.

         For those who have seen the movie Elysium, Southpointe reminds me of this out of reach paradise.  The movie depicts a large “garden of Eden” space station that orbits above the planet.  Elysium is the home of the wealthy and the well connected. The 99% left behind on mother earth are forced into crime and poverty with little chance for advancement and no cure for disease.  The space taxis do not run from earth to Elysium.

         The differences in the wealth and privilege of Southpointe and the economic challenges in the rest of the County are certainly striking.  I would like to offer a solution to ease the guilt of the real estate developers, 300 business entities, 9,000 employees and numerous residents who live there.

          Earmark a parcel of land at Southpointe for a Washington County Cultural Center.  Build a home for the Washington Symphony Orchestra, the community choirs and the County plays and musical productions.  Leave room for a satellite City Mission facility or drug and alcohol rehab.  With such projects, Southpointe would return to earth and feel like a sharing partner with the County, not an over the moon Elysium.

POLITICAL ORDER AND POLITICAL DECAY

          The Observer Reporter opinion page has recently plunged into the national debate over whether President Obama is the victim or the aggressor when it comes to obstructionism.  Among Tea Party cries for the need to: “take back our country”, is a similar hotly contested topic:  whether the President has abused his constitutional powers on the one hand or has been hamstrung by Congress on the other.

          Now we have added more fuel for the fire, following the Supreme Court decisions upholding the Affordable Care Act and striking down State objections to gay marriage. Our highest court is under attack for ignoring its constitutional role.  Conservatives are lamenting that the court has tossed aside its duties as umpire and picked up a bat to hit home runs for leftist causes.

         All of my instincts want me to jump into this ideological free-for-all and send out my own salvo of rhetoric.  Instead, I will take a deep breath, stand back, keep my emotions in check and take a more leveled approach.  I will  start from the premise that a shallow debate that fist pounds the constitution and screams for justice every time a decision goes against a particular ideology or interest group, is not helpful. After all, democracy based on pluralism is not a zero sum game.  Politics by definition is the art of compromise.  The Constitution is similar to the world’s holy books in that its words and the founders’ intent can be interpreted to fit any number of positions.

         Secondly, my approach will assume that indeed something is rotten in the state of Denmark and that American democracy requires the attention of those with “eyes wide open”, conservatives and liberals alike.  My analysis will not be original.  Francis Fukuyama, the Stanford Professor and leading political scientist on political order and political decay has already done the heavy lifting.  His recent two book opus on this subject will be a lode star on the subject for decades to come.  Of special interest for this discussion is his essay adapted from book two: America in Decay, The Sources of Political Dysfunction (foreignaffairs.com August 18, 2014.)

          While Mr. Fukuyama is a conservative by nature, I find little to argue with, when he summarizes the chronic institutional problems facing American democracy, including the following:

·      Political decay can afflict any type of political system, authoritarian or democratic.

·      A combination of intellectual rigidity and the power of entrenched political actors is now preventing our political institutions from being reformed.

·      Economic winners seek to convert their wealth into unequal political influence.

·      While interest groups have lost their ability to corrupt legislators through bribery, they continue to exercise influence way out of proportion to their place in society.

·       Congress has fallen to such low levels of popularity because tea party republicans and liberal democrats alike believe interest groups are exercising undue political influence.

·      American democracy does not permit the elected executive branch to hash out conflicts in regulatory or social policy, the norm in parliamentary style western governments.

·      The Federal Court system, rather than a check and balance within government has evolved into a system that expands the regulatory and social landscape

·       In the United States, these regulatory and social battles are fought through formal litigation, with enormous costs, inefficiencies and confusion.

·      The U.S. constitution protects individual liberties through a complex system of checks and balances that were deliberately designed by the founders to constrain the power of the state. 

·      Unfortunately, because of redundancy between Federal branches of government and between State and Federal agencies, there is lack of accountability and different parts of government are easily able to block one another.

·      American democracy is stuck in a “vetocracy” where collective action is almost impossible and nothing gets done.

·      The decay of American politics will continue until some external shock comes along to catalyze a true reform coalition and galvanize it into action.

          While the above does not totally capture the Fukuyama thesis, it captures the essence.  There will be those who disagree with some of his conclusions.  The debate he inspires is impossible to ignore.

           The problems facing our American constitutional republic are deep and complicated. Chastising individual actors, including the President, for their actions or failure to act will not address the issues and in fact will reinforce the problem.  The partisan cry to “take back our country”, when the other party is in the White House, must be replaced with a bi-partisan resolve to repair our democratic political system for the generations to come.

           As clearly chronicled by Mr. Fukuyama in his two books, many robust societies have not survived political dysfunction.  He has thrown down the gauntlet and it is up to the clear minded and the wise, with no axe to grind, to find a solution.