GREED AND FEAR IN THE GAS RUSH

With the possible exception of quantum physics and ice cream, I have come to believe that most of our world can be explained through the application of greed and fear.  There are many euphemisms that attempt to soften this reality.  The American social contract is based on the greed of economic success balanced by the fear of obeying the law.  Religions substitute gratitude for greed and the wrath of higher powers for fear.  Conservatives use capitalism for greed and socialism for fear; liberals: social leveling and the industrial, financial complex.  In the end, when the onion is peeled, it all comes down to wanting more and avoiding the taking away of what we, as individuals, find valuable.

 Stock market sages understand the dynamic.  If you study how greed and fear motivate people, you can always buy low and sell high.  It is also the basic principle of every totalitarian regime that has ever established a dictatorship.  Promise a majority of the people economic prosperity and have them fear the tribe or religion or country across the river.  The truth is that understanding greed and fear gives you power over others.

Nothing highlights human nature’s reliance on greed and fear like a good old fashion gold rush.  Make no mistake Washington County and the Marcellus shale belt, are in the middle of such an event. Here, the greed is simple to define.  Fortunes are made at the stroke of a pen. Drillers provide jobs, revenue and instant cash for access to public parks and recreation areas.  Economic booms are good for business and guarantee reelections

Fear is also everywhere, once we look behind the drillers’ billboards and commercials, telling us they are our benevolent friends:  “Sign now or be left behind.”  “Pass that regulation and we will sue and/or take our business to the next county or the next State.”  On the other side of the equation: “The science on fracking is incomplete.”  “Our water table is in danger.”  “The drillers will be gone and our beautiful County a wasteland.”

The greed and fear associated with whether to drill, is pitting individuals against families, families against towns, municipalities against counties, counties against the State, and State against State.  The drilling industry loves Pennsylvania.  To use a bad pun, a fractured political system is good for fracking.  The industry is running into reasonable checks and balances in smaller homogeneous States like New Jersey and Maryland. These Sates are more than happy to let Pennsylvania be the guinea pig so that all the problems are not repeated in their own backyards.

The present system in Pennsylvania favors the drillers.  They understand greed and fear.  The business model is to divide and conquer.  Like any good stock trader or dictator, this gives them power to achieve their goals. Exxon used the same formulae when fear and greed ran the oil industry.  Desert Bedouins understood the fear and greed game better than the oil men.  They have been playing it for centuries.  They formed OPEC and made the oil companies their employees, not their masters.

With all the recent talk about regionalization of economic, social and political concerns (the Power of 32 initiative among others) you would think that forming a Marcellus Shale Cartel that cuts across state lines would be a no brainer.  It would be the only game in town for the drillers.  They would have to come to the Cartel with hat in hand.  All environmental, tax and regulatory concerns could be vetted before the action starts. Public trust funds could be set up to repair infrastructure and address unforeseen pollution issues.

Such a plan would undoubtedly bring to the surface the greed and fear that public officials have in relinquishing local power.  My bet is that if Bedouin Chiefs that have fought each other for centuries could do it, so could our own political leaders.

A SNAPSHOT OF SKEWED VALUES

When I stand back and take stock of our political culture it often appears counter intuitive and irrational.  Let’s start with conservative Americans who need accessible education, healthcare and employment. Why would they support the tea party and rant against taxes and government programs which seek to provide these needed benefits?  On the other end of the spectrum, unionists,  members of academe and the children of our elite, sprinkled with old sixties protesters and young anarchists, camp out on Wall Street to protest the bailing out of banks.  In effect the “occupy wall street” crowd is supporting the very same tea party members who have suffered the most from the non recovery. Yet these conservatives want to leave the bankers unregulated and unscathed. 

Billionaires ask to have their taxes raised and are finding ways to give away their wealth.    Conservatives of modest means ask to have the taxes of the wealthy remain the same or lowered.  The tea party middle class have become our Herbert Hover libertarians.  The wealthy and the children of the last “me generation” are the new social democrats.

President Obama is a liberal democrat compelled to conduct his presidency as a fiscal moderate because of the state of the economy and the perceived need to move to the right for his reelection.  This is to capture more of the ground vacated by moderate republican candidates.  Mitt Romney is a moderate republican candidate who has made a Faustian bargain to become president. He has disavowed his long held policy positions.  This permits him to make a primary run as a conservative tea party libertarian in order to win his party’s nomination.  At another time and place Mr. Romney could easily serve on the President’s cabinet.

As an example of our social culture also gone whacky, we have the Steve Jobs phenomena.  Mr. Jobs was a genius at producing consumer products that by his own admission, no one knew they needed until he produced them.  His consumer consumption company is bigger than Exxon but employs very few Americans.  He was not a particularly nice man, but knew how to design and market millions of computers, music players, mobile phones and tablets.

Following his death, more media has been dedicated to Mr. Jobs life and times than any individual I can remember.  My entire issue of Business Week and much of Time magazine was dedicated to Mr. Jobs.  I learned nothing about the euro crisis and a lot about his volatile temper and that he considered taking LSD one of the most important decisions of his life.

Unfortunately lives well lived that I do care about receive almost no attention from the media.  Tony Judt was such an individual.  When he died in his early sixties from Lou Gehrig’s disease in August of 2010, the world blinked and carried on.  A politically engaged but independent and critical intellectual, Mr. Judt cared about people and about learning from history to make the world a better place. My bet is that years from now, his writings will carry more weight than the iphone.

Our political and social culture says a great deal about who we are as a people. When did our political leaders stop caring about what they believe and only about getting elected?  What’s wrong with Obama being a one term “progressive values” president or Romney running in the moderate republican tradition?   When did we stop caring about educating our children so they could compete on a level playing field as an essential part of the American dream?  How did our empathy for the less fortunate shift to the prevailing need to accumulate things, including the newest electronic toys?  Why should our culture worship Steven Jobs?

 Sometimes I cannot tell whether it is simply the media tail wagging the public dog, deciding what we think and read, or whether our values really are skewed.  Maybe it’s a bit of both.

REPUBLICANS ARE TOO CLEVER FOR THEIR OWN (AND OUR) GOOD

Over the next year, meaningful job creation does not lie within the power of Washington to fix. On the other hand, stemming the tide of additional job destruction does. Through the next presidential election, Obama’s jobs proposals, if passed, would have minimal effect on the unemployment rate.  This economy and its financial system are too large and too sick.  Time takes time, to unwind the credit and housing bubbles and heal the massive disruptions that have taken place.  

Conversely, the President’s proposals would provide a backstop against further job destruction, mostly in the state and local public sectors.  It would keep us from a double-dip recession.  It would permit those who remain employed to unwind their debt and provide some level of spending and demand for goods and services.

Conservatives may revel in the fact that their elected representatives are giving the President no rope to implement his jobs plan.  My view is that if conservatives were sure of their fiscal and monetary policy positions they would give Obama at least half the rope he is asking for, kicking and screaming to be sure, and let him hang his presidency.  If a second recession is avoided they can continue to hammer Obama with the high unemployment rate.  If the plan fails and we re-enter recession the Obama reelection would be dead on arrival.

This “I told you so” and “win-win” scenario for republicans will not happen because they want the economy to get worse and will take no bi-partisan action of any kind.  Apparently they believe if millions more must lose their jobs, so be it.  The irony is that without permitting a jobs plan republicans have bought responsibility for the inevitable job destruction and probable recession that will follow.

MY TAKE ON WASHINGTON PROTHONOTARY, DA & JUDICIAL ELECTIONS

The upcoming Washington County general election has a profound effect on my profession as an attorney.  The Prothonotary’s office because of its obscure name is the stuff of bad jokes and funny political cartoons.  Perhaps one out of 25 voters can tell you where to find the office or explain what it does.  Yet, in the legal community, this office is the procedural hub for every civil document we prepare and file.  Lawyers need a Prothonotary’s Office that is accessible, informative, friendly and professional.  In my experience, Washington County has one of the best in Southwestern Pennsylvania, under the auspices of Phyllis Matheny.  The office certainly does not require new leadership from a career politician looking to upgrade his take from the public watering hole or to advance his political standing.

            The District Attorney’s office, on the other hand, does require the proverbial “rearranging of the furniture.”  The office needs a stable long term professional DA, with extensive knowledge of criminal law and administration, who is not part of the existing regime.  The new DA must look under every rock (and desk) to determine the most effective and efficient way to run the office.  The candidate who deserves your support must keep the office transparent, free from political decision making and provide the public with dedication to “best practices” not “doing it the old way.”  I believe that David Dicarlo is the candidate who will bring sunlight and a broom to the office of District Attorney.

Lastly, is the race for Judge, Court of Common Pleas. Much of my practice is in family law.  My bias is for the candidate with a strong background in domestic relations law.  More citizens come into contact with the court through family and juvenile cases than any other area.  As the former Administrator of the Allegheny County Family Court, I would like to see a newly elected judge willing to make a career managing family law cases.  I believe that Gary Gillman is such a candidate.  He has the knowledge and energy to put programs in place in family court that will be well received by lawyers and the public.  He has the commitment to stay in family court to make sure there is consistency and longevity.

While I do not serve on the committees of any of the above candidates, I have contributed to their campaigns. No need to take my word on any of the above.  Simply ask any lawyer who practices in Washington County.  After all, the court house is where we work and we really do want the best for all of us.

THE POST LABOR DAY ECONOMY

Labor Day is behind us, the President’s employment speech is Thursday and electioneering is everywhere.  For anyone who has followed the excellent political and economic commentary over the long holiday weekend, three infallible points have emerged.

            First, the path for Obama to reelection is to improve the economy by lowering unemployment and returning the limping middle class to some semblance of health, in a world where easy credit and inflated housing no longer exist.  Conversely, those republicans focused only on politics rather than recovery, believe they cannot win in 2012 unless the President’s rescue mission is defeated and the middle class is placed on life support over the next 12 months.

            The second point is that, in the short run, the country cannot pursue immediate federal austerity measures through deficit reduction and expect to achieve any job creation.  Cutting off the limping unemployed worker’s leg is the quickest path to life support rather than full employment. Moreover, deficit surgery now, will guarantee that the middle class remains disabled and a ward of the government for years to come.

            The last point is that there is a middle road, where both political parties can act responsibly in the face of economic crisis and take the health of the middle class off the operating table.  The President and democrats must agree to long term deficit reduction efforts that are not smoke and mirrors.  Further, to kick start the economy, business, industrial and environmental regulations must be muted or deferred until we are running on all cylinders.  Any business activity that is likely to create jobs must be offered a tax break.

            For their part, Republicans must agree to short term federal spending for any program that will allow the middle class to keep buying goods and services on the one hand while creating jobs on the other.  They must agree to an immediate tax on the income, capital gains and inheritances of the wealthy.  Republicans will find that the sick and suffering 95% of Americans will thank them for calling on the 5% who hold most of the wealth, to contribute their fair share.  Moreover, the wealthy realize more than anyone that a rising tide lifts all boats and that this economy is threatening to beach their yachts.

            In this economic crisis, the United States has advantages and paths to recovery not available to other developed countries.  All we need is the political will to use them.

THE STATE OF THE UNION

In the coming months, a number of our citizens who are not ideologues will take the time to reflect on their body politic over the past 2 ½ years.  These reflective voters, also known as rational readers, practical thinkers, centralists and Independents, will cancel out the political noise from progressives who expect more socialism from their President and tea party conservatives who want more individual liberty.  Those who do their homework and examine the record with an open mind will discover something encouraging about the state of the union.

They will find that since president Obama took office, our nation has made significant progress on domestic issues.  The Supreme Court has welcomed two new constitutional scholars who will hold the high ground against the Court’s conservative cabal for the next half century. The President’s economic policy has permitted the credit bubble to unwind in a measured fashion, while avoiding a second great depression. (As a stark contrast, austerity measures and bank band aids are crumbling the EU, and causing riots in Britain) The military, industrial and financial complex has been reined in by responsible cabinet members, regulation and legislation. Notwithstanding lagging revenue and high unemployment, our social obligations to students, the disabled, and the elderly have not been thrown under the bus and universal health care is a reality.

On the political front, Obama’s move from transformative candidate to transactional president has been marked by negotiation and compromise rather than ideological rants.  In this regard he reminds me of Regan and Clinton, who each in their own way knew it was their duty to serve all the people, not their ideological base.  This is not to say that the President’s election has not been transformative.  The pride of Afro Americans and other minorities is palatable.  Recognition of gay rights has exploded.  The youth of the world view the United States with its urbane President in a new and positive light.

On International policy, Obama’s approach differs from the previous neo cons in significant respects.  The President is carefully moving the country away from the war on terror, toward a domestic terror policy, where it belongs.  His administration knows that the Muslim kinship cultures of Southeast Asia and North Africa are not prepared to follow a western model to modernity and democracy.  Better to euthanize Al Qaeda, prepare a level playing field and get out of the way.  The president has treated other western nations with respect, while insisting that they contribute their fair share in policing the world’s trouble spots.

One could easily argue that most of the past 2 ½ years have centered on unwinding the mistakes of the previous administration in the wake of tumultuous new problems.  Unfortunately the former Bush mistakes have exasperated the new problems.  A careful analysis will show that the question to ask ourselves is not “how much worse off are we” but rather “where would we be, but for the actions taken.”  In the face of such an economic and international political tsunami, a defensive step backward is always better than drowning in the backwater.