ELECTIONS MATTER

Two issues have dominated political journalism since the election of Donald Trump. First, how was Trump and the Republican party able to cobble together a victory in 2016?  Second, will our democratic processes and institutions survive his presidency?  By my count over 25 books have been penned to address these issues.  In addition, hundreds of essays and articles have been written by journalists weighing in with their own take on the election and its aftermath.

The books and articles that discuss the election have covered the effects of social media on the election; the lower than expected voter turnout in urban areas with Obama off the ballet; Russian interference influencing the vote count; Democrats ignoring the issues important to the working class in the rust belt; and the botched FBI investigations. 

Those books and articles that discuss the functioning of the Trump presidency over the past two years have critiqued an administration that is dedicated to deconstructing the “rules based” international order in foreign policy. Other studies have researched how the White House bases domestic policy on anti-immigration; on protectionism; on lower taxes and on fewer regulations.  Some authors have written detailed analyses explaining Trump’s support for authoritarian leaders abroad and for nativist policies at home and its effect on our democratic institutions.  Others have chronicled the dysfunction and turnover within the White House itself.

 Most recently the acclaimed writer Michael Lewis has released a deep dive well researched study that asks, who is really running the government? (The Fifth Risk) Rather than address Trump’s character defects, Lewis centers on the President’s ignorance on what the federal bureaucracy is and how it works.  Lewis exposes the dangers in ignoring the complexities of federal agencies and the need for leadership from the White House in supporting them.

All of these investigative works that uncover the limitations and degradations of the Trump presidency are illuminating and necessary, but it is time to flip the switch and to concentrate on the upcoming mid-term elections.  Elections matter and can change the future. Placing Democrats in House and Senate seats around the country is the only path that guarantees Trump will be investigated for his past actions and challenged on his new initiatives.  It is time to stop reading and complaining and to place all efforts into getting Democrats elected. Time to stop agonizing and to start organizing.

After the unexpected results in the 2016 presidential election, the Democratic “blue wave” that is predicted for the 2018 mid-term elections and the belief that Democrats will capture the House of Representatives leaves me somewhat skeptical. First, I am convinced that the 84% of registered Republicans who approve of Trump are not going to change their preference in the mid-term elections and unless there is a sea change not in 2020.  Moreover, even dissatisfied Republicans may stick with the party of their President who has kept most of his campaign promises and who is taking credit for a booming economy.

Second, while the numbers of Democratic voters in the primaries and the new voter registrations are encouraging, the Republican base tends to show up with greater frequency in off year elections. Third, I do not trust polls in the age of Trump when voters are hesitant to name their preferences.  Fourth, Trump is capable in springing an “October surprise” on the electorate in order to the hold the House of Representatives in Republican hands.

I believe that for Democrats to win the House and to have a chance in flipping the Senate, the national and state Democratic Parties must show the type of organization over these last several weeks that is typical in presidential elections.  This would include rallies in vulnerable districts headlined with well-known national figures.  Advertising funds should not be spared for those candidates who are running for the first time and who present new faces to the voting public.  The election day get out the vote effort should take nothing for granted.  The Democratic overconfidence that was on full display during the 2016 Presidential race must not take hold during the mid-terms.

Normally issues would define an election, including the upcoming House and Senate races.  But Trump has defined this election cycle and placing checks and balances on his abuses is the overriding concern.  If a democratic blue wave is successful, a base will be in place for the 2020 presidential contest when a full slate of issues can be presented to the electorate.

 Voters will then have a real choice: to reelect a demagogue who uses the twin evils of race and tribe to placate the millions of disgruntled Americans who have fallen behind; or to choose a candidate and a party dedicated to building an equitable and just society for all Americans, based on real progress rather than fear.