THE NEW CUBAN REVOLUTION

Part I of my commentary on Cuba concerned the Cuban people and their adaptation to socialism following the 1959 revolution. I will now review what our group from the Washington County Bar Association learned, concerning recent political events and the state of Cuban-American relations, on our recent trip to the island.

Other than the Miami Newspapers and the Latin American press, there has been little reporting on the significant changes that are taking place politically in Cuba.  With the notable exception of South Florida, Americans are not aware that a new Cuban Revolution is in full swing, one that is characterized by new leadership and a new constitution rather than by bullets.

For the first time since 1959, a man not named Castro is the head of state in Cuba. Effective in April 2018, Miguel Diaz-Canel, became Prime Minister. The previous head of state, Raul Castro, brother of former leader, Fidel Castro, remains First Secretary of the Communist Party and Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Armed Forces.  Diaz-Canel is scheduled to replace Castro as head of the Communist Party in 2021. This represents a clearly non-dynastic form of succession for the Communist Party as well as the Republic of Cuba.

With this background in place, the next phase of the revolution is underway with a new comprehensive constitution. A constitutional referendum is scheduled for February 24, 2019 following much debate and many amendments. Voters will be asked to approve the draft passed by the National Assembly in July 2018.  The referendum is expected to pass, with a large majority of Cubans casting ballots (86% of voters participated in the last general election) following an intense period of discussion, education and local media exposure. Cuban exiles were invited to participate in the discussions leading up to the final draft. In traveling around Havana, we saw many bill boards dedicated to explaining the referendum.

The new Constitution calls for the recognition of private property and the creation of a freer market, although it does not go as far as China or Viet Nam in establishing a market based economy.  Even before the referendum, private labor had expanded to 30% of the available jobs. Now, 200 legal forms of private employment will be recognized, mostly in the agricultural, restaurant and tourist trades. We saw firsthand that Cubans entering the private sector were among the wealthiest in Havana.  Private homes were doing double duty as restaurants and art galleries.  Tour guides were able to afford homes and vehicles well beyond the reach of the average Cuban.

The Constitution creates two consecutive five-year term limits imposed on the office of President.  There are provisions that ban discrimination and some general language that would seem to permit same-sex marriage.  There is a restoration of a “presumption of innocence” in the justice system.  A major reform calls for decentralization of decision making by allowing regional and local levels of government to discuss their problems, develop their own resources and to implement solutions.

To get to the heart of the new constitution one must carefully consider Article I as well as the reforms that were not introduced.  Article I, which sounds like it was written with Thomas Jefferson in mind calls for: “A socialist state based on the rule of law, democratic…aimed at the employment of political freedom, equity, justice and social equality…welfare and individual and collective prosperity.” But the devil is in the details.  Despite the new constitution Cuba will remain an authoritarian state with the communist party and military still firmly in control of the political apparatus and major institutions.

 While in the United States we move ever so slowly toward more “collective prosperity” with changes to health care and inequality, Cuba does the opposite, moving at a snail’s pace toward “individual prosperity”.  The age old democratic debate between the principles of liberty versus those of equality plays out in two countries 90 miles apart.

In light of these transformative political changes, what is the state of Cuban-U.S. relations?  One would think that our foreign policy would be to encourage these reforms and to reward Cuba by finally lifting the crippling embargo, that has caused untold suffering to the Cuban people for years.  This assessment would be wrong.

 The Obama administration recognized that Cuba was taking steps to become less authoritarian and no longer posed a threat to America by exporting communism to Latin America.  At the end of his second term Obama took the necessary steps to re-establish diplomatic relations and to ease the embargo.  When President Trump assumed office he immediately reversed course and again placed relations on a belligerent footing.  This was despite the fact that during the presidential campaign, the Trump business interests actively pursued the building of a hotel in the resort area of Cuba.

Some observers would attribute Trump’s actions to a simple knee jerk reaction toward any foreign policy initiative formulated by Obama. Others have focused on a more sinister political motivation based on the politics of South Florida. Marco Rubio and the politically powerful group of wealthy Cubans who defend the United States embargo against Cuba can deliver a great deal of money and enough votes to keep Florida in the Republican fold. Trump needed Florida to win the presidency in 2016 and will need Rubio’s support again in 2020.

It seems obvious to most observers of recent events in Cuba that tourism, foreign investment, and fewer restrictions would do more to encourage further change than a seventh decade of embargo.  Unlike our ally, Saudi Arabia, the Cuban government does not execute political critics.  Our group’s discussions with Cuban intellectuals revealed that politics are openly discussed and that a great deal of political dissent is tolerated.

A recent poll conducted by the Miami press (see Sun-Sentinel, February 1, 2019) shows that as fewer Cubans in South Florida are actually born in Cuba, attitudes are changing. Cuba came in dead last as the social issue Cuban-Americans care most about in elections.  Overall support for the embargo has declined significantly over time with 51% now in favor versus 78% in 1997. 83% of Cuban Americans now believe that the embargo has not worked at all or not worked very well.

Young Cuban voters are overwhelmingly against the embargo. The diplomatic relations resumed by President Obama at the end of his administration were supported by 77% of Cubans born in America.

With this degree of sea change, it is difficult to imagine that the old school conservative Cuban “hate machine” against Cuban socialism can hold together its grip on Miami politics much longer. Once Cuban Americans decide that freely visiting their homeland and removing the economic hardships for the average Cuban are more important than waiting for a regime change that will never happen, Cuban-U.S. relations will permanently open up. 

America will learn to live with its small socialist neighbor, as it has with other illiberal regimes around the world.  The trade and investment opportunities available in Cuba will far outweigh the continuation of an ideological conflict that most Americans do not remember, or care much about.