TRUMPISM IS HERE TO STAY

 

Democratic strategists were wrong to assume that large numbers of voters would turn away from Trump in the 2020 election. Forty eight per cent of the electorate remains firmly behind the president. Trump’s brand of divisive politics, and his decision to ignore the greatest health threat to the country in 100 years did not prevent either his base or an additional four million new voters from producing an enthusiastic turnout. Trump’s message of white nationalism, pro-life evangelism, anti-socialism and anti-immigration lost no significant support over the course of four turbulent years in the White House.

Political scientists, sociologists, psychologists and historians have written dozens of books attempting to explain the Trump phenomena. In my view, few if any have gotten it right.  Of one thing I am certain, Trumpism will continue to play a role in American politics for years to come. My impressions of the man, the Republican Party and his supporters are the basis of this commentary.

If Trump holds true to form, he will turn his defeat into a platform of grievance and conspiracy in order to control the Republican Party, including an attempt to regain the presidency in four years.  He will claim through thousands of tweets that he never lost the election.  When he spoke on election night about the results being “a fraud on the American public”, he was addressing only his own voters. 

Remarkably, 70% of Republicans believe there was voting fraud despite the absence of any evidence.  This is but another example of the many topics where Trump has painted for his supporters a wide landscape of fear and paranoia based on outright lies.

Trump made no attempt to develop policy positions for his 2020 campaign.  To do so would be to admit that there were competing important issues for voters to consider. He wanted the election to be about him alone. He orchestrated the bluster and unmasked swagger of a leader who could defy death from the pandemic and return from the hospital stronger than ever.  This is not a man who will go quietly into the night.

The Republican Party is in an interesting dilemma.  Because of Trump’s wide ranging support, the Party will likely keep control of the Senate and has increased its number in the House. There is no reason for elected Republicans to abandon Trumpism.  There are many reasons for them to double down.

The last two presidential campaigns have unveiled astonishing factors concerning the electorate.  The increase in younger, brown and black demographics has not provided Democrats with the “over-the-moon” advantage that was anticipated.  Trump’s illiberal nativism has shown appeal across the political spectrum.

The last two elections have taught the Republican Party that it does not need to be the majority Party in order to stay in power.  Going forward the key to victory will be a combination of: 1) the Electoral College, 2) imbalances in the Senate because of the number of red states, 3) control of red statehouses with the ability to gerrymander congressional districts, 4) voter suppression and 5) control of the federal judiciary including the Supreme Court.

The most fascinating component of Trumpism is the voters who continue to support him. For four years, detractors dwelled on Trumps comments and on his personality which were considered well outside the limits of acceptable behavior. The takeaway of supporters was very different.  They saw a president who was tough, spoke his mind and stood up for them.

I have listened and read hundreds of comments by Trump supporters and reached several conclusions.  First, any single issue such as abortion, fracking, climate change, China and even mask wearing was enough to stay with or come to Trump. Second, many Americans remain distrustful of the federal bureaucracy often seen as an infringement on their liberty.  This is particularly true of small business owners who are struggling to remain viable during the pandemic and who fear increased regulations under the Democrats. 

Third, rural voters simply do not see the world through the same lens as urban voters. There is no diversity to consider where everyone is white in the mid-west farm country or where everyone is brown in southern Texas. Climate change and the Supreme Court are off their radar. They want food on the table with no health directives that impede their ability to work. Government experts of every persuasion from foreign policy to public health are viewed with the same distrust as the politicians who hired them.

Fourth, Fox News and conservative social media provide a powerful message of anti-Democratic Party propoganda that is impossible for rural America to avoid. Bogus claims of the Democratic Party’s turn toward socialism, leftist rioters and made-up attacks against religion are enough to keep Trump voters in line.

After the inauguration, Democrats will not be able to claim victory from a four-year nightmare or the return to the “American dream.”  At most the election was a wakeup call to the meaning of Trumpism and a clearer understanding of the threat it imposes to our polity.

The threat is an ironic one. Our president is a political opportunist, driven only by his own interests. He is not an ideologue.  Nevertheless, he has entrenched an illiberal, authoritarian culture into our democracy that is supported by almost half the electorate. Trumpism will not be easily uprooted when he leaves office.