THE BALTICS: FROM TOURISM TO TRAGEDY

In August of 2019, my spouse and I took a cruise that encircled the Baltic Sea. We were given the opportunity to meet citizens from seven different countries, with each nation speaking a different language. Everyone we met was enjoying life to its fullest (except, perhaps, the dour Russians of St. Petersburg) and happy to have American travelers visiting their shores.

No one could have predicted that two years of worldwide pandemic followed by the most destructive land war in Europe since WWII were on the horizon. The Baltics we witnessed in 2019 will never be the same politically or economically. It will be difficult for its citizens ever again to experience the same carefree quality of life.

This commentary will not focus on Ukraine, where the daily battle reports and Russian atrocities are well documented by the media. Instead, the emphasis will be on the Baltic countries that are geographically proximate to Ukraine. While none of these nations is directly involved in the hostilities, many lives have been impacted.  Moreover, the Baltic region is destined to be an area of instability and uncertainty for decades to come.

The countries surrounding the Baltic Sea include Sweden, Finland, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany and Denmark. Finland, Estonia and Latvia share long borders with Russia. Lithuania and Poland are bordered by Belarus, a committed Russian ally.

The Eastern Baltic countries situate between Germany and Russia have been labeled the “killing fields” because of events both before and during the Second World War. There remains a strong memory of territories first divided by treaty and later trampled by conquest and re-conquest at the hands of Germany and the Soviet Union. Within the killing fields, during the 1930s and 1940s, Moscow and Berlin deported and jailed hundreds of thousands and killed hundreds of thousands more.  Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, each country in the eastern Baltics developed democratic norms and sought closer ties with Western Europe. Recent events have rekindled old nightmares.    

Such was not the case when we visited the Baltics in 2019. The tourism industry in the region had exploded into an economic powerhouse that brought prosperity to many. In 2016, there were 88 million international arrivals, 54 million overnight stays by international visitors and almost 650,000 people employed directly in tourism-related industries.

Tourism was by far the most important service industry in the Baltic Sea community.  The allure of Viking history, picture book Baltic towns and the museums of St. Petersburg were impossible for travelers to resisit. Of course, COVID-19 changed everything. For two tourist seasons, all forms of travel came to a grinding halt.  Disappointed travelers were forced to binge watch Viking shows on Netflix.

2022 was heralded as the year that travel would regain its importance to the Baltic economies. However, in February, Russia announced its “special military operation” in Ukraine, and suddenly the Baltics had more to worry about than a virus. History and the words of Vladimir Putin convinced Baltic leaders that nothing less than a new Iron Curtain would be grinding into place in the event that Ukraine was dominated by Russia. To understand the concern, pull up a map of the old Soviet Union and compare it to the modern landscape.

In recent history, Sweden and Finland have managed to maintain neutrality in the shadow of the Russian bear. In return for Russian oil and to avoid conflict, both countries have joined the European Union, but not requested NATO membership. Following the invasion, which fundamentally altered  the security situation, US officials expect these Nordic neighbors to submit applications to join the NATO alliance, potentially as early as June.  Russia has warned of “severe military and political consequences” if both countries join the bloc. Already, both Nordic countries have increased their military budgets to all-time highs.

The small Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are in a more vulnerable position. Although all three joined NATO in the 1990s, their small size and shared border with Russia pose a serious threat to independence.

Time magazine recently examined events in Estonia since the Ukraine invasion. This micro-nation of 1.3 million people has the third highest defense budget of any NATO participant. The Estonian Defense League has recruited 15,000 ordinary citizens to spend weekends training in guerrilla warfare. More are signing up every day to learn basic skills and then train with the regular army. According to Time: “This serves as reassurance in a country where many believe that should Ukraine fall, they will be next.”

Time sat down with Estonia’s young Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, to discuss the threat that Putin poses to the Baltic States. Asked about how Estonians view the war in Ukraine, she replied, “When we hear about deportations from Mariupol, the painful memories tell us we have to do everything we can do to help Ukraine. For us war means utter destruction.”

Resources once dedicated to making money from western tourists are now being utilized to house, clothe and feed Ukrainian refugees. Over five million have fled to countries which neighbor on the Ukrainian border. As the conflict goes on, the homeless have spread out throughout the Baltics, searching for arrangements that are more permanent.

I am sure that travelers will someday return to the Baltics to enjoy its many pleasures.  Unfortunately, the former carefree environment will be lost to the realities of a region recovering from war.