THE ELECTION BEFORE THE ELECTION

Almost all domestic political commentary is focused on the November 8, 2022 midterm elections. The threshold question is whether Democrats will lose control of both chambers of Congress.  For the midterms, Pennsylvania offers up its own critical Senate race to replace retiring Senator Pat Toomey. The election of a new governor to replace Democrat Tom Wolf is also on the ballot in November.

The “election before the election”, better known as the Pennsylvania Primary, will be held on May 17. If the past turnout is prologue, few registered voters will take the time to disclose their preferences in the May primary. While an important general election often brings out 65% of registered voters, an average primary is lucky to achieve a 25% participation rate.

What is the political history of the election before the election?  There are no provisions in either the Federal or Pennsylvania Constitutions that govern primary elections. The United States is one of a handful of countries to select general election candidates through popular vote in a primary election system. Other democratic countries rely on party leaders or in some cases, party members to select candidates. 

Primary elections are often characterized as a more progressive, democratic vehicle for determining candidates. However, formal party organizations have adopted strict voting rules and continue to retain significant influence over primary nomination outcomes.

Primary elections can take several different forms. The terms of voter participation can vary by jurisdiction, political party, and the office or offices up for election. Pennsylvania is a closed primary state for the upcoming Senate and Governor contests.  Accordingly, voters may only cast ballots for the political party in which they are affiliated.

Why bother to vote in a primary when the focus is on the November election? First, primary elections, by design, attract those obsessive partisan voters and political operatives that are more likely to support candidates on the fringes. This trend makes it difficult for “big tent” moderate candidates who could attract a broader range of voters in a general election to win in a primary. Improved participation of moderate party voters in primary elections will often reverse this trend and result in more moderate general election candidates.

Second, when there is a larger and broader turnout of primary voters, the polling data for these voters can influence the strategy in the general election. The winning candidates will be compelled to rethink the general election and redirect resources to the demographics and issues important to all the primary voters.

Lastly, moderate candidates that garner widespread support can still influence the platform of the winning candidate if they perform better than expected in the primary contest. To demonstrate how the upcoming May “election before the election” can affect the general election, I will focus on two primaries: the Republican Senate and Democratic Governor contests.

In the Republican primary for the Senate seat two flamboyant candidates with few ties to Pennsylvania, have waged a vicious media campaign against each other. Both are seeking the support of politically active far right voters who support Donald Trump and tend to show up in primaries. First on the scene was television celebrity and former heart surgeon, Mehmet Oz, trading on his popularity and huckster demeanor. Not to be outdone, former hedge fund manager, David McCormick, entered the fray as a folksy farmer who can defeat the Democratic “socialists” and “woke” mob. On April 8, Mr. Trump announced his endorsement of Dr. Oz, which will determine to what degree the former president continues to influence his base of supporters.

Many observers are curious to see how a third candidate, Jeff Bartos, will fare in the primary. Unlike his other two opponents, he is a lifelong Pennsylvania resident, less flamboyant and without the deep pockets of his opponents. None of these candidates have been previously elected to office. The winner will face a Democratic candidate (either Conor Lamb or John Fetterman) with strong credentials serving in elected office.

In the Democratic Gubernatorial contest there is only one candidate, Josh Schapiro, the present state attorney general. He previously served in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and as chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners. Shapiro’s reputation has been enhanced by gaining national attention in his efforts to protect voting rights, fight crime and defeat the opiate crisis. As a result, no other Pennsylvania Democrat could find a pathway to challenge him.

I have observed in person Mr. Shapiro’s stump speech for governor and watched a televised debate of the Republican senate primary candidates. The difference could not have been be more striking. The Republicans attacked each other and phantom socialists with mean-spirited vigor. Each tried to outmatch the other in repeating screeds made famous by Trump at his political rallies. It was clear that their positions were intended to sway a partisan audience dedicated to retuning Trump to the White House.

Our Democratic attorney general took the opposite approach in his campaign for governor. His comments explained who he was, what he has accomplished and the moderate programs he attends to implement as governor. His focus will be on education, crime and opioid-related deaths.

Keep an eye on the winner of the Republican Senate primary to see if more substantive policy positions are adopted prior to the November election. If not, Republican voters will be casting a ballot for a Trump “Parrot” rather than a thoughtful conservative.