PREDICTING THE FUTURE IN 2023

         

 “It’s hard to make predictions, particularly about the future.” Yogi Berra

The Twilight Zone, an anthology television series created by Rod Serling in the late 1950s, had a major influence on my early view of the world. The episodes that most fascinated me dealt with the show’s protagonists finding ways to predict the future. The greedy actors, attempting to score ill-gotten gains from profiting off future events, always ended up badly.

Moving forward to December 2022, the emerging new year brings forth an avalanche of crystal ball gazing experts in domestic and foreign policy matters, finance and new cultural trends. Unlike the Twilight Zone, our modern prognosticators are looking through hazy crystal balls. Their conjectures can simply be useless, or worse, dangerous. This commentary will examine the limits and advantages of attempting to predict the future as we move forward in a complex world.

Using data to predict future events is not unlike predicting the weather. The broader the category, the easier it is to get it right. (It will rain tomorrow and be sunny the next day.) Conversely, more precise forecasting is difficult. (Where will the hurricane make landfall?) The time and money spent on learning how to interpret present data to predict future events is all about gaining results that are more focused and accurate.

Investment forecasting is especially fraught with erroneous results. Few investors predicted the devastating market crash of 2008 or the two years of upheaval caused by the pandemic. The outliers who correctly read the tealeaves and bet against the herd made millions. The rest of the herd went over the cliff and has been slow to financially recover.

Past failures do not discourage the financial press from making predictions for the New Year.  This December, the Wall Street Journal, BARRON’S and the financial cable networks have all published their forecasts. Most pundits are calling for at least a mild recession in 2023 and a continuing rise in interest rates until inflation is under control. Oil and gas stocks remain in favor, but are undergoing volatile swings. Picking individual stocks for the year will likely be less successful than ancient efforts by the Oracle of Delphi.

Many investment advisors believe those stocks that have fallen the most in 2022 will be winners in 2023. Unexpected moves in the Ukraine conflict, China reopening or interest rates will have an immediate effect on stock prices that will require a nimble approach.

Predicting world events occurs on two levels. Similar to investment gurus, international journalists enjoy speculating on future world events. Each year, the renowned Economist magazine publishes an entire issue on The World Ahead. These attempts at prediction tend to be broad in nature.  For example, this year the Economist is naming the war in Ukraine as the primary force shaping the future. It believes that energy prices, inflation, interest rates, economic growth and food shortages all depend on how the conflict plays out. The Economist forecasts a grinding stalemate as the most likely outcome in 2023.

On other issues, the Economist believes an unseen benefit in the Ukraine war will be a world acceleration toward renewable energy sources. It sees China at an economical peak with India on a mission to catch up. The Economist speculates that a China-Taiwan conflict is more likely over the next 12 months.

The second level in predicting world events involves a more serious exercise than the impressions of journalists. Policymakers routinely make highly consequential, difficult-to-reverse decisions. They depend on information provided by national security specialists. There is no situation where leaders would not want better visibility into the future.

Ironically, use of statistical forecasting, a tool used by meteorologists and management consultants, is resisted by those security agencies that could benefit from statistical analysis. Policy experts are more likely to rely on their own professional acumen and experience to provide analysis. They are comfortable in providing a “story” to policymakers and in avoiding more narrow statistics. They believe it is better that a given analysis be “believable” with a good narrative than be “probable” with mounds of boring statistics.

Only in 2015 did the CIA begin defining probability ranges in its work product provided to national policy makers. The change has been slow to catch on.  Moreover, world leaders like President Biden have a long history of relying on their hunches, based on a good story to back it up, rather than on calculated odds determined by statistical analysis.

Last year, the Biden administration got it right in predicting when Russia would invade Ukraine. Nevertheless, when it comes to truly novel questions like Putin’s use of nuclear weapons or his desire to end hostilities, all experts and observers are left scratching their heads. Relying on analysis regarding Putin’s subjective intent may be as dangerous as playing “Russian roulette.”

On a personal level, predicting events that effect our lives supports the development of critical thinking skills. It requires us to draw upon prior knowledge and experiences as well as observations to anticipate what might happen.  It is another tool to aid in escaping “herd-mentality” in order to reach our own valid conclusions.

PICKLEBALL HAS CONQUERED AMERICA

 

Normally, new cultural phenomena are the invention of the young. Popular music, fashion, successful restaurants and celebrity are all determined by what those under 30 say they are.  Baby boomers, once the darlings of advertisers, have now been relegated to the AARP Magazine. Moreover, if you are not actively engaged in the metaverse, crypto currency, TikTok, fantasy sports, online sports betting or edible cannabis, you are a dinosaur not participating in the newest cultural trends.

Those of us born in the decade following WWII have not gone down without a fight. We are not ready to be relegated to the senior citizen centers. We boomers have discovered a new cultural phenomena of our own, as big as Woodstock, bell bottoms, disco and leisure suits.  Our generation may have made a fine mess of the world, but we will not pass into history without leaving one final imprint on society. It is called pickleball, and it is sweeping the country by storm.

Three fathers, on an island outside of Seattle, Washington, invented pickleball in 1965.  They wanted to amuse their bored children over the summer months. The dads used wooden paddles, a wiffle ball and lowered the family badminton net. Within a week, they had developed a set of rules, and pickleball was born.  The concept caught on, and private courts began appearing in Washington State, where the little known sport remained a curiosity for decades.

Aging baby boomers like to brag that age 60 is the new 30. However, arthritis, heart attacks and knee/hip replacements taught us otherwise. We found it more challenging, if not impossible, to compete in the group sports we loved in our youth. Through word of mouth pickleball exploded in popularity across the country as 69.6 million boomers ages 58 to 76 became acquainted with the sport. In 2022, it was adopted as the state sport of Washington. Also in 2022, the Sports and Fitness Industry Association named pickleball the fastest growing sport in the United States.

What explains this rapid growth? A pickleball court is 44 feet long and 20 feet wide. It can be played indoors, utilizing basketball courts or outdoors where two pickleball courts fit nicely within the parameters of an existing tennis court. It is mostly played with four competitors (doubles) keeping exertion moderate and chance of injury low. Pickleball is ideally suited for individuals with widely varied skill sets and fitness levels. Lastly, the buy-in for equipment is not expensive, and the sport provides an enjoyable social experience for all those who participate.

To keep the game fun for everyone, the rules require an underhand serve. To prevent “spiking the ball,” there is a “non-volley zone,” an area that can not be entered unless the ball bounces inside the zone. These regulations keep young and powerful people from dominating the game.

There are now an estimated 35,000 courts in the U.S., more than double the number from five years ago. Professional sports figures, including Lebron James and Tom Brady, are endorsing equipment manufacturers and licensed leagues around the country.

The pickleball phenomena has captured the attention of Southwestern Pennsylvania. This summer, a Pittsburgh grandmother, Meg Burkardt, arrived at her local North Park pickleball courts looking to round out a foursome. She noticed that the three male players she encouraged to join her were in great shape, but she was the most experienced player on the court and had no trouble winning her matches.

When spectators began asking for photographs, she became annoyed that she was not included.  It was only later that she learned her fellow players were Alex Highsmith, T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The story went viral on Twitter and social media. If a grandmother could hold her own with three professional football players, baby boomers clearly had a sporting activity they could embrace.

Washington County has bought into pickleball in a big way.  It seems that every tennis court in the area is another opportunity for two pickleball courts to pop up.  A Washington Park Pickleball Club has been formed and is supported by the county and the City of Washington. The club currently has 80 members with others eager to join on a waiting list. Club members have exclusive use of four courts at Washington Park, four mornings each week.

In May of 2022, the club sponsored its first tournament. Ninety-seven players from across the area participated. The effort will be expanded in 2023 with a grant from the County’s tourism office helping to defray costs. The purchase of high quality portable nets will provide 16 courts for use in the tournament.

Where does pickleball go from here? I am sure that culturally conscious young people will continue to join the craze with Tik Tok pickleball videos and new fashion statements based on the sport. Inevitably, confrontations have appeared as pickleball has spread. Die-hard tennis players are not happy with the invasion (literally) onto their turf. The sound of balls striking paddles has become the new annoying “leaf blower.” As a result, many retirement communities now require that softer balls be used.

With professional leagues and television contracts, pickleball is here to stay. The sport’s mantra, “one more game,” will follow baby boomers into their graves with a smile, thankful for a life better lived because of pickleball.

A RETURN TO A YULETIDE OF JOY

In 2020 and 2021, our holiday season was bleak on many levels. Because memories are short and gratitude fleeting, this commentary will review what we have survived. Moreover, it will make a case that December 2022 should mark a time for reaffirming yuletide joy.  I will also relate two occurrences that reestablished my faith in the holiday spirit.

The Pandemic.  In December of 2020, the first vaccines were slow to reach the arms of citizens as the Trump administration focused on the election loss and left the final steps of mass vaccination to the beleaguered states. The overall picture was grim with understaffed hospitals, community lockdowns and school closures. January 2021 became the deadliest month of the pandemic with more than 95,000 virus related deaths reported in America.

In December of 2021, the country was eager to get back to a normal holiday season. However, the omicron variant was spreading faster than the delta strain.  Public health officials urged all Americans to scale back their Christmas plans and stay home to protect themselves and others.  

For this holiday season, festive events, travel and family gatherings have returned. While numerous sub-lineages of the omicron variant are circulating, none has been designated as a new variant of concern. Public health services have upgraded the capabilities for quick detection and information sharing.  In December 2022, while indoor masking is recommended for the vulnerable, the impact of the virus on our lives is greatly reduced.

The Political Climate. On January 6, 2021, a mob of Donald Trump supporters attacked the United States Capitol Building in Washington, D.C.  The mob was seeking to keep Trump in power by preventing a joint session of Congress from counting the Electoral College votes to formalize the results of the November election.   More than 2,000 rioters entered the building, many of whom vandalized, looted and assaulted Capitol Police officers. Five people died either during or after the event.

By December of 2021, 19 Republican state legislatures had passed 34 new laws that made it harder to vote.  Lawmakers in four additional states had pre-filed at least 13 bills for the 2022 legislative sessions that would make it harder to cast a ballot. Donald Trump’s Republican allies doubled down on their allegiance to the former president.  Many political observers placed the United States on a list of democratic countries that were quickly backsliding into an “illiberal democracy.”    

This year, following the November 2022 midterm elections, there is a new optimism concerning the vitality of America’s democratic republic. The voters worked around voting limitations and rejected extreme contenders. Moderate candidates were elected to hold the line against election deniers and authoritarian government. 

This December, the losses, legal setbacks and embarrassments to the former president are piling up. At the end of the month, the January 6 Committee will release its detailed report explaining Trump’s insurrection to the American people. Many of the January 6 insurrectionists have been tried, convicted and sentenced to jail.

Commissioner Larry Maggi’s Christmas Party.  The first of my personal holiday shout-out goes to Commissioner Larry Maggi. As with many other traditional events, the Maggi Christmas Party returned this year after a two-year absence. Make no mistake; this is a political event, filled with Democrats and other individuals who have supported the Commissioner over the years.

What makes the celebration unique and heartwarming is that Republicans are invited to share the holiday spirit along with Democrats. The two Republican Commissioners were in attendance along with many other reputable Republicans from around Washington County. In Maggi’s remarks to the crowd, he stressed the importance of the County’s political adversaries celebrating the joy of the season as one community dedicated to good government. If only this seasonal bright spot could flourish and be replicated around the country.

My Observer Reporter Newspaper Carrier.  Newspaper carrier, Willard Smith, has earned my gratitude and a special acknowledgment this holiday season. I am sure that his job description (if he even has one) is very basic and does not include making his customers happy every time they open the front door to begin a new day. Previous carriers would deliver the paper sometime during the day, somewhere on my property, often requiring a search under porches and shrubbery.

Willard Smith delivers the paper in a timely fashion and on my front porch no matter the weather or time of year. No wet newspapers that are impossible to read. No long searches on a cold morning. No phone calls to the OR to get a replacement paper.

For Willard “delivery” is not what is most convenient for him. He has formulated his own job description to do the right thing so that he can do his job well. His example could form the basis for a study on how to improve customer satisfaction by learning the purpose of a job, not simply the mechanics. We all know workers like Willard who make a point to go the extra mile. Remember to acknowledge them this holiday season.

There is always the possibility that another virus will send us back to the deepest days of the pandemic. American politics remain fraught with an ugly strain of cultural nativism and unwarranted conspiracy theories. However, we will learn from our past public health and political missteps. In the meantime, individuals from a Commissioner to a newspaper carrier give us gratitude. Enjoy the season.

 

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UNIVERSAL BROADBAND IS THE NEW POST OFFICE

 

Certain historical benchmarks have made American democracy unique in the world.  Two of the most important that explain our rapid rise as a nation were the build-out of a nationwide public education system and the post office. Both were treated as necessities in a young democracy. 

In the case of the post office, the mission was to provide the growing American public with affordable and universal mail service. Early on, Congress recognized the role of the post office in expanding commerce and in binding the nation together. A series of statutes mandated post office obligations that included geographic scope, range of mail products, access to service, frequency of delivery and uniform pricing.

In today’s modern society, universal broadband connectivity has become the newest mandate that a democratic republic must provide for its people.  This means that anyone, anywhere, regardless of geographic location, socio-economic status, race, or gender has access to affordable internet services and devices. Federal, state and local governments have recently begun working together to institute this important project. The following commentary will explain why universal broadband deserves our support. It will also describe successful efforts to implement this goal in Washington County.

The post office was never about turning a profit. In 1860, $600,000 was spent to carry mail and newspapers to a developing California, but the agency collected only $119,000 in fees. The payoff in postal delivery to isolated communities was measured through improved literacy and civic spirit. In 2021, the post office may have reported a $4.9 billion dollar loss, but everyone gets their mail.

Today, more information is exchanged electronically than by paper. While broadband is replacing the post office in importance, recent research has found that as many as 42 million Americans are still without access to high-speed broadband internet. Moreover, only 72 percent of households in rural communities reported having access to broadband at home, compared to 79 percent in urban areas. 

The “last mile” problem is significant.  Private internet providers often refuse to extend service to sparsely populated areas where user fees cannot cover the cost. Moreover, before the pandemic there was an ongoing political debate over whether the necessity of broadband justified government spending in a private market.

Following the pandemic, which caused unprecedented death, isolation and economic damage, the eyes of elected leaders were opened to the need for universal broadband. First, it was clear that broadband provided easy access to governmental and financial services with no need to visit a brick and mortar facility. Second, vital emergency services were available online. Third, when businesses were closed, broadband video conferencing expanded opportunities in the work place. Fourth, on-line medical appointments (telehealth) became indispensable in providing healthcare for rural and elderly populations. Fifth, universal connectivity fostered equality by providing information sources to everyone. Lastly, broadband provided the means for isolated students to access ongoing learning opportunities.

In May of 2022, the Biden administration launched a $45 billion dollar “Internet for All” initiative to bring affordable high-speed broadband to everyone in America by the end of this decade.  The President called for a “whole-of-government” approach.  To participate in the program, states were required to submit a letter of intent to unlock planning funds.  Each participating state was guaranteed a minimum $100 million allocation.

Shortly after the federal program was publicized, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf announced the state’s readiness to deploy more than $100 million in federal funds to bring broadband to underserved areas.  In a rare act of cooperation, the Governor and the State General Assembly worked together to create the Pennsylvania Broadband Development Authority to distribute the funds.

As reported in the Observer Reporter in June of this year, the Washington County Commissioners approved separate contracts totaling nearly $5.4 million to bring high-speed internet to West Finley Township and Bentleyville. These actions will provide internet services to nearly 1,000 new customers in those areas within the next two years. In October, the commissioners disclosed another phase of the initiative. Ten separate projects will connect 5,000 new customers in southern and western parts of the county.  

Commissioner Chairman Diana Irey Vaughan announced, “The focus of our initiative is to offer equitable access to broadband in underserved regions of Washington County,” Commissioner Larry Maggi added, “Community growth, economic development and broadband expansion are all positively linked.”

It is noteworthy that Washington County did not wait several years for the new federal and state broadband funding to filter its way down to the county level. To their credit, the Commissioners immediately earmarked $30 million for broadband projects. The county received these funds in pandemic allotments from the Federal American Rescue Plan Act. This will permit Washington County to be in the vanguard of providing internet service to its citizens. 

The success of broadband implementation in Washington County is another example of competent civil servants working with visionary elected leaders to achieve positive results. The commissioners have praised the  efforts of John Timney, Executive Director of the Washington County Authority. Mr. Timney has demonstrated that a well-organized local government can respond to a challenge much faster than federal and state agencies.

Thanks to Timney’s well-laid plans and the support of the commissioners, Washington County will become a national model in providing universal broadband to the residents and businesses that need it the most.

GET READY FOR THE 2023 ELECTIONS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY

 

“Your day-to-day involvement with local government matters far more than a referendum on the White House every four years.” Michelle Wu

Next year will permit most of the country to recover from a demanding 2022 midterm election season. Pennsylvanians will be spared another eleven months of continuous campaign ads.  However, there will be little time to turn away from politics in Washington County. In 2023, the Commissioners and a majority of the other county officials will be standing for election. What makes the 2023 election season of special interest to local voters is the subject of this commentary.

To understand what is at stake, four groups of election players must be considered. First are the traditional Democrats, led by minority Commissioner Larry Maggi.  His position in winning reelection next November is the most secure. However, if his party is unable to elect another Democrat to serve with him, his influence will remain limited, outflanked by two Republican Commissioners. The Republican majority in  voter registration makes a Democratic sweep highly unlikely, unless Democrats are able to reverse recent trends.

Second are the traditional Republicans, led by Commissioner Chairman Diana Irey Vaughan. Four years ago her party gained control of county government for the first time in decades. Her political future appeared secure. Diana Irey Vaughan is a stanch conservative, but she believes in practical leadership over right wing ideology. Today, an insurgent group of Republicans who seek to remove her from office have weakened her position.  If she runs for reelection, the Republican Primary for Commissioner will be a raucous affair.

Third are the local MAGA Republicans, self-styled as “patriots.” This group’s leaders now manage the county Row Offices. These elected officials show no allegiance to Commissioner Irey Vaughan notwithstanding that she was instrumental in placing them in office four years ago. They plan to run their own slate of candidates who favor the positions of the former president.

The insurgent complaint against Irey Vaughan is that she has not replaced many political appointments and county civil servants with MAGA Republicans. Most importantly, Irey Vaughan never supported the local “stop the steal” movement, which includes replacing all of the county’s voting machines.  Lastly, Irey Vaughan has backed the county court system and the President Judge through several contentious disputes regarding court administration.

Fourth are the individuals in key positions appointed by Irey Vaughan and other long-serving county civil servants. These employees have faithfully kept local government running like a well-oiled machine. Unfortunately, they have a short shelf life if MAGA Republicans gain majority control of the commissioner’s office. These positions include County Solicitor, Budget Director, Chief of Staff, Director of the Planning Commission, Director of Elections, Director of the Chamber of Commerce/Tourism Agency and many others. The replacement of these employees, responsible for running important functions, with inexperienced MAGA partisans would cause chaos in local government.  

Republicans in favor of good government should be careful what they wish for. If they replace Irey Vaughn and terminate other key employees, local government will implode. Voters should recall that right wing Republicans captured the Allegheny County commissioner’s office in the early 1990s and attempted similar radical changes. Without dedicated non-partisan employees in key positions, Allegheny County’s municipal bond rating went down and surplus county funds disappeared.  Businesses lost confidence, and basic services could not be delivered. Living and working under such conditions became undesirable.

Another historical example when zealotry was permitted to trump local government will emphasize my point. It takes us to Florence, Italy near the end of the Renaissance. Jerome Savonarola was a Dominican Friar who denounced what he and other religious extremists considered corruption and despotic rule.

In 1494 with the help of the French King, he was able to expel the long ruling Medici family from Florence.  The friar instituted a scorched earth, puritanically Christian campaign to reverse all of the secular beauty that Renaissance artists had brought to Florence. In his famous “bonfire of the vanities”, priceless manuscripts, paintings and sculptures that Savonarola deemed immoral were burned in the public square.

Savonarola's divine mandate soon became a fiasco, and popular opinion turned against him.  Citizens came to understand that the Medici family knew how to govern and that the friar, steeped in religious fervor, but with no leadership abilities, did not. Within five years, it was Savonarola who was burned at the stake and the Medici’s were welcomed back into power.

This tale of those with extreme political views gaining power in local government could easily be repeated in Washington County.  MAGA supporters were recently elected to lead the local Republican Party.  The new Party leadership immediately announced plans to “clean up Washington County” and to “dismantle the Democrat cabal.” These goals are head scratchers in that Republicans have controlled county government for the past four years.

One of the first acts promised by MAGA Republicans, if their commissioner candidates win in November, is to "metaphorically burn” all of the county voting machines on the courthouse steps and return to paper ballots. Local MAGA Republicans have other current policies they are against with few positive plans for governing Washington County.  Like the Florentine friar and his supporters, our local MAGA Republicans are a radical political experiment that we should avoid at all costs.