A REVIEW OF THE 2023 ELECTION RESULTS

 

Local Republicans are to be congratulated for painting Washington County red on Election Day. None of the theories on how County Democrats could reverse the outcome from four years ago were valid.

According to my back-of-the-envelope calculations, the voter registration advantage that Republicans hold in the County, combined with one-half of those registered Independent, was the percentage of total registrations that provided the large margin of victory in the Row Office races. The Democratic team for Commissioner garnered a higher percentage of the votes in a loss as did the Republican candidates for County Treasurer and District Attorney in wins.

The closest contest was for the third and deciding seat on the Board of Commissioners between Democrat Cindy Fisher and Republican Electra Janis. Janis won by 1,060 votes giving Republicans a majority on the Board for another four years. Republicans also did well across the county in municipal and school board elections.

The winning Republican Commissioner team campaigned with a number of general slogans like, “protect taxpayers, increase transparency, and grow jobs.” It remains to be seen whether there is a hidden Republican agenda to reorganize county departments and agencies, including the Election Office and those responsible for economic development. Extreme members of the local Republican Party have called for such a move. If a decision by the Republican majority radically changes the status quo, minority Commissioner, Larry Maggi, will be limited to recording a dissenting vote and presenting his objections to the public.

Republican Row Office candidates all won, and will be entering their second term in office, with one exception in the Clerk of Courts where a first term Republican will assume office. The well-publicized disruptions that occurred during the incumbents’ first term are behind them. There is now the opportunity to reset Row Office goals and to serve the court system and Washington County’s citizens in a professional manner, free from partisan politics.

The local Republican Party has enjoyed contrasting its conservative views with its larger, progressive neighbor to the north. Now that liberal Democrat, Sara Innamorato, has been elected Executive of Allegheny County, this ongoing juxtaposition of policies and values can continue in earnest.

Ms. Innamorato has promised to introduce a number of progressive programs in Allegheny County. She will work with Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey to revitalize downtown Pittsburgh, reform police practices, increase available housing and to manage the homeless problem. Local Republicans will gleefully point out any setbacks and encourage disgruntled Allegheny County residents to move into our communities.

As pointed out in a post-election study conducted by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Allegheny County totals were not the expected straight party vote of urban Pittsburgh Democrats surrounded by a sea of straight party Republican vote in outer suburbs. The race for County Executive was much closer than the larger Democratic registration would suggest. Moreover, the Democratic progressive candidate for District Attorney, Matt Dugan, lost to the long-term office holder, Steven Zappala Jr.

The PPG study found that, “In 40% of precincts, both a Democrat and a Republican won at least one top-tier race. That includes nearly 50 voting districts within city limits, and dozens more in some of the county’s most Republican areas.” Interestingly, very little ticket splitting was evident in Washington County where voters favored their party of registration.

In contrast to Washington County’s red wave, Pennsylvania voting patterns across the state were noticeably blue. Eastern counties, including Bucks and Dauphin flipped their Boards of Commissioners to Democratic. Democrat, Dan McCaffery, won the most significant Pennsylvania contest for the open Supreme Court seat. This maintained a Democratic majority on the Commonwealth’s highest court. Five Democrat Justices and two Republicans will now tackle important cases including voting rights, abortion, and gun control.
Both Democratic and Republican political strategists across Pennsylvania believe that the continued backlash against the U.S. Supreme Court’s opinion that overturned a 50-year-old -right to abortion is behind an increase in Democratic victories. It is uncertain whether this trend will hold in 2024. Pennsylvania will be a key battleground state in determining our next president and control of the U.S. Senate.
Nationally, several closely watched elections added to the Democratic winning streak. Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won re-election in deeply Republican Kentucky. In Virginia, Democrats continued to control the state Senate and were able to flip the state House blue. Lastly, in the red state of Ohio, Democrats pushed across voter acceptance of a ballot measure to amend the state constitution to include the right to an abortion.

To temper the good news for Democrats is a recent nationwide poll that shows President Biden with only a 39 percent approval rating in the battleground states. According to the New York Times, “The great question for the next year is whether the less engaged, less ideological, disaffected young people and nonwhite voters who do not like Mr. Biden will return to his side once the campaign gets underway.”

Both political parties will continue to analyze the 2023 election results hoping to gain an advantage ahead of the 2024 national elections.