A LOOK AT THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

 

“The vice presidency is not worth a bucket of warm spit.” John Nance Garner

There has long been disagreement among political scientists whether vice presidential candidates make a difference in presidential elections. The above quote sums up the traditional view that voters pay little attention to the second person on the national ticket.

In recent elections, this opinion has changed. For example, there is strong evidence that Sarah Palin damaged John McCain in 2008 and that Joe Biden garnered important votes for Barack Obama in the same election.

The definitive book on the subject is Do Running Mates Matter? The Influence of Vice-Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections. (May 15, 2020 by Christopher Devine & Kyle Kopko). The authors concluded that a running mate who is experienced and well-qualified can improve the perception of the presidential candidate, capture some votes, and make a difference.

The following commentary provides background and opinion on each of the vice-presidential candidates in the upcoming election: Minnesota Democrat Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Republican Senator JD Vance. I gained some insights from those who live in the home state of each candidate and relied on the excellent deep dive reports published by POLITICO on each candidate’s history.

Democrat Governor Tim Walz.  Dana Ferguson from MN Public Radio reports that Walz “Was able to pass a balanced budget in the state with a Senate Republican majority and a House Democratic majority. In 2023 he passed “a child tax credit, legal protections for abortions, along with new protections for workers and for voters.”

I spoke with our cousin, Noel Bye, from Minneapolis, MN who was happy to see Governor Walz chosen to join Kamala Harris on the ticket. His impressions included, “Walz has been an amazing Governor and we are sorry to lose him. He has been able to reach across the aisle and accomplish many things including a free breakfast and lunch program for schools. He has actually worked for a living and understands the struggles the middle class faces every day.”

The POLITICO article, 55 Things to Know About Tim Walz, provides a lifetime of basic information. Walz was raised in Butte, Nebraska, a town of 400. He enlisted in the Army National Guard at 17. After college, he learned to speak Mandarin and traveled to China with a government sanctioned group to teach in Chinese high schools. Walz served in the Army for 24 years and retired as a Sergeant Major.

In MN, Walz taught geography and coached high school football. He was first elected to Congress in 2006 and re-elected five times in a mostly rural, conservative section of the state. In Congress, Walz was named the ranking member on the House Committee on Veteran’s Affairs. He often worked with Republicans to sponsor and pass legislation.

Walz is an avid hunter who is graded “F” by the NRA because of his forward-looking positions on gun control. In 2019, he ran for Governor of MN and defeated the Republican by 11 points. Walz was chosen to Chair the Democratic Governors Association, in 2023.

Walz has a theory that Trump-endorsed candidates “are weird,” and the voters are being turned off by their radical positions.

Republican Senator JD Vance. In OH, the Republican Attorney General has called Vance “A patriot and fighter for Ohio’s forgotten middle class.” A close friend from Columbus, Michele Wyatt, disagrees. She told me, “Vance’s move to OH was done to support his political aspirations. I think it is dangerous to have someone as ideologically fluid, with minimal experience, questionable ties, and unclear motivations hold the position of second-in-command.”

Returning to POLITICO, the article 55 Things to Know about JD Vance, is a similar in-depth study of Mr. Vance’s background. Vance grew up in a working-class family in post-industrial OH. He describes himself as a descendant of “hillbilly royalty” and was raised primarily by his grandparents. Vance wrote a bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy about his early years in Jackson, Ky. and Middleton, OH.

During the 2016 election, Vance emerged as a vocal critic of Donald Trump. In a TV interview, he stated “I am a Never Trump guy” and tweeted “my god, what an idiot.’” However, during Trump’s years as president, Vance came to support his policies. He voted for Trump in 2020.

After graduating from Yale Law School, Vance joined a venture capital firm run by the Silicon Valley Republican Peter Thiel. In 2022, Vance ran for and won the OH Senate seat, his first public office. He was endorsed by Trump and received over $10 million in donations from his employer.

During his brief time in the Senate, Vance has embraced the “new right” and has attempted to push the Republican Party in a more populist, nationalist, and culturally conservative direction. He is a leading critic of American support for Ukraine and has called the Democratic border policy “a deliberate strategy to kill Republican voters with fentanyl.”

In recent polls, Walz is clearly viewed as more experienced and more likeable than Vance. Vance has assumed the role of attack dog and Walz as a moderate Midwesterner. However, there is no evidence that either VP candidate will move the needle with Trump Republicans or Democrats that previously voted for Biden. Because more independents have an unfavorable view of Vance, like Sarah Palin in 2008, he could hurt the Trump ticket in the critical battleground states.