THE GRAYING OF AMERICA: WHAT COMES NEXT?

 

 

The graying of America should be added to the litany of problems facing the nation. Since 1960, the median age of Americans has risen by nearly nine years. It now stands at 38.3 years from the earlier 29.6. More recently, from 2010 to 2020, the 65-and-over population increased by an astounding 34 percent.

Baby boomers are convinced we will be around for decades to come. If we are correct, the safety net of Social Security and Medicare that were designed for a population with much less longevity will be pushed to its limits.

In many respects it is a worse challenge for spouses, siblings, children, and for organizations that provide housing/long-term health care for the elderly.  According to the website shortlister, approximately 70 per cent of Americans aged 65 and older will require some form of long-term care during their lifetime.

As a card-carrying member of the baby boom generation, I am not only interested in the financial burden we will impose on the nation, but on the legacy our generation is leaving for those we love. To help me better frame the issues, I recently discovered a book, The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America, by Philip Bump.

Bump is a columnist for the Washington Post who is known for his nerdy immersion in charts and graphs to prove a point. His book keeps this tradition alive (128 charts in total) as he attempts to overcome pure speculation with some hard facts.  His thesis is that the downward shift of our population’s center of gravity, the national political climate, and the frustrations of younger Americans will continue to overlap and to explain many of the country’s fissures.  He believes that, “A large generation of boomers, used to accruing and defending its power through sheer scale is watching that power crumble…We’re now living through something exceptional, an historic disruption of an American empire.”

The Aftermath is a sweeping assessment of how the baby boom created modern America. Bump covers all of the important contributions and colossal failures. He believes there are three conduits for power: culture, economics, and politics.  He concludes that the cultural shift is all but over, heavily centered on the young.  He sees economic power dependent on how much it costs to maintain older baby boomers, along with the housing market, student debt, and the ability of the next generation to generate enough tax revenue to care for the elderly.

Regarding politics, when the book was written, Trump’s second term was not yet part of the equation. Bump concluded in 2023 that our generational shift lies at the heart of the current national malaise. Bump posits that the important factors are the direction of political leanings and racial diversity in the electorate.

It is interesting that Bump finds that in the near future, America will look more like Florida—older, less white, conservative.  In a few years, millennials will come into their own and begin demanding a bigger piece of the economic pie. Bump is not sure whether they will be battling their parents to cut senior benefits, or battling the robots seeking their jobs.

In order to escape Bump’s charts and graphs, I decided to seek input from two millennial men with young families. The first, “Noel,” is a father and spouse in suburban Minneapolis, Minnesota. Noel is a politically engaged white-collar progressive. The second is “Joshua” with a young family in Somerset County, Pennsylvania. Joshua is a local banker who remains very close to the farming tradition of his father’s family. He is a conservative with strong libertarian leanings and an active participant in his community.

Noel has strong views on where his parent’s generation failed the country. “The boomer generation was raised with a mentality of individual advancement, rather than building the community up. This allowed cracks in the American foundation.” His theme of self-interest over community continues. “I see great wealth gained by a few Fortune 500 store fronts rather than space for local entrepreneurs.” He has a question for the boomer generation. “What and for whom were you fighting for?” He believes his generation must understand the answer to make peace with boomers and to move forward.

When it comes to his young children, Noel is concerned about the type of world they will inherit. He sees as a main parenting goal to “show them that each of their choices has an impact.” The goal for himself is to be part of his neighborhood and to understand how those with different views can live together.

Given his community and upbringing, Joshua has a more traditional, conservative orientation. There is one regret about his childhood, “I would change the pace of my early life and slow it down, enjoy the simple things.” His views on the future are positive with the caveat, “I put no faith in government to fix the problems of our country.” Joshua wants no part in cradle-to-grave benefits. He believes it is his responsibility to “work hard, maintain a positive attitude and to forge a path of success.” Joshua would place serving God and others ahead of self-serving motives.

Somehow, I feel I received a better sense of “what comes next” from Noel and Joshua than from Bump’s graphs and charts. One thing is for sure; it will be complicated.