MAKING SENSE OF THE COUNTY GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES

Washington County citizens have reason to be overwhelmed by the flurry of initiatives launched by the Commissioners in recent months.  The three major projects are unique but easy to confuse. First, an election referendum to adopt a Government Study Commission; second, an expansion of human services functions in Washington County; and third, approval of an automated case management system for the county courts, have all been introduced.

To make matters more confounding is the misinformation being circulated by certain parties to derail the most deserving of these plans. This commentary will attempt to explain each the above initiatives, how they are related and how they differ.

Government Study Commission. This summer, the concept of a Government Study Commission progressed from a good idea (one that I have advocated for several years) to an actual ordinance placing the referendum to adopt the Study Commission before the voters on November 2. If Washington County ultimately adopts a Home Rule form of government, it would enhance the ability to make decisions based on local needs. Washington County would no longer be forced to follow a one-size-fits-all state code that is decided by state legislators.

In August, those interested in serving on the commission had a brief window to gather signatures on a petition backing their candidacy. On Election Day, voters will decide whether to adopt a Government Study Commission and on the same ballot will select eleven commissioners from among 51 candidates.  They will only serve if the vote to form the Commission is in the affirmative. 

The decision by the Commissioners to fast track a Government Study Commission was no doubt influenced by the deteriorating relationship between the Commissioners and the Washington County court system on one side and the Republican officials elected to administer the clerical Row Offices on the other. It is true that the Study Commission could advocate for elimination of these offices. One professional administrator, appointed by the courts and the commissioners, to perform these clerical functions, would replace partisan elected officials. However, it is important to keep in mind that an elected Study Commission would be tasked with examining all aspects of county government, not simply the future of the clerical Row Offices.

The process in adopting a Home Rule Charter is purposefully deliberate and involves public/voter input at all phases of the multiple stage proceeding mandated by state law.  Public meetings to solicit ideas will be held, research on other Pennsylvania Home Rule Counties conducted, and all options discussed. The Study Commission may decide to retain the existing governmental structure in which case the project is concluded. If the Commission drafts a new plan, only the Washington County voters can approve the proposed Home Rule Charter.

It is baffling to me that the Washington County Republican Party has mounted an all-out campaign to convince voters not to appoint a government study commission. In 2019, Republicans campaigned on the deficiencies in local government and the theft in the Clerk of Court’s office. Now that Republicans are in the majority in Washington County, they have the opportunity to play a meaningful role in developing a governmental structure that addresses their concerns. Instead, local Republicans have elected irresponsible officials to several of the Row Offices and refused to participate in a democratic process to improve local government.

Expansion of County Human Services. With a bipartisan decision at a recent meeting, Commissioners Diana Irey Vaughn and Larry Maggi delayed any move to reconfigure the county’s department of Human Services.  Commissioner Sherman, who proposed the unneeded and costly expansion, was not in agreement.  The plan for the new Human Services Department would include the hiring of eight new employees at an additional yearly cost of $544,000.00.  

In addition to the cost, the other well-founded criticism of the plan is that it is not needed and would disrupt years of building efficient human service organizations outside of county government. These non-profits (drug/alcohol, elderly/aging and others) have flourished under their independent leadership and have met the needs of Washington County residents.  In the sage words of recently deceased District Attorney, Gene Vittone, “Service delivery is working in the area of drug and alcohol. An old adage is applicable here. ‘If it isn’t broken don’t fix it.’ Let our team continue our good work.”

Automated Case Management System for the County Courts. The commissioners have approved the purchase of a comprehensive case management system that will integrate all court employees and courtrooms, including the functions of the clerical Row Offices, into one system. The county can utilize pandemic relief funds received from the federal government to pay for the installation. The federal courts and several forward-looking Pennsylvania counties have installed similar systems that have proven to be a significant cost reduction over time. Fewer clerks will be needed to process paper documents and storage costs will be reduced.  Litigants in the court system will save on legal fees because lawyers throughout the region will be able to file legal pleadings electronically.

In connection with the above county initiatives, I would like to make two observations.  First, the misguided attempt to reconfigure Human Services should be a topic reviewed by the Government Study Commission. This would give independent elected citizens the opportunity to make recommendations. Second, the court case management system will have a profound effect on the clerical Row Offices, whether they are replaced or remain in effect as elected offices.

 

GOOD THINKING IN AN IRRATIONAL WORLD

When Republicans are prepared to challenge every decision made by President Joe Biden, often before he announces a course of action, this thinking process is irrational. To a lesser extent, when Democrats support the President before thinking through the ramifications, this is not a rational exercise. In both cases it is easier and more emotionally satisfying to stick with the party line rather than modify a long held belief.

 

The number of partisan Republicans and Democrats comprise a large portion of the voting population and are relatively equal. Wide majorities in both parties – 75% of Democrats and 64% of Republicans – say those in the other party are more closed-minded than other Americans.  With these hardened battle lines, there is little room for a rational “peace table” to flourish.

 

How can it be that as humanity is reaching new heights of scientific understanding and information sharing it also appears to be losing its mind? How can our society that developed vaccines for Covid-19 in less than a year produce so much fake news, medical quackery and political conspiracy theorizing?

 

Given the fractured condition of the American polity it should come as no surprise that a rash of books on rationality will be published this fall. Steven Pinker, the best-selling author who has written extensively on human behavior, has released Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters (Viking). His thesis is that we actually think in ways that are sensible in the low-tech contexts in which we spend most of our lives. However, we fail to take advantage of the powerful tools of reasoning that are part of the human condition. These tools include logic, critical thinking, probability, correlation, causation and optimal ways to update beliefs. He concludes that developing these tools should become a standard part of the education curriculum to foster rational thinking at an early age.

 

Two philosophers have checked in on rationality with the recent publication of When Bad Thinking Happens to Good People: How Philosophy Can Save Us from Ourselves, by Stephen Nadler & Lawrence Schapiro (Princeton) This book reviews philosophy’s tools for better reasoning. The authors remind us that conspiracies and misinformation are not new and that some of our best strategies for dealing with them are not new either.  For example, epistemology (which addresses the nature of belief and knowledge) and ethics (the study of moral principles that should govern our behavior) can reduce bad thinking. Moreover, the book summarizes why philosophy’s millennia-old advice about how to lead a good, rational, and examined life may be the key for escaping our current predicament.

My favorite recent study on rationality is The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't, by Julia Galef (Portfolio). The author finds the best description of motivated reasoning as: “When we want something to be true we ask ourselves ‘Can I believe this.’ When we do not want something to be true we instead ask ‘Must I believe this’ searching for an excuse to reject it.”

This book keeps things simple by identifying two types of people. First are the “scouts” who achieve success by not defending one side of a contentious issue over the other. The scout method is to go out, survey the territory and come back with an accurate map. A scout must recognize when he/she has gone down the wrong road, be prepared to uncover blind spots, test assumptions and be willing to change course.

The rest of us have “soldier” mindsets.  From tribalism and bias to rationalizing in our personal lives and everything in between, loyal soldiers are driven to defend the ideas they most want to believe—and shoot down those they do not. Making scouts out of soldiers is equivalent to making independent thinkers out of Democrats and Republicans. It is the process of turning untrue opinions away from a soldier’s fear of negative defeat into the scout’s positive decision-making.  It is the open minded task of constructing the map of life with accuracy and fulfillment.

At the end of the day, there is little possibility that a majority of Americans will 

take to heart the advice in these books and reach a consensus on the major issues 

of the day.  One rational approach would be to stop arguing with those “soldiers” 

who are committed to irrational opinions and to stick with a positive message of 

well-developed and vetted facts in our public discourse. As time passes, reason 

and content that is true should win over public opinion.

I have found several sources of news to be above average in delivering rational, 

unbiased information. First, The News Hour with Shepard Smith on CNBC at 7 

pm is straightforward without the one-sided opinions found on other cable 

networks. Second, POLITICO is an online news source that covers American 

politics with excellent journalism that does not favor one party over the other.

There is no magic bullet that will cure us of bad thinking. Like weight loss and 

procrastination, we often identify the problem but choose the easier road of 

sticking with our routine. I will close with the advice of English philosopher John 

Locke: “It is ambition enough to be employed as a laborer in clearing the ground a 

little, and removing some of the rubbish that lies in the way to knowledge.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A WEALTH OF TALENT IN WASHINGTON COUNTY

 

“The meaning of life is to find your gift. The purpose of life is to give it away.”

— William Shakespeare

I was recently on a search committee to assemble a “dream team” of independent individuals to run for the Government Study Commission in the general election on November 2. This commentary will not focus on the Study Commission or the Row Office debacle or the pandemic. During our committee discussions, the array of talented individuals who live and work in Washington County overwhelmed me. Our county is truly a unique community that has reason to be proud of its citizens and their accomplishments.

What is most evident when one takes inventory of our local leaders is the number of qualified women who are responsible for all aspects of Washington County’s, political, legal, social and economic enterprises. While not quite the Amazon community of Greek mythology, Washington County women match their counterparts in skills and experience. Women are leaving their imprint on every endeavor throughout the community.

A few examples will highlight my point. At the head of the female pack is County Commissioner Chairman Diana Irey Vaughn. She has grown into her position as the most visible political figure in Washington County. While I often disagree with her conservative philosophy, there is no denying that she is willing to govern in a non-partisan fashion to improve Washington County. Her appointments to County Offices including Chief Clerk, Human Services and the law department, among others, have been women.  Most of the officials in the county’s clerical Row Offices are also women.

In the Washington County Court of Common Pleas, Judges Valerie Costanzo, Traci L. McDonald and retired Judge Katherine B. Emery continue the tradition of females in the judiciary.   At the Washington County Bar Association, Director, Kathy Sabol has transformed the WCBA  into a dynamic organization, often singled out as among the best in the Commonwealth. The WCBA is comprised of 480 attorneys and Judges, and 25% of its members are women.  Many of them contribute to organizations throughout the county.

Betsie Trew has served first as Executive Director and now as President  & CEO of the Washington County Community Foundation since 1998. Under her leadership, the assets of the Foundation have grown from less than $250,000 to more than $50 million. One of her goals is to help women advance through the ranks of nonprofit organizations and philanthropic giving. The present board of directors of WCCF includes eight dynamic women, all dedicated to helping those in need.

No local institution is more challenged and yet more important to the wellbeing of Washington County than our own Observer Reporter. No woman works harder than Executive Editor Liz Rogers.  Her staff insures that we receive a print newspaper each morning.  Ms. Rogers joined the paper in 1982 and worked her way “up the ladder” before assuming her present demanding responsibilities.  In addition to the OR, she oversees two other daily publications. In an era of reduced readership followed by major staff reductions, Washington County is among the few privileged communities still receiving a daily print newspaper.

In the field of education, women rule in Washington County. Until recent retirements, both Washington and Jefferson College and California University had female presidents. Many school district superintendents, principals, school board members and teachers are women.

In the area of nonprofit human services organizations, women abound in Washington County. The Drug and Alcohol Commission, Citizens Library, Teen Outreach, Commission on Aging, Food Bank, Communities Health Services, Literacy Council and the Symphony all have women directors or presidents. There are many other examples of dedicated female Washington County leaders who help insure that the health and welfare of our citizens remains in caring, competent hands.

While I have chosen to highlight female leadership within the county, of course many exceptional men have dedicated their careers to local public service as well. For all who make a commitment to serve, the pay is meager, and the hours are long.  The number of appointed local leaders who are at the top of their professions and yet decide to remain in Washington County is astounding. Many of them could easily leave for higher paying, more prestigious positions in larger communities.

At the municipal level of county government (mayors, supervisors, and council members), community volunteers (firefighters, nonprofits, schools and religious organizations) and commerce (business owners and their employees) are hundreds of Washington County residents who care deeply about their community. Few of these individuals receive the accolades they deserve.

Volunteer activities are especially noteworthy for providing a network of relationships and communications that influence good government. Without them giving freely of their time, Washington County would be a far less desirable place to live and work.

The more engaged communities are collectively, the healthier they become.   One of many examples is the willingness of Commissioners Diana Irey-Vaughn and Larry Maggi to let the voters decide on our form of local government at the general election on November 2.  This process is participatory, accountable, transparent, efficient, inclusive and is one that respects the rule of law.

Helen Keller once said: "The greatness of a community is most accurately measured by the compassionate actions of its members."  The local leaders and volunteers of Washington County, many with an impressive feminine footprint, give meaning to this thought for all of us.

 

POLITICAL POLARIZATION IS CAUSING THE BREAK-UP OF SOCIAL TRUST

Social trust is defined as trusting strangers we encounter in our day-to-day lives to follow certain social norms or fundamental moral expectations. With experience, we come to beleive that others will perform their appointed tasks with integrity and will not steal from us, not lie to us and not defraud us. Social trust is the glue that permits 333 million Americans to live together in a complex, diverse community. Unfortunately, in today’s society, many believe that social distrust of long established institutions and of our fellow citizens is the greatest threat to democracy in our nation.

Factors such as political corruption, racial/ethnic differences and economic inequality have always threatened social trust. What is new is the degree to which political polarization has also become a threat to social distrust, making it impossible for a healthy democracy to function.

Every day we observe out of control political polarization in action on cable news. On July 27, 2021, MSNBC and CNN were highlighting the emotional testimony of the capital police at the first Congressional hearing convened to determine the facts behind the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol. The witnesses described deadly attacks against them precipitated by the words and actions of then president Donald Trump.

At the same time, FOX NEWS and NEWSMAX were accusing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of causing the Capitol riot. They also featured segments attacking the Justice Department for ignoring the criminal rights of the Capitol rioters, who were labeled political prisoners by the commentators. 

These two political views could not have been further apart in addressing an important national issue. Neither political tribe trusts the other to present the facts accurately or to understand the other’s position. What is new and frightening is that we not only distrust politicians from the other party, we distrust those who voted for the other party.

As evidence that political polarization has a growing negative impact on social trust, consider three necessary careers in America that have been transformed from non-controversial employment into partisan lighting rods. Two years ago working as a public health administrator, an election official or a middle school history teacher guaranteed that one could perform a mundane public function while remaining out of the public eye. Since the pandemic, all three positions have been vilified through political polarization, thereby increasing our social distrust.

Public health was the first occupation to be politicized.  In the early months of the pandemic, Rick Bright, the former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, was removed from his federal position when he rejected pressure by Department of Health and Human Services officials to make hydroxychloroquine, touted by President Trump as a possible COVID-19 treatment, "widely available." More recently, a Missouri county health director left her job because of threats she received over measures put in place to curb the coronavirus pandemic, including a mask mandate. There are many other examples of trust in conscientious public health employees being challenged for partisan political motives.

Next to come under the public spotlight were state and local election officials. This occurred after the former president, while still in office,  attacked these government employees for refusing to disobey court orders and decertify election results. Public confidence in our elections often comes down to trust in nonpartisan election administrators. Since the 2020 election over 145 bills proposed by Republican state legislatures would reassign various powers of election officials to highly-partisan legislatures. These “legislative seizures” could threaten social trust by allowing elected lawmakers to overturn the will of voters and determine their own preferred winners of elections.

Lastly, public school history teachers recently became the political target of political polarization. Many educators want to present a balanced view of the history of American slavery, reconstruction, the Jim Crow era and slavery’s continuing impact on racism. Many parents who follow Republican talking points find this view of American history offensive. They are fighting to prevent this curriculum from being taught in the public schools, thereby perpetuating distrust in America’s story.

What is to be done to end this cold civil war we are waging against one another that has disintegrated social trust?  Primarily, we must confront the emotional urge to interpret all actions by the other side, political and non-political, as misguided. Thankfully, most social interactions are apolitical. We must not let our communities devolve into separate enclaves where citizens only live, work, shop and educate their children with members of their own political affiliation.

The one bright spot in promoting social trust has been the economy. Despite unprecedented high levels of political polarization, trust in capitalism and the American financial system has never been higher. After the recession, the progressive economist Joseph Stiglitz was quoted as saying: “It is trust more than money that makes the world go round.”

The supply of money has more than doubled since the recession and yet gold hording and other signs of economic mistrust are minimal. Economic expansion is fueled by trust in everything from on-line restaurant reviews to dating apps, car sharing and home sharing.

At its core, social distrust is sustained by the inability of many to accept a non-white majority in a country that once enslaved black people. We can only hope that this multi-generational prejudice can be offset by the move toward an open, sharing economy that views diversity as an asset.

 

WHY WE SHOULD SUPPORT A GOVERNMENT STUDY COMMISSION

  

County Commissioner Chairwoman, Diana Irey Vaughan, is to be commended for working with Vice Chair, Larry Maggi, in placing the important issue to adopt a government study commission before county voters on November 2, 2021. Her decision demonstrates leadership beyond partisan politics. In addition, the willingness to join forces with Common Pleas President Judge, John DiSalle, to solve an ongoing intransigent crisis in county governance (as detailed in Irey Vaughan’s recent op-ed) is exemplary. Moreover, if voters ultimately adopt a Home Rule form of government, the rewards will broaden far beyond solving the present intragovernmental dilemma.

Change to existing institutions, no matter how outdated or ineffective, is never easy. The Pennsylvania counties that have done the hard work and adopted Home Rule have been rewarded with the independence to formulate their own local form of government. They are free from the constraining cookie cutter requirements set forth in antiquated Pennsylvania statutes that often impede progress in Washington County. 

For a variety of reasons now is the time to establish a commission to study and recommend a form of Home Rule government in Washington County. While Republicans and Democrats may disagree on the final provisions of a Home Rule charter, the bi-partisan consensus to form a government study commission is encouraging.

Even under the best of times, the patronage-driven offices for civil filings (Prothonotary), criminal filings (Clerk of Courts), real estate filings (Recorder of Deeds) and wills and estates (Register of Wills) have long outlived their usefulness. Unfortunately, these are not the best of times. As pointed out by Commissioner Irey Vaughan, since assuming office in January of 2020, several Row Office officials have turned their benign clerical domains into political flashpoints with an agenda to disrupt the court system and impede the collection of county fees. In addition, the prior Clerk of Courts was accused and convicted of diverting a large sum of office receipts for his personal use.

Because these officials were elected, there is little that the Commissioners could do to rectify each situation.  A thief stayed in office until the end of his term.  Clerical operations were run like political fiefdoms. Row Office officials terminated competent employees to hire patronage hacks. These same officials ignored directives from the President Judge they were elected to serve.

It is important for voters to know there are three categories of Row Offices in Pennsylvania. First, are the clerical offices described above that exist solely to support the court system and serve no “check and balance” function in county government.  The public expectation of these offices is simply to perform their clerical responsibilities by processing the flow of legal documents necessary to keep the court system functioning.  Since January of 2020, these clerical offices have performed miserably and taken no action to improve.

Under a Home rule form of government these, court based, clerical, Row Offices would be replaced with a new Department of Court Records. This county function would be organized in accordance with best record keeping practices.  It would save money by eliminating overlapping functions and expenditures. The administrator of this new department and all clerical employees would be retained or hired based on merit.

The second category of Row Office includes the elected Coroner and Sheriff. Some will argue they should remain as elected positions in Washington County. In my view, both should be eliminated. The Coroner position should become the office of a modern appointed medical examiner, qualified to perform forensic pathology. The Sheriff should be a law enforcement official with extensive administrative experience, appointed by the Commissioners and the courts.

Lastly are the Row offices of District Attorney, Controller and Treasurer that should remain as elected positions. Each of these offices serves as a check and balance on county government. This independence ensures that criminal justice, county audits and the receiving and disbursement of county funds remain self-sufficient functions.

In addition to the above, a government study commission will have the opportunity to consider whether to recommend replacing the three-commissioner system authorized by state law with a single elected chief executive.  Under this model, adopted by Allegheny County and others, a countywide council would also be elected to work with the executive in conducting county business.  The executive would be a single voice and the council would reflect the very different needs and priorities of Washington County’s diverse communities. Of course, when the review is completed, the study commission could recommend retaining the three-commissioner system.

Lastly, a government study commission can assemble Home Rule recommendations that would make Washington County less dependent on state government in other important respects. The county could be given greater control in addressing:  a) economic development needs; b) the demands on county government for local services; and c) the ability to invoke a rapid response to address unique problems without waiting for Harrisburg to take action, including public health issues like the pandemic.

Sometimes it takes a political crisis to precipitate long overdue change. The citizens of Washington County should be dismayed at the former illegal activity and present unconscionable high jinx, taking place in the clerical Row Offices. Conversely, citizens should be heartened that there is a bi-partisan effort to resolve the problem.  Now is the time to take action and begin the process to adopt a modern, more efficient, form of government.

 

TRUMP SUPPORTERS, CULTURAL WARRIORS & THE MIDTERMS

To be a moderate in today’s political playground is difficult. Anyone who attempts to begin reasonable dialogue while playing in the partisan sandbox is likely to be attacked by bullies from both right wing Trump nativists and left wing cultural warriors. It is safer to stay at home (away from social media) and hope that the extremes cancel each other out before they burn down the public park.

Democrats and Republicans are experiencing a similar problem of vocal extremists seeking to control each party’s messaging. On the right, traditional conservative Republicans are being “primaried” out of office by neophyte candidates with few political credentials other than their loyalty to Donald Trump. These candidates do not understand or care about public policy. Their forte is energizing the Trump base and attacking all others.

On the left are cultural activists who have replaced the normal push for incremental cultural change with an accelerated cultural agenda. Under this trend, Democrats are judged not only by the public policies they support, but also by the extent they are “woke” on important social issues. This includes the call to defund the police, the recognition of white privlege and institutional racism and embracing the extreme element of the Me Too movement.

What is different about the two political extremes is that most Republicans have welcomed the gravitation to Trumpism as a Faustian bargain designed to win back Congress in 2022. The Republican Party is laser- focused and will tolerate little dissent among its leadership on the road to gain short-term political advantages.

Conversely, all Democrats are not equally sold on the cultural wars. While activist progressives are proud to have pushed the Democratic Party toward the left, a more measured opposition wants to slow the process down to keep moderates and Independents under the Democratic tent. 

In today’s political climate, the extremist dilemma is a greater obstacle to gaining and keeping political power for Democrats than for Republicans. By refusing to exercise moderation, Republicans have kept their coalition together and gained strength among voters who are against one or more progressive cultural positions. On the other hand, when the Democratic Party moves further to the left, it turns off voters afraid of being labeled left-wing extremists or socialists. Better to be considered a patriot in favor of God & Country than to have the neighbors believe you are a closet communist.

In my view, winning elections remains the ultimate prize, not changing social mores faster than the average American can absorb. I am in the same camp as the journalist Kevin Drum, a long-time writer for the ultra-liberal publication Mother Jones. In a recent article, he wrote: “Being personally happy means nothing in politics. What matters is what the median voter feels and Democrats have been moving further and further away from the median voter for years.” (If You Hate the Cultural Wars, Blame Liberals, July 3, 2021)

Mr. Drum does a back of the envelope analysis to conclude that “Despite endless hopeful invocations of ‘but polls show that people like our positions,’ the truth is that the Democratic party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plan scary.” Moderate voters feel uncomfortable that “their entire lives are being held up to a spotlight and found wanting.”

The recent NYC Democratic Primary has provided an interesting snapshot of the status of more moderate Democratic politics. During the campaign, the progressive leanings of the present mayor, Bill de Blasio, or the firebrand Bronx Congresswoman, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, were nowhere in evidence. Eric Adams, a former NYPD captain, won the primary. His campaign message was moderate and straight forward, based on recovery from the pandemic and controlling violent crime rates.

The midterm elections in 2022 will determine whether the Biden administration is able to effectively govern in the last two years of his term. Democrats cannot forget that the flood of new voters who helped power Obama to his two historic wins fell away in the midterms.  This permitted Republicans to control Congress and functionally end Obama’s ability to pass legislation.  For Biden to avoid this result several factors are important.

First, it is impossible to win in 2022 without the Democratic base fully engaged. Accordingly, Biden is correct in honoring his commitments to his progressive base. However, he should emphasis those policies, like infrastructure, that least offend moderates and Independents.

Second, Democrats must turn the anti-democratic, anti-immigration and anti-equality messaging of Trumpism to its advantage with the same fervor as when Trump was in office. The more successful Trump is in recruiting unqualified candidates in Republican primaries the better Democrats will do in the general elections.

Third, Democrats must turn Republican attempts to limit voting into a central campaign issue so that young voters and voters of color have a stake in overcoming any voting impediments to prove that their voices matter.

Fourth, analysts believe that Democrats will need to capture about 52% of the national popular vote to maintain a House majority. This can only be accomplished if many of the marginal Democratic voters who participated in the 2020 election remain in the electorate.

Republicans have learned that extremism can win local and state elections.  Democrats must counter by moderating their rhetoric on sensitive social issues. Keeping moderates and Independents engaged is the key to maintaining Democratic control of Congress in 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFTER THE PANDEMIC OUR LIVES WILL IMPROVE

 

In 2016, the Stanford University historian, Walter Scheidel, published a lengthy and somber book. His central thesis was that throughout recorded history the most horrendous historic shocks resulted in the most powerful transformations to society, including income leveling. Scheidel’s work traces innumerable examples of warfare, revolution, state failures and pandemics to show an unmistakable pattern.  In the aftermath of each catastrophic event, societies dramatically changed and the income gap between rich and poor diminished. (The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century, Walter Scheidel, 2016)

Some of the more recognizable incidents covered by Scheidel were the Roman collapse, the Black Death, the Thirty Years War, the Great Depression and the Second World War.  Following each example, societies were reordered and wealth underwent drastic leveling.

Scheidel had no way of knowing that within three years of his publication date, COVID-19 would engulf the world and provide him with a modern laboratory to test his theories. In recent interviews, Scheidel has concluded that the 2020 Pandemic will not have the disruptive effect of the Black Death where a third of humanity lost their lives.   Nor has the economic damage been as severe as the Great Depression. 

While the recent virus was not as unsettling as other catastrophic events, major transitions are taking shape. The American economy is clearly on a vaccine and stimulus-induced upturn following the pandemic slump. This recovery provides the opportunity to establish many social programs that were only pipe dreams before the pandemic.  Moreover, social and work related changes have occurred that no one could have predicted. The remainder of this commentary will summarize these transformations, which are materializing both with and without governmental intervention.

First, a look at post-pandemic government initiatives.  In the past, America has not been able to turn its economic strength into progress on a host of social problems such as education, healthcare and the environment.  There is hope that this time will be different.

The Rescue Plan. On March 11, 2021, President Biden signed a 1.9 trillion dollar relief bill that provided for $1,400 per-person checks, increased the Child Tax Credits, extended unemployment insurance; provided small business support and lowered health care insurance premiums.

The Jobs Plan.  President Biden’s jobs initiative is an infrastructure plan on steroids. It would repair highways, rebuild bridges, upgrade ports and modernize airports and transit systems.  It would deliver clean drinking water, a renewed electric grid and high-speed broadband to all Americans. The effort includes the building and retrofitting of more than 2 million homes and commercial buildings. Schools and child-care facilities would be modernized, along with veterans’ hospitals and federal buildings.

The Jobs Plan includes proposals to create jobs and raise wages for crucial homecare workers. Essential manufacturing would be revitalized. U.S. supply chains would be made less vulnerable to war and future catastrophes. Extensive job training programs would be developed for the information age economy. Lastly, the overall goal is to create good quality jobs that pay prevailing wages.

The Families Plan. The third prong of the Biden “renaissance” for America is a significant investment in our children, our families and our economic future. Much of the plan includes programs that have existed in other western nations for decades.

On education there are proposals to provide universal high quality pre-school and two years of free community college. Direct support will be provided so that no family spends more than seven percent of their income on child-care. A national paid family and medical leave program is also part of the proposal.

The Jobs and Families Plans will require Congressional action to become law.  Recent polls demonstrate that a majority of both plans have overwhelming support among Americans.

In addition to the above, there are important post-pandemic transformations that have occurred without governmental involvement. Each will have a profound effect on the way we live and work.   

● The U.S. personal saving rate, the percentage of people’s income remaining each month after taxes and spending, skyrocketed from a 7% average to a record 32.2% in April 2021.

● The middle class gained wealth as its largest asset, the family home, was worth 24% more in May than a year ago.

● Business productivity has increased based on cost savings during the pandemic and the newfound benefits of digitization.  For example, in healthcare the adoption of telemedicine during the pandemic should drive productivity gains in medicine for years.

● Employees have gained more empowerment in deciding when, where and how they perform their work responsibilities. This happened after the pandemic created a natural experiment in letting them work from home.

● In order to attract and retain good employees, employers must now offer a living wage and benefits like paid sick leave.

● A third of Americans reported positive impacts on their relationships, as they were able to spend more time with spouses and children.

● Two-thirds of Americans report making lifestyle changes since the pandemic, including more time spent outdoors, more exercise and improved sleep patterns.

There is no denying that the past year has been one of loss, hardship and suffering for many of our fellow citizens. However, the beneficial events predicted by Walter Scheidel following a global catastrophe have begun to appear.  We must not squander this opportunity to improve our long-term economic and social standing.